Jake Osgathorpe returns for GW7 of the Premier League, using Infogol data to pick out the best goalscorer, booking and Same Game Multi bets for the highlight games...
"Since returning from the international break, Rashford has scored five times in four matches, including the winner against PSG and an explosive hat-trick in midweek against RB Leipzig."
Bet £10 on a Premier League Same Game Multi (SGM) for games on Saturday and Sunday and get a free £10 Sportsbook bet to use on any market once settled, T&Cs apply.
Salah to lead Reds to triumph
Liverpool vs West Ham
Goalscorer: Mohamed Salah to score first @ 11/4
It won't come as much of a surprise that I think Salah is a good bet to open the scoring in this game. The Egyptian King has netted six times already this season from chances equating to 4.3 xG, getting on the end of 0.7 xG/avg match through six matches - up on his 18/19 (0.57) and 19/20 (0.64) average. The Reds are light on bodies in defence, so the emphasis will be on their attacking players to put the game to bed, and Salah should get chances, so his price of 11/4 to open the scoring looks a too big.
Carded: Vladamir Coufal to be booked @ 2/1
West Ham's new signing could be in for a tough evening at Anfield. Playing as a right wing back, he will be run hard by Andrew Roberston and Sadio Mane. Coufal has already been booked twice in his three games, only committing three fouls, so when he does foul, they tend to be cynical. Given the pace down Liverpool's left, another cynical foul could be on the cards.
Same Game Multi: Liverpool to win, BTTS, Over 2.5 Goals and Mohamed Salah to score @ 3.211/5
Liverpool are missing centre backs, and their back up centre back, so will again be vulnerable defensively (1.5 xGA pg), meaning I like the BTTS. The Reds have shown enough in attack (2.6 xGF pg) to suggest they can easily outscore their opponents, so a home win brings in the Over 2.5 too. To bump the price up, add in Salah to score anytime. If this is an open game, the player with the highest xG/avg match on the pitch should get a few chances at least.
Rashford to continue to lead by example
Manchester United vs Arsenal
Goalscorer: Marcus Rashford to score anytime @ 17/10
Marcus Rashford MBE continues to set examples both on and off the football pitch. He has been in the news for his off-field work over the past few months, but recently, he deserves great credit for his on-field work.
Since returning from the international break, Rashford has scored five times in four matches, including the winner against PSG and an explosive hat-trick in midweek against RB Leipzig. He looks sharper now than when the season first resumed, as do United as team, and given the purpose with which he is playing, and the fact he has been getting in good scoring positions this season (0.43 xG/avg match all comps), the 17/10 about him netting looks too big. Compare it to market favourite Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, who has a total xG in the 20/21 Premier League of 0.44 (0.07 xG/avg match).
Carded: Thomas Partey to be booked @ 6/4
It is a fairly short price, but given the emphasis on winning the ball back in this Arsenal system, I think Thomas Partey could see yellow.
He has already been booked once in just two games for Arsenal, and last season for Atleti, Partey went into the book 13 times. With the technical players that United have in attacking areas, it wouldn't surprise me if he got the wrong side on more than one occasion, so I like his chances of getting booked.
Same Game Multi: Manchester United or Draw, Under 3.5 Goals and Bruno Fernandes 1+ shot on target @ 2.68/5
As discussed on this weeks Football...Only Bettor, I expect Arsenal to set up in their deep block, which should make this a dull encounter, hence the Under 3.5. The Gunners have struggled greatly in attack so far (1.2 xGF pg), and United look to be hitting their stride, so the hosts should avoid defeat at the very least.. Bruno Fernandes is United's set-piece taker, and loves a shot from distance that usually tests goalkeepers. He is averaging 1.5 shot on target/avg match, so throw that in to boos the price.
'Hat-trick' Bamford to find the net again
Leeds vs Leicester
Goalscorer: Patrick Bamford to score anytime @ 9/5
Leeds were excellent against Aston Villa last weekend, and 'hat-trick' Bamford grabbed the headlines in emphatic style with a sensational finishing display. He has now scored six times from chances equating to 3.4 xG, being much more clinical than in the Championship last season (16 goals, 24.4 xG). Leeds as a team should be well rested for this, and their high-press causes every team issues, so I expect them to create chances here, in which case a man who has scored in four of six league games should be chanced at nearly 2/1.
Carded: Robin Koch to be booked @ 7/2
I expect Leeds to play on the front foot in this game and that could leave them susceptible on the counter-attack. We know Leicester have the pace and precision on the break to cause serious problems, and can see Jamie Vardy dragging Leeds centre-backs into channel areas for a quick back-to-front pass, which brings the cynical foul into play. Though he is yet to be booked, Robin Koch has had some shaky moments so far this season, and I can see him struggling to deal with Vardy, Barnes and co.
Same Game Multi: Leeds or Draw, Under 3.5 Goals and Patrick Bamford 1+ shot on target @ 2.982/1
Both myself and Mark O'Haire agreed on FOB this week that we like Leeds more than Leicester in this game, with their performances against a tough schedule much more impressive than what the Foxes have shown. Backing the home side in the double chance market covers that, but I don't see this being high-scoring, with these sides quite closely matches in my opinion, hence the under 3.5. Bamford is averaging 2.0 shots on target/avg match this term, so throw 1+ Bamford SOT into the SGM and you get close to 3.0.
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Bet £10 on a Premier League Same Game Multi for games on Saturday and Sunday and get a free £10 Sportsbook bet to use on any market, once settled, T&Cs apply.
Liverpool vs West Ham- Liverpool to win, BTTS, Over 2.5 Goals and Mohamed Salah to score @ 3.211/5
Manchester United vs Arsenal - Manchester United or Draw, Under 3.5 Goals and Bruno Fernandes 1+ shot on target @ 2.68/5
Leeds vs Leicester - Leeds or Draw, Under 3.5 Goals and Patrick Bamford 1+ shot on target @ 2.982/1