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League One Reading and Wigan can get the ball rolling
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National League York City fancied as a banker leg
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An Arsenal win in late kick-off completes 13/27.50 Acca
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Leg #1 - Reading to beat Crawley @ 8/131.61
Reading are set to dominate Crawley in their upcoming League One clash on Saturday. Reading's home form has been exceptional, ranking 10th for xPTS and 9th for non-penalty xG ratio. Their season record of W4-D1-L4 includes just one home defeat to Leyton Orient, with a solid home aggregate of 9-3. Over their last 20 home games, they've secured an impressive W13-D3-L4, scoring 39 goals and failing to score only once. They rely heavily on home form, having struggled on the road with a W0-D1-L3 record, conceding 11 goals.
Only Birmingham and Wrexham have garnered more home points than the Royals, who also rank among the top for shots on target. In stark contrast, Crawley sit 20th for away xPTS and 16th for non-penalty xG ratio, with a dismal away xG of just 0.58. Their recent form has been poor, ranking 21st for xPTS and xG ratio in the last four games, with a mere 0.43 xG. Crawley's season started brightly but has since nosedived, now sitting 23rd on xPTS and non-penalty xG ratio. Reading's formidable home record should see them over the line.
Leg #2 - Wigan to beat Cambridge @ 6/52.20
Wigan look good for three points over Cambridge on Saturday. Cambridge's dismal form this season, with a record of W0-D1-L8, has seen them score just 6 goals and fail to score in 6 games, conceding in all 9. They have allowed 2+ goals in 6 of their fixtures and rank 20th for home xPTS. At home, they manage only 0.89 xG while conceding 2.25 goals per game. Manager Gary Monk's tenure has been disappointing, with just 2 wins in 20 games, yielding a W2-D5-L13 record.
In contrast, Wigan have a more balanced record of W3-D4-L3, with losses on the road to Birmingham and Reading who both have strong home records, and Charlton at Brick Community Stadium. They've been unfortunate in some games, like the narrow loss to Birmingham despite winning the xG battle 1.31 vs 1.12. Their recent form includes away draws against tough opponents in Stockport and Lincoln. Notably, three of their five away games have been against top-six sides, and they've managed a respectable 8th on away xPTS. Their last three away games saw an average concession of just 0.44 xGA, highlighting their defensive solidity.
Leg #3 - York City to beat Ebbsfleet @ 1/31.33
York City look set to triumph over Ebbsfleet in their National League clash on Sunday. York have been solid this season with a record of W7-D5-L1 and a home aggregate of 8-3 from W4-D1-L1. Impressively, they have kept 7 clean sheets from 13 games and scored in 10 of them. They sit 3rd on xPTS and have scored 19 goals from 17.74 xG. Only Gateshead and Barnet have taken more shots.
Under the management of Adam Hinshelwood, an attack-minded coach with a stellar record at Worthing FC, York City have turned around their tough start under his tutelage. They now boast a record of W11-D6-L3, conceding just 0.55 goals per game. At home, their xG stands at 1.18, while their xGA is 0.94.
Ebbsfleet, on the other hand, have struggled with a W1-D3-L9 record and sit 20th for away xPTS. They have been defeated 17-6 on aggregate in away games and have only secured one point from a 0-0 draw with Braintree. Sitting bottom of the table in 24th place, Ebbsfleet have the worst defensive record and the lowest shot average per 90 minutes. Expect York to capitalize on these weaknesses and secure a victory.
Leg #4 - Arsenal to beat Bournemouth @ 4/71.57
Arsenal should be too strong for Bournemouth in Saturday's late kick-off, leveraging their dominant head-to-head record and solid recent form. The Gunners have won 11 of their past encounters with the Cherries, who have only managed two victories. Despite Bournemouth's decent start this season (W2-D2-L3), their wins came against lower-tier teams. They've struggled against stronger sides, as highlighted by their xG and xPTS metrics, sitting 11th for both.
Arsenal, on the other hand, excelled last season against teams placed 8th or lower, securing a record of W23-D1-L2. They've continued this robust form into the current season with a W5-D2-L0 record. Their only draws came against Brighton, where they were down to 10 men, and Manchester City, where they nearly secured a 2-1 win despite being a man down.
Arsenal's defensive prowess is notable, having kept 10 clean sheets on the road last season and conceding very few chances. This season, they rank 4th on xPTS and are defensively one of the best sides in Europe, with only Liverpool having a better xGA in the Premier League.
Even with some injury concerns, including Saka, who is likely to play, Arsenal's depth and quality should see them through against a Bournemouth side yet to beat a top team this season.
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