Tuesday Football Tips: Stindl too big to trouble card-happy ref

Lars Stindl
Lars Stindl: Booked in eight of 28 starts this season

A strict referee makes the card markets appeal in Manchester City v Borussia Monchengladbach on Tuesday and Andy Schooler has a 4/1 selection.

"No-one at the club has more cards than Stindl this season - he has nine in 35 appearances. Narrow it down to starts and it’s eight in 28 for Gladbach’s top scorer."

Back Lars Stindl to be booked @ 4/1 (Sportsbook)

Manchester City v Borussia Monchengladbach
Tuesday 16 March, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 2

Manchester City's games aren't exactly known for cards but those markets do look worth exploring for Tuesday night's Champions League tie in Budapest.

The main reason for this is Russian referee Sergey Karasev, who has long been one of the strictest in card terms in the UEFA club competitions.

Using the system of 10 points for a yellow card, 25 for a straight red and 35 for a two-yellows red, he's produced over 30 booking points in 16 of his last 17 UEFA club appointments, a figure which should perk the interest of card bettors.

There are several potential angles.

That often-hit mark of over 30 booking points is on offer at 7/5 which statistically looks a very good bet, although City's lack of cards across the season has to be the worry there. Gladbach are better, averaging over two per game in the Bundesliga - only three German sides have seen more yellows.

A red card is chalked up at 11/2 which reflects the state of the tie - Gladbach could be forgiven for thinking it's all but over having lost the 'home' leg 2-0. Maybe they'll ease off if it's clear they are heading for the exit door.

However, again the official's history suggests this is a big price - Karasev has shown a red in four of his last seven UEFA club matches. Stretch things out over a longer period and the stat is seven of 16.

The bet I like the most though is the 4/1 offered about Gladbach forward Lars Stindl to be booked.

No-one at the club has more cards than Stindl this season - he has nine in 35 appearances. Narrow it down to starts and it's eight in 28 for Gladbach's top scorer, who was sent off against City in the sides' 2016 Champions League meeting.

That immediately makes 4/1 look big. Throw in the card-happy ref and the fact that this looks set to be a frustrating night if you are a Gladbach forward - City dominated the first leg - and a case is made.

You may also want to consider the 14/1 available about Stindl being the first player to be booked.

He's landed this bet in three of his last 18 starts, picking up cards after 2, 10 and 32 minutes.

Gladbach need to start fast if they are going to get back into the tie so they can be expected to be putting themselves about in the early stages.

There's another yellow card recommendation to read about in Kevin Hatchard's preview

Column P/L

Staked: 1pt
Returned: 0pts
P/L: -1pt

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