Republic of Ireland v Azerbaijan: Irish look for home crowd to lift spirits

Republic of Ireland v Azerbaijan
Saturday September 4, 17:00
Live On Sky Sports

Ireland's Ronaldo hangover

After coming within minutes of a famous victory over Portugal in Faro on Wednesday, Stephen Kenny's Ireland could do with avoiding drama against Azerbaijan on Saturday evening.

Kenny is still looking for a first home win and a first goal in Dublin, and a record of just one win in 14 games since taking charge still hangs over the manager. It doesn't tell the full story of his year in the hotseat. Stirring away performances in Slovakia, Serbia and Portugal have ended in bitter disappointment. If anything, the Portuguese reverse has upped the tale of woe a notch.

Kenny's side were leading as the clock ticked into the 89th minute but world record-breaker Cristiano Ronaldo levelled things up with a header and then wriggled free of Seamus Coleman to dispatch another in the sixth minute of injury time.

As Ronaldo celebrated, Kenny's group were clearly devastated. Several young players had risen to the challenge, while wing backs Coleman and Matt Doherty put in their best displays for Ireland in some time. That's why there is a huge psychological element to Ireland's first ever meeting with Azerbaijan on Saturday.

Different kind of challenge

There's a flaw in any assessment that Ireland need to bring the performance level from Wednesday into this game as the brief will be so different.

Instead of intelligently soaking up pressure and striking effectively on the counter, the challenge is to find the creativity to break down an opponent that will seek to defend in numbers on occasion.

Kenny must also weigh up fatigue as a factor. In March, he followed an eventful 3-2 away defeat in Serbia - a game that might have swung both ways - with a drab 1-0 loss at home to Luxembourg which smacked of a hangover from Belgrade. He didn't shake the team up and has vowed to learn from that mistake as their energy levels were low.

Unsurprisingly, Ireland are the favourites at 1.618/13 but there's a natural caution about steaming in at those odds although the suspicion is that they may shorten closer to kickoff.

The atmosphere angle

Perhaps the play here is to hope that lethargy is avoided by a shrewd rotation of options and the presence of 25,000 fans.

All of Kenny's home matches have taken place behind closed doors and a number of the individuals he has promoted from the U21 squad have never benefited from that support on their own patch.

There was some negative commentary around Kenny's tenure with Ireland prior to Portugal and the FAI were struggling to sell all of the tickets for Azerbaijan and Tuesday's match with Serbia.

Yet there has been a positive reaction to the near miss in Faro and that should help to create an encouraging vibe in the stadium.

The expected return of West Brom's Callum Robinson from a Covid related absence is welcome.

Kenny can also call on the fresh legs of Troy Parrott, the Spurs striker who has made a good start to his loan move to MK Dons and will be suited to a match where Ireland need predatory instincts around the area as opposed to sniffing chances on the counter.

Brighton's Aaron Connolly might be vulnerable after an up and down showing in Portugal that looked to challenge his fitness levels too. But Norwich's Adam Idah impressed and struck up a good partnership with Parrott at underage level.

They have the ability to ask questions of an Azeri rearguard that conceded two first-half goals in Luxembourg on their way to a 2-1 loss in Luxembourg on Wednesday. Like Ireland, they have a record of three games and three losses in this group, all of those defeats coming by a single goal.

But if Kenny's side are to make a statement about their intentions under this manager, they need to lay down a marker from the outset.

In that context, the belief that Ireland can win this game is fuelled by the expectation of a strong start. The recommendation is to go Ireland/Ireland at 2.568/5 in the Half Time/Full Time market.

Midfield goal threat

For a bigger price bet, there's an obvious temptation to look at goalscorer markets. Conor Hourihane is the interesting one here.

Kenny is a fan of the Corkman and has hinted he will rotate his midfielders in this window. Hourihane warmed up on a number of occasions in Faro without getting on the pitch. But after completing a loan switch from Aston Villa to Sheffield United, he is a natural contender to start here and this type of fixture should provide the technically proficient left footer with shooting opportunities from outside the area both in general play and from free kicks.

He's worth a tentative play to score anytime with 10/3 the odds. Alternatively, Hourihane is 13/2 (first goalscorer) and 8/1 (last goalscorer).