Serie A Tips: Don't fall for Fiorentina amid midweek thrillers

Viola vastly over-rated

Fiorentina v Sassuolo
Wednesday, 19:45
Live on Betfair Live Video

I appreciate that, if this column was simply about the magnitude of game, I'd be analysing the Inter v Napoli game, but in all honesty I can't see an edge there. I still see Inter as the team that will end on top at the end of the season, and regard Napoli as a serious challenger, but at the prices I'm not too interested.

I am intrigued, though, by the prospect of backing Sassuolo at 3.02/1 to beat an awful Fiorentina. La Viola did us a favour by capitulating in Bergamo at the weekend, and now they face another tough ask against a team which continues to exceed all expectations.

Fiorentina have won just twice in Serie A this season, and have now lost four of their last six, while Sassuolo look rock solid, and have kept five clean sheets in their last six games, with only Inter finding a way past them in their convincing win. That's more clean sheets since the start of November than any team in Europe's top five Leagues, and that's a wonderful achievement by a club of Sassuolo's resources.

So the best defence in Europe heads to a team that has scored 11 goals so far in 11 Serie A games, and we can back the visitors at 3.02/1? I like the sound of that, and that's why Sassuolo, rather than Inter or Napoli, are the best bet of the midweek selections.

Entertaining Juve-Atalanta

Juventus v Atalanta
Wednesday, 17:30
Live on Premier Sports 1 and Betfair Live Video

There's a bumper night of Serie A action on Wednesday, as Milan's draw against Parma at the weekend means that the top few teams have been drawn closer together, and it feels as if much can change between now and Christmas, with any one of six teams potentially in position to be top of the table going into a short winter break.

Juventus are one of those, but Atalanta aren't, after their excellent opening to the campaign turned a bit sloppy. The two go head to head in Turin, and a glance at Atalanta's recent record against the Champions will not fill their supporters with hope.

Atalanta haven't won away at Juve since a Claudio Caniggia goal in October 1989, which will give you some idea of the time that it has been.

Even in these glorious Gasperini days, Juve have mostly been a bridge too far.

After bouncing back to form and doing this column a favour against Fiorentina last time, Atalanta look backable at 4.216/5 for the win and at just over even money with a 0.5 goal start on the Asian Handicap. I'm just about put off both of those bets, though, by the fact that a deeply flawed Juve are improving under Andrea Pirlo.

Juve have won six of their last seven in all competitions, and that's the sort of form that I can't ignore, for all that I admire Atalanta. I'm more interested in Atalanta's return to goalscoring form at the weekend, and for me that makes Over 3.5 Goals a really attractive bet.

We know about Atalanta's potential in front of goal when in form, and Juve have scored 3 goals in 3 of their last 4. They are a long way from perfect at the back, but very good going forward. 'Overs' is the confident pick from me, particularly at the price.

More Overs for Udinese

Udinese v Crotone
Tuesday, 17:30
Live on Premier Sports 1 and Betfair Live Video

On Tuesday night, I'm also happy to take a look at a bet which involves goals, and also involves two teams who featured in this column last Friday, with very different results.

My hunch about Udinese proved to be right. They played really well in Turin, and ended up winning a shootout, while Crotone overturned Spezia 4-1 in a result which left me open mouthed. I think that they'll still be relegated, but that was an admirable effort.

The two go head to head in Udine on Tuesday, and given the form that they're both in, I expect goals again. Over 3.5 is priced at 3.711/4 and that looks big, as does the odds against about their being Over 2.5.

Crotone's last two games have gone over that mark, as have Udinese's last two, and while that might be a small sample size, and while there's a chance that Crotone will come and defend for their lives, I think that any kind of early goal will lead to another open game. It's worth the risk at the prices. And don't forget, the majority of Serie A action will be on Wednesday, but this is a TUESDAY night game.