After 2.69 and 3.45 S winners in GW4, Jake Osgathorpe returns for GW5, using Infogol data to pick out the best goalscorer, booking and Same Game Multi bets for the highlight games...
"Given the way I expect Arsenal to set-up here, with a deep-lying block, I can’t see there being a hat-full of goals in this one, so Under 3.5 goals is a bet I like."
No stopping DCL
Everton vs Liverpool
Goalscorer: Dominic Calvert-Lewin to score anytime @ 6/4
It perhaps isn't surprising to see that I am tipping up the Premier League's top scorer to go in again here. Dominic Calvert-Lewin has been sensational so far this season, hugely benefitting from playing in an attack-minded team (2.34 xGF pg). He is getting on the end of an average of 1.11 xG/avg match, and if this Everton team continues to create good opportunities, DCL will only add to his tally.
Card: Trent Alexander-Arnold to be booked @ 23/10
This is a huge game for TAA given his Liverpool loyalties. Not only does it mean a lot to him that the Reds win, but he will likely be up against Richarlison, who is a very tricky opponent due to his physicality and directness. We all know Alexander-Arnold's abilities going forward, but he is vulnerable defensively, and more than capable of getting the wrong side of players. He looks decent for a card in a game which could become frustrating for the champs.
Same Game Multi: Everton or Draw, Under 3.5 Goals and James Rodriguez 1+ shot on target @ 6.46
I like Everton's chances of getting something from the game, though given the last three meetings at Goodison have been 0-0, I don't think we will be in for a goal fest, so Under 3.5 looks fair. James Rodriguez has been excellent since arriving, scoring three times from 10 shots. He has hit the target with four of those, meaning he is averaging 1.12 shots on target per avg game.
Sterling to take centre stage
Manchester City vs Arsenal
Goalscorer: Raheem Sterling to score anytime @ 11/10
We are unsure as to whether Sergio Aguero or Gabriel Jesus will take part in this game, so I'm happy to look elsewhere. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang looks an obvious play give his FA Cup semi final performance, but so far this season in the league, he has averaged just 0.08 xG/avg match. That is hugely off-putting. Kevin De Bruyne is also a doubt, so to me, Raheem Sterling makes sense at odds against. The Englishman should be well rested having not played for England over the international break, and though he hasn't yet fired - just like his team - he is their obvious goal threat.
Card: Hector Bellerin to be booked @ 3/1
Hector Bellerin could have his hands full on Saturday, with multiple different potential opponents for him that are all capable of causing him to commit fouls. So far this season, the Spaniard has been booked twice in four matches, and I can see him adding to that tally in a game which Arsenal will see very little of the football.
Same Game Multi: Under 3.5 Goals, Raheem Sterling and Phil Foden 1+ shots on target @ 4.08
Given the way I expect Arsenal to set-up here, with a deep-lying block, I can't see there being a hat-full of goals in this one, so Under 3.5 goals is a bet I like. Raheem Sterling is averaging 3.15 shots/avg match and just over 1 shot on target/avg match, and he should test Bernd Leno. Phil Foden seems to be a big part of Guardiola's plans this season, and he is taking 1.86 shots/avg match. Given the level of dominance with the football I expect from City, I wouldn't be surprised to see Foden test Leno too.
Cracking clash at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
Tottenham vs West Ham
Goalscorer: Heung-Min Son to score anytime @ 11/10
Tottenham really stepped on the gas before the international break, racking up 7.2 xGF in two matches against Newcastle and Manchester United, and racking up 2.2 against Southampton. They look to have found a formula for creating chances, and Heung-Min Son has been the main beneficiary, netting six times so far. He's averaging 0.66 xG/avg match and looks overpriced to score here in a game that should see goals.
Card: Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg to be booked @ 3/1
A key part to Spurs recent attacking upturn has been Hojbjerg, who provides a stable pivot at the base of their midfield. He is a combative player who has somehow only been booked once this season, despite making 11 fouls. He is averaging 2.7 fouls/avg match, and West Ham have some tricky and strong players that will likely be operating around him, so the 3/1 looks big.
Same Game Multi: Over 2.5 Goals, BTTS, Harry Kane and Heung-Min Son 1+ shot on target @ 2.41
We should be in for a cracker at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, and I like Over 2.5 goals and BTTS in this match given how impressive both have been in attack. To boost the price a bit, I'm going to drop in Kane and Son to both have 1+ shot on target given both have averaged over 2.0 shots on target/avg match.
Everton vs Liverpool - Everton or Draw, Under 3.5 Goals and James Rodriguez 1+ shot on target @ 6.46
Manchester City vs Arsenal - Under 3.5 Goals, Raheem Sterling and Phil Foden 1+ shots on target @ 4.08
Tottenham vs West Ham - Over 2.5 Goals, BTTS, Harry Kane and Heung-Min Son 1+ shot on target @ 2.41