Premier League xG Tips: City scorching hot

HOT trends?

No sign of City slip-up

Manchester City have turned on the after burners in the last few weeks, simply blowing away everyone in front of them.

Their Champions League exit aside, Pep's team have been irrestistable.

They have won their last four Premier League games by an aggregate scoreline of 19-2, racking up an average of 3.63 xGF per game in that time.

That is simply staggering.

Defensively they have been equally as impressive (0.76 xGA per game), and it wouldn't be a surprise to see them all-but seal the title this weekend at West Ham.

Due to their superior goal difference to Liverpool, a win at the London Stadium would mean a point would be enough on the final day to secure another title, and a defeat could also be enough.

West Ham do pose a threat to City's backline, but it's hard not to see City score at least two given the mood they are in.

Goals could be on the cards, with Over 3.0 Asian Goals appealing at odds against on the Exchange.

Spurs home process key

Tottenham were excellent in midweek at home to Arsenal, and their home process since Atonio Conte took charge has ben tremendous.

Only Liverpool (2.49) and Manchester City (2.37) have picked up more expected points (xP) per home game than Spurs (2.10) in that time, with their underlying process of 2.27 xGF and 0.96 xGA per game fantastic.

The win over their arch rivals has made the top four race a tight one yet, with just one point between them, so any slip up will be extremely costly for either.

Arsenal are still the favourites according to the Infogol model, but Spurs have increased their chances from 22% last week to 43.1% this.

Spurs, with their excellent home process, welcome Burnley on Sunday, while Arsenal face a tougher test as they visit Newcastle on Monday.

Given Burnley's new found attacking impetus, backing Tottenham to win and Over 2.5 Goals on Sunday appeals at odds against on the Exchange.

COLD trends?

Leeds have attacking issues

It has been a bad few weeks for Leeds, with three straight defeats coupled with their relegation rivals picking up wins, seeing them drop into the bottom three.

Their chance of relegation has now jumped to 62.4% according to the Infogol model, which isn't a surprise.

They have faced three of the top four in their last three matches, but even before then their attacking process had started to dip.

Over their last five they have averaged 0.78 xGF per game, which isn't enough to get results at this level.

Early red cards have hurt them desperately in their last two, and those suspensions, couple with injuries, mean their final two games will be struggles.

Brighton are in town on Sunday, and they are hot, especially in attack.

The Seagulls have racked up 2+ xGF in their last three, netting 2+ in those games too, so seeing Brighton +0 Asian Handiap priced around even money on the Exchange needs snapping up.

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