Serie A Correct Score Predictor with Infogol: Tips for every fixture of GW28

Parma to go back-to-back

Parma v Genoa
Friday, 19:45
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Had Parma lost to Roma last weekend, they might have been forced to give up hope of survival. Instead, though, they secured a momentous win and can potentially go into the international break level with 17th-place Cagliari. Infogol backs Roberto D'Aversa's side against a Genoa team with a league-worst 0.83 xGF away from home, and it would mean back-to-back wins for the first time this season.

Back the 2-0 @ 12.5023/2

Crotone to miss opportunity against Bologna

Crotone v Bologna
Saturday, 14:00
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Crotone have 11 games left to make up a seven-point gap to safety, which would be less daunting if they had more than 15 points all season long. A home meeting with Bologna offers a chance to avenge a 1-0 defeat at Renato Dall'Ara, but Infogol's model favours the visitors against a home defence which has averaged 1.98 xGA per game all season long.

Back the 1-2 @ 9.4017/2

Spezia to push towards safety

Spezia v Cagliari
Saturday, 17:00
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Cagliari can close to within three points of Spezia with a win on Saturday, but the hosts' performances at Ezio Scida will make them believe they can end the weekend with the gap between the sides extended. Vincenzo Italiano's side have been better than their 11 points at home suggest, and this - coupled with their opponents' 1.82 xGA per game on the road - explains why Infogol makes Spezia favourites for victory.

Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1

Inter to maintain league's best home record

Inter Milan v Sassuolo
Saturday, 19:45
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A run of eight straight wins means the Scudetto is Inter's to lose, and Infogol expects them to complete a league double over Sassuolo to end the weekend at least nine points clear at the top. Two goals in the first 20 minutes turned the reverse fixture into a procession, and the Neroverdi's 1.77 xGA away from home suggests they'll be up against it in Milan on Saturday night.

Back the 2-1 @ 8.808/1

Atalanta to bounce back after European exit

Verona v Atalanta
Sunday, 11:30
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After failing to upset the odds against Real Madrid in the Champions League, Atalanta's focus returns to Serie A and a tricky trip to Verona. Goals from Miguel Veloso and Mattia Zaccagni gave Ivan Jurić's side a shock victory in Bergamo before the turn of the year, but Infogol expects Gian Piero Gasperini's men to exact their revenge to earn an eighth away win from 14 to stay in the top four picture.

Back the 0-2 @ 9.4017/2

Juve to comfortably beat Benevento

Juventus v Benevento
Sunday, 14:00
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Benevento have been outrunning xG away from home, but an average of 0.62 xGF and 1.85 xGA across their last three suggests Juventus should be confident of three points. For their part, Juve are coming off three straight league victories, while their 0.92 xGA average at the Allianz Stadium represents the best return from any home side in Serie A this term.

Back the 3-0 @ 8.207/1

Away weaknesses to keep Torino in trouble

Sampdoria v Torino
Sunday, 14:00
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Torino's away xGA of 1.92 per game is the third-worst in Serie A, and has played a part in Davide Nicola's side remaining in the bottom three ahead of this weekend's trip to Luigi Ferraris. A lot has changed since Sampdoria won last season's corresponding fixture via a single Manolo Gabbiadini goal, but Samp are unbeaten in three against the team from Turin and Infogol's model backs them to make it four.

Back the 2-1 @ 9.809/1

Udinese to further dent Lazio's European push

Udinese v Lazio
Sunday, 14:00
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Lazio's unreliability away from home has left their European hopes hanging by a thread, with Simone Inzaghi's team losing their last three away from the Olimpico. A European exit on top of those league reverses leaves them in an unenviable position ahead of a trip to Friuli, where Infogol is backing Luca Gotti's defensively solid hosts to take the poijnts and complete a league double over their opponents.

Back the 2-0 @ 19.5037/2

Milan to continue away strength

Fiorentina v AC Milan
Sunday, 17:00
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Last weekend's defeat at home to Napoli means Milan's title challenge is close to over, but they can regain some pride in Florence to maintain their status as Inter's closest challengers. Stefano Pioli's side still have the league's best away points tally, even if a 1.89 xGF record away from the San Siro is less than that of their local rivals, and Infogol's model anticipates an away win even without the suspended Ante Rebić.

Back the 1-2 @ 9.4017/2

Roma to keep top four hopes alive

Roma v Napoli
Sunday, 19:45
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Infogol's Expected Goals table has Roma sitting second in the league, but Paulo Fonseca's team instead find themselves fighting for a top four spot, if that. They'll need to call upon some impressive home form as they take on a Napoli side level on points with them but with a game in hand. Infogol gives the Giallorossi a 50% chance of doing just that, with an away win at 26%, but it's expected to be a close-run game.

Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1

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