Everton v Man City: Citizens to move one step closer to history

Paul Robinson
19 March 2021
3:00 min read

Pep Guardiola has the chance of landing the quadruple with City this season

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The FA Cup returns this weekend, and Paul Robinson is expecting the quarter-final tie between Everton and Man City to be a low-scoring affair...

They have kept three clean sheets in their last three away games, and aside from a crazy match against Spurs, Everton have scored either one or none in their last seven at home.

Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.47/5

Everton v Man City
Saturday 20 March, 17:30
Live on BT Sport

Home form a major concern for Ancelotti

Everton haven't won the FA Cup since Joe Royle led the team to a 1-0 win over Manchester United in the final in 1995. Paul Rideout scored the only goal of the game in what was a considerable upset at the time.

It will be an even bigger upset if they beat Man City on Saturday though, as the Citizens have been the kings of the cups in recent years.

Carlo Ancelotti's side also come into this quarter-final tie on the back of two straight defeats - a 2-0 loss at Chelsea, followed by a hugely disappointing 2-1 home reverse to Burnley.

Despite this season being a good one so far for Everton, their record at Goodison Park is a concern. They have won just five of 14 at home in the league - losing seven times - and even in tis competition, they needed extra time to see off both Rotherham and Spurs.

Man City can make history

Pep Guardiola is in the enviable position of having the deepest squad available to him, and that has certainly proved to be a vital asset in this condensed campaign.

With the Premier League title all but regained, he can continue to rotate his side accordingly, and an unprecedented quadruple isn't out of the question.

They travel to Goodison on the back of three straight wins, having put the Manchester derby defeat well behind them. Sergio Aguero is back to fitness and a fresh Aguero could prove deadly in the final couple of months of the season.

No value in the Match Odds

The visitors are the hot favourites at 1.341/3 to win the game inside of 90 minutes and move within two more victories of their second FA Cup in three years.

It is hard to argue against that price, even if it is unbackable. They won here in the league in February by three goals to one, and they did exactly the same the year prior. In fact, City have won their last six fixtures against Everton.

An unlikely home win is trading at around the 10.519/2 mark on the Exchange, with the draw at 6.05/1. Neither of them really interest me, as I just can't see how the hosts can suddenly turn around their poor home form against the best team in the country.

Professional City to just do enough

A betting opportunity is available in the Over/Under 2.5 Goal market though, as I like the Under at around 2.47/5 on the Betfair Exchange.

The way I imagine this game to go, is City controlling it with Everton offering little threat. Guardiola's players won't be going all out to rack up a big score, they will just be happy to get the job done and move on.

They have kept three clean sheets in their last three away games, and aside from a crazy match against Spurs, Everton have scored either one or none in their last seven at home.

Same Game Multi

The Sportsbook offer an opportunity to combine some more of the shorter priced bets together in a Same Game Multi, and I think I have found a good one for this fixture.

Man City to win in 90 minutes, Under 2.5 Goals and Under 9.5 Corners combines to pay odds of around 13/2, and at that price, we will get a good run for our money.

2020/21 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 51pts
Returned: 55.85pts
P/L: +4.85pts

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