With a card-happy referee in charge, Andy Schooler has picked out a related 4/1 shot for Real Madrid v Liverpool on Tuesday night.
"It’s not hard seeing him have to 'take one for the team' given Liverpool’s ability to counter-attack, while midfield is sure to be a key battleground."
Real Madrid v Liverpool
Tuesday 6 April, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 2
Three successive wins without conceding, plus a decent-looking Champions League draw which keeps them away from Manchester City, Bayern and PSG before the final, have Liverpool bubbling once more.
Just like 2004/05, it's been a tough season but given their experience and pedigree it's not hard to make a case for them lifting the trophy in Istanbul in May.
With life having returned to the Reds' joyous attack, Real Madrid are likely in for a tough test of their defensive credentials, particularly given captain Sergio Ramos is ruled out due to injury.
That will likely mean midfielders Casemiro and Toni Kroos are tasked with paying great attention to the Reds' dangermen whenever they look to break.
With German referee Felix Brych well known for his ability to pull out the cards - he's shown four or more in 23 of his last 29 UEFA club appointments - both men warrant consideration in the 'to be booked' market.
Casemiro is his usual short price here and there looks little value in the 7/5 on offer.
However, Kroos is out at 4/1 which does look big.
The World Cup winner has been carded in eight of his 30 starts this season for Real and while cards are easier to come by in Spain than Germany, Brych's record in European football suggests Kroos is overpriced.
It's not hard seeing him have to 'take one for the team' given Liverpool's ability to counter-attack, while midfield is sure to be a key battleground with Fabinho and Kroos' former Bayern Munich team-mate Thiago likely to be operating in that area for the visitors.
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