Onto the second week of last 16 ties and Jake Osgathorpe and Tom Carnduff use the Infogol expected goals (xG) model to help them select a Same Game Multi from each of this week's games...
"Atletico Madrid take on Chelsea in Bucharest in a game that looks like it’ll be very low-scoring. Chelsea have conceded just twice in seven games under Thomas Tuchel’s guidance while no team has had fewer goals against than Atletico in LaLiga this season (16)."
Cagey game in store at National Arena
Atletico Madrid v Chelsea
Same Game Multi: Under 2.5 goals, Mason Mount to have 1+ shots on target at 4.03/1
Atletico Madrid take on Chelsea in Bucharest in a game that looks like it'll be very low-scoring. Chelsea have conceded just twice in seven games under Thomas Tuchel's guidance while no team has had fewer goals against than Atletico in LaLiga this season (16).
An established figure of this Chelsea side is Mason Mount, and while goals aren't fancied, there should still be shots on target. The attacking midfielder has started the last five Premier League games, four of which have seen two or more total shots with a goal coming at Sheffield United and Southampton.
Bayern to dominate in Rome
Lazio v Bayern Munich
Bayern to win, Leon Goretzka to have 1+ shots on target, Niklas Sule to have 1+ shots on target at 12.011/1
Despite dropped points in recent weeks, Bayern look good value to continue their title defence in the Champions League with victory at Lazio. The Bavarians remain top of the Bundesliga table and cruised through the group stages with ease.
Leon Goretzka returned at the weekend and he made his attacking presence known, registering four shots in just 45 minutes at Frankfurt. He has seen four shots in three of his last four league appearances.
Niklas Sule started at right-back last time out and should be in the same role here. Primarily a centre-back, he possesses a threat when playing out wide with four shots in each of his last two games on the right side of defence.
Atalanta to get a first leg result
Atalanta v Real Madrid
Same Game Multi: Atalanta or Draw, Under 3.5 Goals and Duvan Zapata 1+ shot on target @ 2.89/5
Atalanta have moved into favouritism for this first leg, and that is completely understandable given how impressive a side they are, and the huge injury issues that Real Madrid have.
The Italians showcased an ability in the group stage to keep things tighter defensively, and I think that will be at play again here, though Madrid have started to look more solid at the back in recent weeks. Atalanta should get a result in a low-scoring game.
To boost the price a tad, add in Duvan Zapata to have 1+ shot on target. The Colombian is averaging 2.04 shots on target per game in the UCL this term.
Efficient City to win a low-scorer
Borussia Mönchengladbach v Manchester City
Same Game Multi: Manchester City to win, Under 3.5 Goals and both Gabriel Jesus and Keven De Bruyne 1+ shot on target 5.04/1
Manchester City are on a tear, with victory over Arsenal their 18th straight win in all competitions, and it is hard to make a case for anything other than an away win here - especially given how well City have defended the counter attack of late.
Gladbach could struggle to impose themselves on this game at all, and they are all too familiar with Manchester City, having played eachother in the group stage in 2015 and 2016. It should be another controlled display from Pep's side, so an away win and under 3.5 is preferred.
Throw in Kevin De Bruyne and Gabriel Jesus to get a shot on target each and we get 5.0. We could witness one-way traffic in this game, which should lead to plenty of attempts from City.
Atletico Madrid v Chelsea - Under 2.5 goals, Mason Mount to have 1+ shots on target at 4.03/1
Lazio v Bayern Munich - Bayern to win, Leon Goretzka and Niklas Sule to have 1+ shots on target at 12.011/1
Atalanta v Real Madrid - Atalanta or Draw, Under 3.5 Goals and Duvan Zapata 1+ shot on target at 2.89/5
Borussia Mönchengladbach v Manchester City - Manchester City to win, Under 3.5 Goals and both Gabriel Jesus and Kevin De Bruyne 1+ shot on target 5.04/1