Premier League Weekend Tips: Saints, sinners, and Spurs' Son to shine

Southampton v Norwich (Friday, 20:00) - An early lead at St Marys

The Saints have lost only one in their last 10 across all competitions and only failed to score twice (on away trips to the Emirates and Anfield) in their last 20. They are a very different and better proposition right now to the side that was on nodding terms with the drop-zone at the tail-end of 2021.

There are many reasons for their upturn in fortunes but an aspect that intrigues is their new-found trait of starting games brightly,. On six occasions in their last 15 Premier League fixtures, Southampton have scored inside 10 minutes.

Will they clip the Canaries' wings early on Friday evening? With the visitors' defence reeling from consecutive deconstructions by the hands of Manchester City and Liverpool, they just might.

Southampton to lead on 30 minutes is 2.5

Leeds v Tottenham (Saturday, 12:30) - Son is going to rise

The popular meme of two Spidermans pointing at each other should be on the front cover of the matchday programme for this one. Both teams are mired in crisis, with Leeds hemorrhaging 3+ goals in their last four games and Spurs losing four of their last five and wishing they could play Manchester City every week.

We could dissect their respective struggles all day long but let's make this straightforward. Son Heung-min has scored twice and assisted once in his previous three meetings with Leeds and, more pertinently, has five assists in his last eight in the league. If Leeds don't concede it will be a minor miracle and the Korean forward will likely be involved.

Son is 3.3 to assist anytime

Brentford v Newcastle (Saturday, 15:00) - Bees missing their sting

One win in their last 10 has sent the Bees spiraling into the relegation mix and a further loss this weekend could be seismic, with a much-improved Newcastle looking to leap-frog them. Like or loathe the phrase, this is a real six-pointer.

It bodes badly for Thomas Frank's side that their figures are worsening. In their last four games they have executed shots on target every 51 minutes and for a team with a bang-average chance conversion rate that's not going to get you many points. Against Arsenal last weekend they failed to win a single corner.

All season long there have been flaws in Brentford's make-up but their attacking intent has seen them through. Now that is largely absent.

Under 9.5 corners is around 1.9 and tempts

Brighton v Aston Villa (Saturday, 15:00) - A revival of sorts at the Amex

Where in the name of Fatboy Slim did Brighton's 3-0 reverse to Burnley come from? The Seagulls have been impressive all term and even when bettered they typically don't lose to a three-goal margin. The last team to do that to them was Manchester City in October. Before then you must go back to 2020.

As for Villa, they too succumbed to a good old-fashioned coupon-buster, coming unstuck at home to shot-shy Watford and this means both sides go into this wounded by consecutive defeats that risk souring sustained periods of optimism.

The return of Lewis Dunk from suspension and Adam Webster from injury are huge pluses for the hosts so let's try for a score-draw again, which is always Brighton's go-to at the first hint of trouble. Graham Potter's men have shared the points in 48% of their league fixtures.

Backing a score-draw offers up a decent 4.5

Crystal Palace v Burnley (Saturday, 15:00) - Goals at unpredictable Palace

Trying to make sense of Palace right now is frankly a fool's errand. Against Watford mid-week they were ruthless. Against Chelsea they were resilient. At Brentford they may as well have not turned up while at Carrow Road at the start of this month Patrick Vieira's side were terrible in the first half but superb in the second period.

They are all things to all men. A bit of this and a bit of that.

Burnley by comparison are far easier to nail down at present, enjoying a sharp spike in form that has given them a realistic chance of survival. Up front Wout Weghorst has galvanized the Clarets attack and at long last the results are coming.

The corresponding fixture in November produced a thrilling 3-3 draw and gut instinct says that goals will feature again.

Over 2.5 goals is around 2.0

Manchester United v Watford (Saturday, 15:00) - Subs to succeed at Old Trafford

With draws talked down and rumours flying around concerning squad disharmony, it is tempting to believe that Ralf Rangnick's impact on United has been minimal. In fact, the Reds are improving; incrementally for sure, but improving nonetheless.

Output from Paul Pogba, Bruno Fernandes and Jadon Sancho is more prominent of late and even if it's only in glimpses from the latter two that's enough to suggest United may not be so reliant on Cristiano Ronaldo to provide a spark. Two goals in two from teenager Anthony Elanga meanwhile - the second in the Champions League, away to Atletico, no less - means there is extra impetus from the bench.

Under the ever-cautious Roy Hodgson, Watford will be set up for a smash-and-grab at Old Trafford and in Emmanuel Dennis they possess a pacy threat to pull it off. But they very likely won't.

The Hornets have conceded five goals in added-on time this term, more than any other side. United have scored 26% of their league goals in the final 10 minutes.

United to score two or more second half goals is well-priced @ 2.5

Everton v Manchester City (Saturday, 17:30) - Champions for a reason

The Toffees have lost five on the bounce at home to City but their two performances in L4 under Frank Lampard have been nothing but positive as the new gaffer seeks to harness the energy of the Gladys Street faithful and make Goodison a fortress. It's easy to imagine the place rocking on Saturday evening.

Furthermore, the visitors head down the M62 nursing a rare dose of self-doubt after finding themselves nullified by Spurs last week but perhaps that surprising loss gives City an even greater edge here. Remarkably, the Blues have only been defeated back-to-back in the league once in the past five years. Losing makes them angry. It sharpens up their teeth.

Riyad Mahrez boasts a decent record in this fixture in recent seasons, scoring twice and assisting twice in his last five encounters. The Algerian winger has also been City's main source for goals lately with 10 in 10.

Mahrez is 4.5 to open the scoring at Goodison

West Ham v Wolves (Sunday, 14:00) - A rout is out this time

Raul Jiminez enjoys squaring up to the Hammers, scoring four in his last six but trumping that consideration is West Ham's impressive record against Wolves in recent seasons, boasting the lion's share of the victories. Last season in this fixture they doled out a 4-0 rout with Jarrod Bowen bagging two. With seven goals in his last eight games, the 25-year-old remains Moyes' most potent weapon.

Wolves' second defeat to Arsenal inside a month came about in cruel fashion on Thursday, downed by a 95th minute Sa own-goal but otherwise their form has been excellent for the bulk of their campaign. They are a well-organised defensive unit and extremely tough to break down. Even so, a tight home win is fancied.

Back West Ham to win to nil @ 3.3