Infogol's Steven Railston uses expected goals (xG) data to pick out the best goalscorer, booking and Same Game Multi bets for the highlight games of Gameweek 21...
"With the exception of two goals this season, it’s noticeable Lacazette’s goals often come in streaks. With the Frenchman scoring against Southampton in midweek, he’ll be confident of finding the back of the net against Manchester United."
Dominic Calvert-Lewin to end goal drought
Everton vs Newcastle
Goalscorer: Dominic Calvert-Lewin to score anytime @ 10/11
Dominic Calvert-Lewin has scored 11 goals from 10.5 xG this season after making a ferocious start to the campaign, but it's worth noting he's actually failed to score since early December. The 23-year-old has been a revelation under the guidance of Carlo Ancelotti, though, recording 0.6 xG/avg match this term, crucially offering Everton their focal point in attack.
His involvement against Leicester most recently was limited, but that was Calvert-Lewin's first league game back since injury, while Everton also failed to fashion any significant opportunities.
Furthermore, it's interesting all of his goals have come in the box this season, with five of his tally fired home in the six-yard-box. Against a struggling Newcastle side, Everton should be able to provide Calvert-Lewin with adequate service, and he can end his goal drought at Goodison Park.
Carded: Jamal Lewis to be booked @ 11/4
Stuart Atwell takes charge of this game on Saturday afternoon, overseeing two sides that rank high for cards received in the topflight. Atwell averages 4.3 yellow cards per game this campaign, more than any other referee, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see Jamal Lewis catch his eye. Deployed at left back for Newcastle, Lewis has already picked up four yellows this season, and Richarlison can test his defensive capabilities with his pace and trickery down that right side for the Toffees.
Same Game Multi: Everton win and Dominic Calvert-Lewin to score anytime @ 2.407/5
Everton currently sit four points behind rivals Liverpool with two games in hand, and they'll feel disappointed they failed to secure the win against Leicester despite creating less chances (xG: EVE 0.7 - 1.2 NEW). Jordan Pickford's blunder proved costly in that clash, and while he's shouldered the blame in the aftermath, It's worth noting Everton haven't been brilliant in attack lately.
They've created an average of just 0.6 xGF per game across their last five fixtures, but they're now faced with the perfect opportunity to cure those attacking woes, welcoming Newcastle to Merseyside.
The Magpies have gone nine consecutive games without a win, and to make matters worse, they've conceded an average of 2.1 xGA per game away from home. Only Leeds have a worse defensive record away from home according to expected goals and Newcastle's chances of getting a result here seem slim.
Alexandre Lacazette can add to his growing tally
Goalscorer: Alexandre Lacazette to score anytime @ 13/8
Alexandre Lacazette has perhaps been Arsenal's unsung hero this season, providing the Gunners with eight goals from 7.5 xG while Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang continues to misfire. He's already just two goals short of his goal haul (10) from last campaign, recording an impressive 0.6 xG/avg match. That's the highest Lacazette has performed on that metric since he joined Arsenal four years ago, and he's clearly thriving under Mikel Arteta.
The Spaniard has entrusted him with the club's centre-forward role, and with the exception of two goals this season, it's noticeable Lacazette's goals often come in streaks. With the Frenchman scoring against Southampton in midweek, he'll be confident of finding the back of the net against Manchester United. Aubameyang is set to miss this game and therefore Lacazette can provide Arsenal's source of inspiration.
Carded: Granit Xhaka to be booked @ 7/4
Both sides have excellent quality in midfield, and Granit Xhaka will be tasked with keeping Bruno Fernandes quiet at the Emirates. It looks set to be a fascinating duel, but Xhaka will need to remain level-headed, something that has eluded him in the past. Arsenal's enforcer will need to be disciplined, but in a game of this magnitude, that might prove difficult.
Same Game Multi: BTTS and under 11.5 corners @ 2.29
The energy of Bukayo Saka and Emile Smith Rowe has breathed a new lease of life into Arsenal and they're now enjoying their best run of games since Arteta's appointment. They've picked up 17 points from their last 10 games, averaging 1.7 xGF and 1.0 xGA per game across that period. That process is more than respectable, and they're undoubtedly trending in the right direction on the required metrics, while also appearing easier on the eye.
Sheffield United didn't adhere to the script during the week, winning at Old Trafford to end Manchester United's 13-game Premier League unbeaten run (xG: MUN 1.2 - 0.40 SHU). However, while that result was a potential reality check, the Red Devils have actually performed better away from home this campaign. Remarkably, 65% of their points total has been secured on the road, which suggests they should have no problem finding the back of the net (1.9 xGF pg).
Both sides can score here and backing under 11.5 corners can enhance the price. In the last 10 league games in which Arsenal and United were involved, only once was there more than 11 corners.
Sensational Michail Antonio to test the champions
West Ham vs Liverpool
Goalscorer: Michail Antonio to score anytime @ 21/10
Michail Antonio has been sensational for West Ham, almost single-handedly steering the Irons to safety last season after the club flirted with relegation. His outstanding form has continued this term and, despite enduring an injury-hit few months, Antonio has five goals on the board from 5.9 xG.
Antonio is a deadly finisher inside of the box and he sent a timely reminder of his importance to this West Ham side when recently providing the matchwinner against West Brom. He regularly latches onto goalscoring opportunities and he's recorded 0.7 xG/avg match this term - more than other West Ham player. His unpredictability will be a lethal asset against Liverpool's ravaged back line, and he can score here, taking advantage of the champions' predicament in defence.
Carded: Thiago to be booked @ 4/1
Perhaps still adapting to the relentless pace of the Premier League, Thiago has received two yellow cards in just seven league appearances. He received a caution against Tottenham, and now set to play another physical side, his petulance could once again see him in the referee's book. The 4/1 available on the Sportsbook is a more than tempting price.
Same Game Multi: Liverpool to win, BTTS and Antonio to have two shots on target @ 4.18
To Liverpool's credit, they emphatically responded to their shock home defeat against Burnley on Thursday night, beating Tottenham 3-1 in London (xG: TOT 0.1 - 2.4 LIV). That was an outstanding defensive display considering their issues at the back, and while their overall process in defence is strong (1.1 xGA pg), they always seem to allow their opponents at least a few sights on goal.
West Ham have recorded phenomenal underlying numbers (1.7 xGF and 1.1 xGA pg) across their last 10 fixtures and they're very much on the rise under David Moyes. The Irons have moved up to fifth in the league, which is a testament to their continued progress, and they will be tricky opposition here.
Antonio personally generated 1.45 xG against Crystal Palace, and as mentioned, he should cause Liverpool problems. However, Jurgen Klopp's side are still recording electric attacking numbers (2.1 xGF pg), and they might have too much for the hosts.