Saturday Football Tips: Bank on Bailey in Villa v Newcastle

Dean Smith
Dean Smith's Villa have seen both teams score in 10 of their last 11 games
  • Aston Villa vs Newcastle United
  • Sat 21 Aug, 15:00

Aston Villa new boy Leon Bailey forms the basis of our football props column's Bet Builder on Saturday...

"Bailey managed 3+ shots in 16 of his 34 games for Bayer Leverkusen last season in the Bundesliga."

New signing Leon Bailey is set for his first start for Aston Villa on Saturday and the Jamaican is the bedrock of this column's Bet Builder.

Bailey managed 3+ shots in 16 of his 34 games for Bayer Leverkusen last season in the Bundesliga and after a big-money move, he's expected to fill at least some of the void left by the departure of Jack Grealish.

He impressed as a substitute last week at Watford as Villa's unlikely comeback from 3-0 down eventually fell a goal short.

Bailey managed two shots in his 31 minutes on the pitch and he can expect to go a least one better against a shaky Newcastle defence which conceded four goals at home to West Ham last weekend.

Only West Brom and Burnley conceded more shots on goal last season than Newcastle, so clearly there's potential for Bailey to hit 3+ shots - and a price of 11/8 looks too big.

While on the subject of that leaky Newcastle defence, it's worth pointing out that seven of their last 10 league games have now seen both teams score.

For all their defensive issues, the Magpies looked threatening going forward last week with Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin both potent.

Joe Willock may be added into the starting XI this week too and given how Villa shipped three at Watford last week, it's not hard to see both teams finding the net.

The hosts will be without Ollie Watkins but they still have a proven goalscorer in Danny Ings up front, plus support from Bailey and Emi Buendia.

Their BTTS stats are even better - it's now 10 of the last 11 which have landed the bet.

BTTS and Bailey 3+ shots gives us a tasty price of 3.73.

Click here for our Saturday football 'cheat sheet'!

Column P/L 2021/22

Staked: 8pts
Returned: 5.58pts
P/L: -2.42pts

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