"A midweek draw saw Milan's lead at the top cut to a single point, and defeat to high-flying Sassuolo could see them knocked off top spot"
Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides result and scoreline predictions in Serie A as Milan's lead comes under threat...
Fiorentina to pip Verona on home turf
Fiorentina v Verona
Saturday, 14:00
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Verona will feel unlucky to have lost in midweek, conceding twice to Sampdoria from just three shots on target, and they face another challenge on Saturday afternoon. Fiorentina have been better at home lately than their results suggest, and Infogol's model anticipates Cesare Prandelli emerging victorious from a tight game at Artemio Franchi.
Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1
Sampdoria to kick on after midweek win
Sampdoria v Crotone
Saturday, 17:00
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That victory in Verona came at the perfect time for Samp, who had been in danger of slipping further down the table. Opponents Crotone got a rare away point last time out, withstanding Udinese's attack without creating a great deal themselves, but the trip to Luigi Ferraris will require a similar combination of resolve and good fortune if they're to manage a repeat.
Back the 2-0 @ 10.5019/2
Parma's unbeaten run to end against Juve
Parma v Juventus
Saturday, 19:45
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Parma were unable to break down Cagliari in midweek, but a goalless draw extended their unbeaten run to five games. Now, though, they have the tougher task of getting something from a Juventus side who can count themselves unlucky not to have taken all three points against Atalanta. Infogol forecasts an away win, though there's every chance of Fabio Liverani's side finding the net.
Back the 1-2 @ 9.4017/2
Torino to clamber towards safety
Torino v Bologna
Sunday, 11:30
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Torino's defensive form is still a huge concern, and their Thursday defeat in Rome - while influenced by an early red card - was hardly underserved on the balance of chances. However, while Marco Giampaolo's side have the league's worst defensive record, the visit of a Bologna side averaging 2.71 xGA across their last three outings could well provide respite, with Infogol giving the hosts a slight edge.
Back the 2-1 @ 9.809/1
Benevento to build on Lazio point
Benevento v Genoa
Sunday, 14:00
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A 1-1 draw with Lazio on Tuesday was no less than Benevento deserved, and Pippo Inzaghi's side have the ideal fixture to help them build on that big point. Genoa are the next visitors to Ciro Vigorito, and they arrive after a notable point of their own at home to AC Milan, but Infogol backs the hosts to keep Rolando Maran's men entrenched in the bottom three.
Back the 2-1 @ 9.008/1
Cagliari to sneak a win and climb above Udinese
Cagliari v Udinese
Sunday, 14:00
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Udinese's failure to convert chances has hurt them this season, with their 0.68 xGA per game the best in the division, and they now come up against a Cagliari side fresh off a second clean sheet of the campaign. Eusebio di Francesco's hosts might be winless in four, but Infogol makes them slight favourites to take the points and they may need another shutout to do so.
Back the 2-0 @ 18.5035/2
Inter to prove unstoppable against Spezia
Inter Milan v Spezia
Sunday, 14:00
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If Wednesday's meeting with Napoli was a war of attrition, Inter's next game at home is expected to be more comfortable. Visitors Spezia have given a good account of themselves since promotion, most recently coming within minutes of a victory over Bologna, but Antonio Conte's hosts are on fire domestically and should overpower their visitors.
Back the 3-0 @ 8.808/1
Milan to sneak a win to stay top
Sassuolo v AC Milan
Sunday, 14:00
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A midweek draw saw Milan's lead at the top cut to a single point, and defeat to high-flying Sassuolo could see them knocked off top spot. A Zlatan Ibrahimović double helped the visitors to a 2-1 win at Mapei Stadium in July, and the Rossoneri may well need their forward line to be firing if they want a repeat against opponents with just one defeat in six home games this season. Infogol anticipates a tight one, with the away side just about prevailing.
Back the 1-2 @ 9.208/1
Atalanta to draw level with Roma
Atalanta v Roma
Sunday, 17:00
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After holding on for a draw at Juventus in midweek - the third time in a row they have escaped that fixture with a point - Atalanta have home advantage against Roma and are tipped by Infogol to take the points. The visitors are coming off impressive back-to-back wins, but haven't been able to match their unbeaten home record away from the Olimpico and are expected to fall just short in Bergamo.
Back the 2-1 @ 9.6017/2
Lazio to eke out crucial win in effort to remain in hunt for Europe
Lazio v Napoli
Sunday, 19:45
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A defeat to Napoli on Sunday night would see Lazio fall eight points behind their opponents, so there's a lot riding on this for the rest of the season. The side from the capital won this fixture by a single goal in January - one of many decided last term by Ciro Immobile - and their talisman may need help from his team-mates this weekend. Lazio have the edge, based on Infogol's model, but not by a lot.
Back the 2-1 @ 11.0010/1
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