Same Game Multi Tips: Best Goalscorer and Bookings bets for Premier League GW20

Mo Salah
Mo Salah can score in London says Steven Railston

Infogol's Steven Railston uses expected goals (xG) data to pick out the best goalscorer, booking and Same Game Multi bets for the highlight games of Gameweek 20...

"The drought has seen the Egyptian get onto chances equating to 1.7 xG without finding the back of the net, looking uncharacteristically wasteful in front of goal."

Harvey Barnes can strike again at Goodison Park

Everton vs Leicester
Wednesday, 20:15

Goalscorer: Harvey Barnes to score anytime @ 11/4

Leicester moved up to third in the Premier League after an impressive win over Chelsea last week (xG: LEI 1.4 - 0.7 CHE). The Foxes' two goals came from midfield in that game, and with Jamie Vardy now sidelined through injury, that contribution in front of goal from other areas of the pitch will need to continue. One player who could fill the void left by Vardy is Harvey Barnes (0.32 xG/avg match), who has been enjoying a tremendous run of form recently.

Barnes has scored three goals across his last six league fixtures, with the 23-year-old's finishing ability rapidly improving and this, combined with his pace and trickery, ensures he's a key component in Brendan Rogers' plans. Barnes has scored six goals from 4.91 xG this campaign, already equalling his best goal tally, and he's one to keep an eye on at Goodison Park.

Carded: Ben Godfrey to be booked @ 12/5

With Leicester often initiating attacks through their wide areas, it seems fair to presume Ben Godfrey may have a difficult evening at left-back for Everton. Godfrey has picked up four yellow cards this season, receiving yellows in consecutive games prior to Everton's win away at Wolves. Up against Mark Albrighton, it wouldn't be a surprise to him receive yet another caution.

Same Game Multi: The draw and BTTS @ 4.02

Both teams will head into this fixture high on confidence, and Everton sit just six points behind Leicester, although they do have two games in hand on the Foxes. Truthfully, the Toffees' most recent win over Wolves was fortunate (xG: WOL 1.2 - 0.4 EVE), but it was understandable to see them struggling in attack without the talismanic Dominic Calvert-Lewin.

Calvert-Lewin has since returned from injury, and he'll be looking to receive some high-quality service here, which at times, Everton (1.4 xGF pg) have created this season. Leicester have conceded an average of 1.3 xGA per game this term, which suggests the hosts can find the back of the net. But it would be foolish to think Leicester won't be able to threaten. This could be an entertaining game, although with not much to split these two sides, the points can be shared.

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Bruno Fernandes can put the Blades to the sword

Manchester United vs Sheffield United
Wednesday, 20:15

Goalscorer: Bruno Fernandes to score anytime @ 1/1

There's nothing exciting about the price for Bruno Fernandes to score against Sheffield United and it's not hard to see why. Fernandes (0.59 xG/avg match) has been simply outstanding for United since his arrival last January, and United's midfield maestro is arguably the catalyst behind their change of fortunes. He's scored 10 goals this term, surpassing last campaign's goal total (8), and while he converts plenty of penalties, the cliché rings true - they all count.

A criticism of Fernandes is his lack of goals against some of the league's strongest sides and, after squashing those doubts with an excellent freekick against Liverpool in the FA Cup, he'll likely be hungry to add to his tally here. Considering the Blades' woes, goals could be aplenty here.

Carded: Oliver Norwood to be booked @ 6/4

After an incredible campaign on their return to the topflight, Sheffield United have seriously underwhelmed this time around. Oliver Norwood in the centre of their midfield is one of many players who've looked out of their depth, which could explain his poor disciplinary record. Norwood has a tackle success rate of just 40% and has received four yellow cards this term.
With the Blades' midfield likely to be overrun, tactical fouls to disrupt the hosts are likely, and Norwood can once again catch the referees' eye.

Same Game Multi: Man United win, over 2.5 goals, and Fernandes to score anytime @ 2.767/4

Manchester United's credentials for winning this clash at Old Trafford don't exactly need touting, with the club currently 13 games unbeaten in the league. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's side can go back to the top of the table this evening but their underlying numbers (1.8 xGF and 1.42 xGA pg) aren't worthy of league leaders. Regardless, they should have more than enough to win this game, and they can ruthlessly exploit Sheffield United's (1.50 xGA pg) poor back line.

Mo Salah to bounce back from frustrating period

Tottenham vs Liverpool
Thursday, 20:00

Goalscorer: Mo Salah to score anytime @ 13/10

Although he's Liverpool's top goalscorer this season, Mo Salah has now failed to score across five league games. The drought has seen the Egyptian get onto chances equating to 1.7 xG without finding the back of the net, looking uncharacteristically wasteful in front of goal.

However, Salah has recorded 0.60 xG/avg match in the Premier League, and even after his small drought, he's still the league's top scorer with 13 goals. It is worth mentioning, though, that Salah is strangely yet to take a shot inside the six-yard box this season. His historic numbers do suggest that this run will end sooner than later, and Salah can rise to the big occasion here, scoring in London.

Carded: Joel Matip to be booked @ 7/2

Liverpool's vulnerability in defence has been well documented this campaign, with their makeshift backline seemingly their biggest weakness. Although Joel Matip is one of many players at the Reds that has struggled for fitness, he's expected to return for this clash on Thursday night.

While that's good news for the champions, Matip has received two yellows in 10 league appearances, and backing him to receive a caution on his return to action could be wise.

Tottenham will aim to play on the counterattack, and with Matip returning from injury, the Cameroonian could make reckless challenges.

Same Game Multi: Under 2.5 goals, Mo Salah to score anytime @ 8.02

Jose Mourinho is synonymous with securing points from fixtures of this magnitude with a pragmatic approach. The reverse game at Anfield was almost a tactical masterclass (xG: LIV 1.1 - 1.4 TOT). Of course, Tottenham lost that clash thanks to Firmino's late header, but crucially, Mourinho's side limited the champions' chances on goal.

Spurs have conceded 1.3 xGA per game at home this season, and with Mourinho's history, don't expect this match to have fireworks. Liverpool may struggle to find a way through Tottenham's tenacious lines of defence, and the Reds have failed to score in their last two away visits.

This is despite averaging 1.6 xGF per game across those away matches against Newcastle and Southampton, and they can bounce back here in a low scoring game, with Salah providing the winner.

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