Serie A Correct Score Predictor with Infogol: Tips for every fixture of GW3

Cristiano Ronaldo Juventus
Cristiano Ronaldo helped Juventus leave Rome with a point last time out

Who will be this weekend's winners and losers in Serie A? Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides result and scoreline predictions as Andrea Pirlo's Juventus face a big test...

"Milan haven’t given their opponents a sniff in the league this season, doing a professional job against both Bologna and Crotone, and Spezia will need to be on their best form to stand a chance against a team with a 77% chance of victory based on Infogol’s model."

Fiorentina to return to winning ways

Fiorentina v Sampdoria
Friday, 19:45
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Fiorentina's defeat at Inter last weekend will have been hard to take, considering they led 3-2 with five minutes remaining, but the creativity of Franck Ribéry will make them confident of producing enough to beat a Sampdoria side coming off a defeat of its own. Claudio Ranieri's side dropped points at home to Benevento, and will need to tighten up against a Viola side who have a 53% chance of victory on Infogol's model.

Back the 2-1 @ 8/19.00

Sassuolo to beat another promoted side

Sassuolo v Crotone
Saturday, 14:00
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After a dominant performance in victory over Spezia last weekend, Sassuolo play host to another of the promoted sides as Crotone come to the MAPEI Stadium. Having taken 14 points from 18 against promoted sides last season, the hosts will feel confident of victory. Infogol gives Roberto de Zerbi's men a 65% chance of a victory which can temporarily take them top of Serie A, with a 53% chance of both teams scoring.

Back the 2-1 @ 8/18.80

Genoa given chance to rebound from tough trip to Napoli

Genoa v Torino
Saturday, 17:00
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While Genoa weren't quite as bad as the 6-0 scoreline suggests, they were comprehensively second-best at Napoli last week and will need a response. Their opponents, Torino, are coming off back-to-back losses and may provide Rolando Maran's team with the perfect tonic. Due to the impact of Covid-19 on the Genoa squad, odds are not available for this game, but Infogol's model suggests in normal circumstances it would result in a home win.

Roma to get first win in Udine

Udinese v Roma
Saturday, 19:45
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Roma's slow start is a little misleading, with a forfeit against Verona followed by a 2-2 draw at home to champions Juventus, and Infogol gives them a near-50% chance of victory at Friuli. Luca Gotti's team have lost their first two games without scoring a goal, though the xG suggests they deserved more against Spezia, but Roma will be confident of winning to nil after doing the same last season.

Back the 0-2 @ 8/18.80

Atalanta goal machine to keep firing

Atalanta v Cagliari
Sunday, 11:30
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Atalanta have picked up where they left off last season, scoring eight goals in their first two away games, and are favourites to put Cagliari to the sword in their home opener. Infogol's model anticipates a relatively tight scoreline, but if Gian Piero Gasperini's side continue to outperform their xG then anything's possible.

Back the 2-1 @ 9/25.50

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Benevento's leaky defence to cost them against Bologna

Benevento v Bologna
Sunday, 14:00
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Benevento have averaged 2.7 xGA across their first two games, and won't feel confident of a shut-out against a Bologna side who put four past 10-man Parma last time out. Pippo Inzaghi's hosts have taken their chances in front of goal this season, but Infogol anticipates an away win at Ciro Vigorito with both teams finding the net.

Back the 1-2 @ 15/2

Lazio's tough start to continue against Inter

Lazio v Inter Milan
Sunday, 14:00
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Matches against two of last season's top three in the first three games ensured things would be tough for Lazio, and they were unlucky to lose the first of these after matching Atalanta on shots and xG. Simone Inzaghi's side came from behind to win the corresponding fixture last season, but Inter have looked capable of scoring whenever they want to at the moment.

Back the 1-2 @ 15/2

Parma to end Verona's 100% start

Parma v Verona
Sunday, 14:00
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Verona's 100% start is deceptive, comprising a walkover against Roma and a victory from a game against Udinese in which they recorded just two shots on target and an xG less than one third of their opponents'. Despite losing their first two games, Parma will have earmarked this game as an opportunity to get points on the board despite losing twice to Ivan Jurić team last season.

Back the 2-0 @ 11/1

Milan to swat aside Spezia

AC Milan v Spezia
Sunday, 17:00
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Milan haven't given their opponents a sniff in the league this season, doing a professional job against both Bologna and Crotone, and Spezia will need to be on their best form to stand a chance against a team with a 77% chance of victory based on Infogol's model. Even allowing for a potential Europa League hangover, the hosts should have too much for Vincenzo Italiano's men.

Back the 3-0 @ 13/2

Pirlo's Juve to make statement by beating in-form Napoli

Juventus v Napoli
Sunday, 19:45
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Andrea Pirlo has his first big test at the Juventus Stadium, welcoming a Napoli side coming off a 6-0 win against Genoa. Cristiano Ronaldo's double earned Juve a point at Roma last time out, but last season's stoppage-time victory can give the hosts motivation to turn a narrow edge on Infogol's model into a crucial three points against the team which beat them in the 2020 Coppa Italia final.

Back the 2-1 @ 7/1

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