Football Tips

Same Game Multi Tips: Best Goalscorer and Bookings bets for Premier League GW12

Olivier Giroud
Olivier Giroud can score at Goodison, says Steven Railston

"With Frank Lampard’s side brimming with creative talent, his good spell in front of goal looks bound to continue as he rides the crest of that wave."

Infogol's Steven Railston uses expected goals (xG) data to pick out the best goalscorer, booking and Same Game Multi bets for the highlight games of GW12.

Sterling can end Manchester derby drought

Man Utd vs Man City
Saturday, 17:30

Goalscorer: Raheem Sterling to score anytime @ 13/10

It's hard to believe that Raheem Sterling is yet to score in the Manchester derby, with the tricky forward so instrumental in Manchester City's success in recent seasons. Sterling surpassed the 15-goal mark for the third consecutive campaign in 2019/20, and his outstanding form perhaps deserved more plaudits last term, after recording an incredible 0.7 xG/avg match. However, he's scored just three goals this season in the Premier League, but there's reason to believe Sterling is about to reach top gear. The Englishman has provided multiple assists in recent weeks, and he found the back of the net against Fulham, with a composed finish past a helpless Alphonse Areola. Sterling also bundled the ball in the back of the net against Marseille in midweek, cheekily claiming it was his, and while that effort wasn't to be, his goalscoring instincts are seemingly intact. Furthermore, City have averaged 2.6 xGF per game across their last five fixtures, and with questions over United's defence, Sterling can end his derby drought.

Carded: Edinson Cavani to be booked @ 11/2

Edinson Cavani hasn't been in Manchester long and he's already received a booking, but there's no doubt Ole Gunnar Solskjaer will be able to forgive the 33-year-old's petulance if he can provide similar heroics to that of his brace at St. Mary's. He'll be searching for his third Premier League goal in the Manchester derby, although the animosity between the two sides could get the better of him, and don't be surprised to see Cavani receive a caution. The striker was no stranger to a booking in his time in France, and he was sent off just a few weeks ago on international duty with Uruguay for a challenge on Everton's Richarlison, who was playing for Brazil. At the prices, he looks an interesting selection.

Same Game Multi: Man City win, Raheem Sterling anytime and Over 1.5 Goals @ 3.38119/50

Manchester United's late comeback in Leipzig was in vain on Tuesday night, as crucially the damage had already been done (xG: RBL 1.7 - 2.2 MUN). The Red Devils continue to be slow starters, registering 73% of their total xGF after the break this term, and against elite opposition like Manchester City this weakness will be ruthlessly exploited. Pep Guardiola's side have responded well to their disappointing Tottenham defeat, and their underlying numbers (2.6 xGF, 0.3 xGA) in the five games since suggest the conquering City of seasons past may soon be back. They can win this game, compounding United's misery, and Sterling can take advantage of the hosts' vulnerable defence.

Check out Jake Osgathorpe's best 'Book, Score, Win' SGM bet of the weekend here...

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Giroud to shine at Goodison Park

Everton vs Chelsea
Saturday, 17:30

Goalscorer: Olivier Giroud to score anytime @ 13/10

Olivier Giroud hasn't left the headlines in recent weeks, and impressively he's forced himself into starting contention at Chelsea. Incredibly, he scored all four of the Blues' goals in the Champions League, and he personally racked up the same amount of xG as the entirety of Sevilla's team (xG: SEV 1.5 - 1.5 Giroud). Leeds then visited Stamford Bridge, and Giroud opened the scoring, the Frenchman turning the ball in with an exquisite finish to put Chelsea ahead. And with Frank Lampard opting for Tammy Abraham in midweek, Giroud looks to set to start at Goodison Park. He's recorded 0.8 xG/avg match this campaign, and with Lampard's side brimming with creative talent,his good spell in front of goal looks bound to continue as he rides the crest of that wave.

Carded: Abdoulaye Doucouré to be booked @ 12/5

Concerningly, Everton have conceded an average of 2.1 xGA per game across their last five fixtures, and they're often finding themselves inviting pressure which inevitably leads to goals. Despite being the visitors, Chelsea should seize the initiative here, and with the embarrassment of riches they possess, Abdoulaye Doucouré may struggle in the heart of Everton's midfield. He's received three yellows already this season, making nine fouls, and it seems sensible to side with him to receive another warning.

Same Game Multi: Chelsea win, BTTS and Ben Chilwell to have 1 Or More Shots on Target @ 7.27627/100

Everton have failed to build on their unconvincing win against Fulham, conceding 3.4 xG against Leeds, while failing to score a winner against Burnley last weekend (xG: BUR 0.9 - 2.1 EVE). On the contrary, Chelsea are in magnificent form and their underlying numbers suggest they should be too strong at Goodison Park (1.9 xGF, 0.9 xGA pg). However, with Dominic Calvert-Lewin among Everton's ranks, it would be foolish to downplay the Toffees' hopes of finding the back of the net, and it's also worth siding with Ben Chilwell to have one shot on target. It's easy to see why Lampard was a long-term admirer of Chilwell, with the Englishman offering a threat down that left flank alongside his defensive capabilities. He's had six shots on target this campaign from eight appearances, and therefore it makes for an appealing selection at a fair price.

Sadio Mane to end barren run

Fulham vs Liverpool
Sunday, 16:30

Goalscorer: Sadio Mane to score anytime @ 4/5

Sadio Mané (18 goals from 14.5 xG) was sensational for the Reds last season, and while he started this campaign well his form has since dipped. The Senegalese has just four goals this term, last scoring in the Merseyside derby, although he was a victim of VAR when his effort was chalked off against Brighton. Regardless of his barren run, his numbers are still respectable (0.5 xG/avg match) , and he's got the perfect opportunity this weekend to find the back of the net, up against a struggling Fulham who've conceded the second most (21) goals in the first division.

Carded: Aleksandar Mitrovic to be booked @ 16/5

It's fair to say Aleksander Mitrovic has developed a fiery reputation since arriving on British shores five years ago. Since then, he's struggled to maintain discipline, often intentionally leaving a trailing elbow when challenging for the ball and consequently he's received multiple suspensions. He's received a booking on two occasions this campaign, taking his tally to a staggering 27 yellows from five seasons between appearances for Fulham and Newcastle, and Liverpool will be wary of this.

With the champions likely to dominate, Mitrovic could get frustrated, and the referee will undoubtedly already have his number marked.

Same Game Multi: Liverpool win, Mane to score anytime, Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.4310/7

Liverpool's credentials for winning this game hardly need touting, but if anyone needed reminding, they actually boast the strongest attack this season according to expected goals. Jurgen Klopp's side are averaging 2.3 xGF per game and considering Fulham's woes in defence (1.9 xGA pg) this game should be straight forward for the visitors, and they can comfortably win this with a commanding performance.

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