Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides result and scoreline predictions from Serie A as the top four race heats up...
"Roma put in one of their most dominant displays of the season in cruising to victory over Fiorentina in November, and while it might not be quite as easy for them at Artemio Franchi, the Giallorossi should still prevail."
Lazio to rebound from weekend setback
A 2-0 reverse in Bologna dented Lazio's Champions League hopes, and Tuesday's game against a Torino side on a solid unbeaten run is unlikely to be easy. However, Simone Inzaghi's side have been stronger at home then they have been away from the Olimpico - averaging more than 0.2 xGA less per game in the capital - and if the game goes ahead after a Covid-19 case in the Torino camp (at the time of writing, it is still on), the hosts are favourites based on Infogol's model.
Juve to find it easy against Spezia
While Spezia have caused teams plenty of problems this season, Juventus' defensive solidity at home is expected to see them through on Tuesday's night. Andrea Pirlo's side are averaging just 0.87 xGA at the Allianz Stadium - no team has a better record at home - while their visitors' away xGA of 1.88 per game ought to give manager Vincenzo Italiano cause for concern despite his side producing an important comeback against Parma over the weekend.
Napoli to continue recovery after European exit
Napoli put the disappointment of Europa League elimination behind them on Sunday, putting in a professional display to get past Benevento, but face a stern challenge in the form of a Sassuolo side with extra time to recuperate after their weekend meeting with Torino was postponed. Nevertheless, Infogol backs the visitors to prevail, just as they did last season courtesy of a late Pedro Obiang own goal.
Milan to push on after vital win in Rome
Milan have been better away than at home this term, as emphasised by their display in victory at Roma, but they'll need to show more consistency at the San Siro to stay in touch with title rivals Inter. Udinese are this week's visitors, and Luca Gotti's side have the fifth-best xGA record in all of Serie A, but Infogol's model still expects a home victory to help the Rossoneri complete a league double over their opponents.
Atalanta to keep league momentum going
While Atalanta suffered from an early red card in their European travels, it has been a different story back in Italy where Gian Piero Gasperini's side are pursuing a fourth straight league win. Opponents Crotone have lost their last six in a row, while an away run of two points and 1.9 xGA per game is a big factor in what looks likely to be a losing fight against the drop, especially if - as suggested by Infogol's model - they suffer another loss in midweek.
Benevento's home woes to continue
Benevento still have some work to do to secure their safety, though a seven-point gap to the bottom three is encouraging. They'll fancy their chances against Verona, but Ivan Jurić's side have been unpredictable on the road and will take a home victory over last season's Serie B champions as further encouragement. Infogol suggests there's not a lot to choose between the sides, but narrowly favours the visitors.
Cagliari to continue survival push
Cagliari got the new manager bounce they needed over the weekend, and are now just two points from safety, though Torino in 17th have a game in hand. A second straight win for new boss Leonardo Semplici would be a huge statement, and Infogol's model backs them against a Bologna side which impressed at home to Lazio on Sunday but has just two away wins all season, one of those against lowly Parma.
Roma to complete double over Fiorentina
Roma put in one of their most dominant displays of the season in cruising to victory over Fiorentina in November, and while it might not be quite as easy for them at Artemio Franchi, the Giallorossi should still prevail. Infogol's model gives the side from the capital a 47% chance of victory, a result which could propel them back into the top four if other results go their way.
Genoa to close within a point of Samp with derby success
Genoa v Sampdoria
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Sampdoria had double the points total of their rivals after the two sides met at Luigi Ferraris earlier this season, while Genoa followed the result with a dismal winless run, but Davide Ballardini's arrival has ensured local bragging rights remain up for grabs. Infogol's model gives Genoa the edge, with Samp's average of 0.9 xGF across their last three games not boding especially well for Claudio Ranieri's men.
Inter to leave Parma in deep trouble
Having surrendered a two-goal lead for the second time in as many games, Parma are running out of time to pull themselves out of trouble. A home return of five goals is the league's lowest, even if it is far below the xG return at Ennio Tardini, and manager Roberto D'Aversa won't be looking forward to the visit of an Inter side with the league's best away defence in both real and expected terms.