Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides result and scoreline predictions in Serie A as two former Italy team-mates face off...
"Two former Italy team-mates and members of AC Milan's 2007 Champions League winning side meet at Ciro Vigorito on Saturday, with Andrea Pirlo attempting to get the better of the man whose opening goal he set up on that evening."
Inter to draw level with Sassuolo
Sassuolo kept their strong start going last weekend by taking their chances at Verona, but the visit of Inter may stop them in their tracks. The Nerazzurri are in danger of finishing bottom of their Champions League group, but that may make them even more determined to pick up points back in Serie A and Infogol backs them to follow a potent attacking display against Torino with more goals here.
Back the 1-2 @ 9.809/1
Juve to spoil Inzaghi's reunion with Pirlo
Two former Italy team-mates and members of AC Milan's 2007 Champions League winning side meet at Ciro Vigorito on Saturday, with Andrea Pirlo attempting to get the better of the man whose opening goal he set up on that evening. Pippo Inzaghi's Benevento picked up a big win at Fiorentina last time out, but this may be a bridge to far for the hosts with Infogol giving Juve a 71% chance of victory.
Back the 0-3 @ 10.009/1
Atalanta to build on win at Anfield
Atalanta kept their Champions League hopes very much alive with a win away to Liverpool on Wednesday, keeping the Reds' attack uncharacteristically quiet, and can enjoy similar success against a Verona side with the worst record in front of goal in Italy's top 10. Berat Djimsiti's stoppage-time winner gave the hosts victory in the corresponding game last season, but Infogol's model expects this one to be easier for Gian Piero Gasperini's men.
Back the 3-0 @ 10.50
Lazio to continue push up the table
Lazio continued their upward trend with a win over Zenit St Petersburg in the Champions League in midweek, and they're well-placed to enjoy more success as Udinese come to the Olimpico. The visitors have averaged 0.68 xGF across their last three league games and drew a blank in the Coppa Italia on Wednesday, so Simone Inzaghi's hosts should be confident of three points.
Back the 3-0 @ 16.0015/1
Milan to swat aside Fiorentina
Cesare Prandelli earned the first win of his second Viola spell in midweek, but that victory over Udinese in the cup is unlikely to be followed by another at the San Siro. Hosts Milan stayed top with a big win at Napoli last weekend, and Europa League responsibilities in France are unlikely to stop them in their tracks domestically with Infogol giving them a 59% chance of success.
Back the 3-0 @ 15.50
Bologna to climb towards top half with victory
Bologna are a little worse off than their performances suggest, sitting in the bottom half with nine points from eight games, but can push upward when they take on winless Crotone at home. The visitors have averaged 0.65 xGF across their last three league outings, and Infogol's model gives them just a 19% chance of picking up a first Serie A win of the season at Renato Dall'Ara.
Back the 2-1 @ 8.4015/2
Cagliari to keep tidy home form going
Cagliari have been much better at home than on the road this term, picking up six points from a possible nine at Sardegna Arena and eliminating Verona from the Coppa Italia, and they can earn a fourth straight home win in all competitions as Spezia come to town. Infogol gives the hosts a 56% chance of victory, though we can expect a tight game between two sides currently keeping themselves clear of danger.
Back the 2-1 @ 9.4017/2
Napoli to hand Roma their first on-pitch defeat
Napoli v Roma
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Roma would be unbeaten this season were it not for the player registration issue which saw Verona handed a 3-0 result in September, but Napoli are well-placed to hand Paulo Fonseca's side their first 'proper' loss of the Serie A season. The hosts are expected to edge a tight game, based on Infogol's model, and a repeat of last season's 2-1 home win isn't out of the question.
Back the 2-1 @ 9.4017/2
Torino to lift themselves out of the bottom three
Defensive fragility has harmed Torino this season, with no team conceding more in Italy's top tier, but back-to-back home clean sheets in the league and cup are a positive sign. Marco Giampaolo's side host their manager's former club Sampdoria, who came from behind to win in Turin last term, but Infogol is backing the hosts to earn a vital win.
Back the 2-1 @ 9.4017/2
Genoa to leapfrog Parma with home win
The final game of the weekend is one with huge implications for the bottom three, as Genoa and Parma both chase what would only be a second league win of the campaign. The visitors won 4-1 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris last term, plunging Genoa into a relegation scrap which they escaped by the skin of the teeth, and even a home win this time - as anticipated by Infogol's model - might not be enough to stop this being a long season.
Back the 2-1 @ 10.50
Sassuolo v Inter Milan: Back the 1-2 @ 9.809/1
Benevento v Juventus: Back the 0-3 @ 10.009/1
Atalanta v Verona: Back the 3-0 @ 10.50
Lazio v Udinese: Back the 3-0 @ 16.0015/1
AC Milan v Fiorentina: Back the 3-0 @ 15.50
Bologna v Crotone: Back the 2-1 @ 8.4015/2
Cagliari v Spezia: Back the 2-1 @ 9.4017/2
Napoli v Roma: Back the 2-1 @ 9.4017/2
Torino v Sampdoria: Back the 2-1 @ 9.4017/2
Genoa v Parma: Back the 2-1 @ 10.50