Tuesday Football Tips: Add Chiellini in 11/1 shots treble

Giorgio Chiellini
Giorgio Chiellini can be a surprise shooter in Italy v Spain

Paul Higham's latest Bet Builder column picks out a trio of shooting stars for Italy v Spain including the unlikely face of Giorgio Chiellini.

"Olmo and Chiesa have fantastic records for shots on target so far, while the Swiss carved out four headers against Spain and Chiellini can take advantage of their defensive frailties."

Back Olmo, Chiesa & Chiellini 1+ shots on target in Italy v Spain with Bet Builder at around 12.011/1

Italy v Spain
Tuesday 6 July 20:00 BST kick-off
Live on BBC One

It's a classic international football fixture on Tuesday as Italy face Spain at Wembley for a place in the Euro 2020 final.

Roberto Mancini's side are 2.56/4 favourites to win the game in 90 minutes, with Spain 3.185/40 and the draw, which is bound to prove a popular bet, priced at 3.211/5.

Although I'll be siding with the Azzurri I wouldn't be confident enough to say they'll do the job in regulation time, and an extra 30 minutes and perhaps even penalties will be needed to separate these two old rivals.

Italy have looked the team to beat from the opening game, although England can rightly have a thing or two to say about that, but they've won only two of the last 14 meetings.

These two are battling it out in the knockouts for the fourth straight Euros, with Spain getting through in 2008 and winning the 2012 final before Italy got one back on them in France in 2016.

Not many are predicting goals here, even though a glance at the stats sees Italy (20.2) and Spain (19) rank first and second for shots per game so far in Euro 2020, so it makes sense to head for that market to carve out our Bet Builder column.

Spain come into the game as top scorers after big wins over Slovakia and that epic against Croatia, but ironically their main problem has been converting chances - with Dani Olmo and Gerard Moreno in particular struggling as they've had the most shots (16 and 15 respectively) without scoring at the tournament.

But it's Olmo in fact who provides us with some value as despite being largely used as a sub, he's still had the most shots out of anyone in the Spain squad with 17 so far and six on target - which equates to just under six shots and just over two on target per 90 minutes.

With Pablo Sarabia an injury doubt, Olmo would start in his place, but regardless he's still well capable of getting at least one on target at 1.574/7 even against this Italian defence.

Federico Chiesa is next man up, after forcing his way into the starting XI for the Belgium game following a super sub display against Austria - he tallied five shots and one on target against the Red Devils.

That followed two shots on target against Austria in just 37 minutes and four shots with one hitting the target against Wales. 1.574/7 on just one more on target here seems a simple enough task.

If our first two are pretty much gimmes, we're swinging for the fences with the third leg, but stay with me as it is a semi-final so we're looking to bump up our return with none other than grizzled old Italy defender Giorgio Chiellini.

The Azzurri skipper is a whopping 4.216/5 to hit the target here, something he's already done once in the tournament from his two efforts on goal.

He's even had a goal disallowed in this tournament already.

Chiellini scored against Spain at Euro 2016 and Luis Enrique's side haven't exactly looked solid at the back from set pieces, something which Switzerland played on as they created four headed chances from dead balls in the quarters.

Leonardo Bonucci has had three shots this tournament and also had a goal ruled out and both he and his centre back partner to have a shot on target is a tasty double that comes in at around 19.018/1 with Bet Builder if you're feeling extra brave.

For us though, we're sticking with the skipper to hit the target as the third man in our trio for the recommended Bet Builder levelling out at around 12.011/1.

Read Mark O'Haire's match preview for Italy v Spain.

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COLUMN P/L

Staked: 101pts
Returned: 88.38pts
P/L: -12.62pts

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