Premier League Weekend Tips: Back the Hammers and Newcastle to serve up a goal-fest

West Ham v Newcastle (Saturday, 12:30) - Goals galore

This is a fixture that has treated us to plenty of goals in recent seasons, with 22 in the last five meetings. It's pertinent too that the Magpies have emerged victorious from their two most recent visits to East London.

Determining where the goals might come from naturally leads us to Jarrod Bowen, who has the second-best return for goals and assists combined in the top-flight. Don't rule out a header or two either with 12 converted from these sides this term.

Bowen is 3.5 to continue making an impact and assist anytime

Arsenal v Brentford (Saturday, 15:00) - Gunners low on firepower

The Bees have definitely lost their sting of late, winning only twice in 2022 across all competitions but at least their goalless and insufferably dull stalemate against Crystal Palace last weekend stopped the rot. They can be encouraged too by the probable return of Ivan Toney, who was rediscovering his scoring mojo until a calf injury set him back.

The Gunners meanwhile are a little light up front with Martinelli suspended and Lacazette doing a lot of heavy lifting linking up play. Arsenal should be fancied here for the points, but they will conceivably make hard work of it.

Under 2.5 goals is a good shout @ 1.83

Aston Villa v Watford (Saturday, 15:00) - Hornets missing their buzz

The visitors have yet to score since Roy Hodgson arrived to steady the sinking ship and his cautious set-up is not giving them much opportunity to. The Hornets have offered up just a single shot on target in each of their last two games.

Can we expect any different at Villa Park? In short, no, though it's also probably best not to get too carried away by Villa's new-look attack, spearheaded by a revived Philippe Coutinho. Under Gerrard, the hosts now play on the front foot and are eminently more watchable, but results remain inconsistent.

They will be too strong for Watford here though barring an unexpected change of approach from retirement-dodging Roy.

Villa are 2.7 to win to nil

Brighton v Burnley (Saturday, 15:00) - Drawn to the draw

In the second-half against Manchester United and for the entirety vs Liverpool, the Clarets looked a much improved proposition, revitalized by the powerful presence of new signing Wout Weghurst up top. Yet still, we come back to the overall stats that damn Sean Dyche's side as relegation fare this season.

Just one league win in 2021/22 can best be explained by their meagre shots on target tally, a lacklustre 68 that runs of the risk of ultimately being the lowest in the Premier League for a decade. Even on the rare occasions they do trouble an opposition keeper Burnley have the second-worst conversion rate around.

Third-worst however is Brighton so it's reasonable to expect a good few chances going awry at the Amex and very possibly these spurned opportunities will result in a sharing of the points. Combined, these draw specialists have drawn 51.1% of their league fixtures this season.

A score-draw has to be backed here @ 5.5

Crystal Palace v Chelsea (Saturday, 15:00) - Romelu returns

Just as their injury list was clearing up nicely the recently crowned World Champions are now denied Mason Mount for the short-term though two goals in two for Romelu Lukaku over in Abu Dhabi was a very welcome fillip for a forward line that has too often needed assistance from their defenders in 2021/22.

A remarkable fifteen of Chelsea's league goals this term have come courtesy of their back-line and in this regard no-one else comes close. It also lends itself to this startling factoid: the Blues' rearguard have scored 33% more goals than an attacking collective that cost the equivalent of a small nation's GDP.

Palace for their part come into this all-capital affair having drawn three in their last four and would gladly extend that record. With Lukaku back among the goals though that feels like a forlorn hope.

Six of Lukaku's 10 goals this term have broken the deadlock. The Belgian hitman is 4.0 to open the scoring at Selhurst Park

Liverpool v Norwich (Saturday, 15:00) - Reds will be rampant

Even with the in-form Diogo Jota unavailable, you fear for the Canaries at Anfield. They last triumphed there in 1994, only managing two draws since and when their head-to-head is extended to home and away and in every competition it only gets worse. In their last ten meetings, Liverpool have won on each occasion netting 35 times in the process.

A brief upturn in fortunes for Dean Smith's men recently was never sustainable given the extent they were outperforming their xG while their miserable return against the top six this term is something to behold. In eight straight defeats they have failed to score and conceded every 25 minutes.

Liverpool to score four or more offers up 2.63

Southampton v Everton (Saturday, 15:00) - Saints call the shots

Frank Lampard's initial gameplan with the Toffees is clearly to harness the club's tremendous support and align that with more progressive football. Obviously, this is far more doable at Goodison than on the road.

At Newcastle earlier this month Everton were little short of abysmal and though we shouldn't expect a performance like that again nor should we believe this will be the same energized side witnessed on Merseyside last weekend.

Southampton are in a good place right now, having lost only once in their last eight commitments and their new-found sense of adventure is illustrated by a much-improved shot-count. At Spurs and against Manchester United they averaged 22 per game.

Back the Saints to rack up 16 or more shots @ 2.2

Manchester City v Tottenham (Saturday, 17:30) - Spurs to stumble again

City will be wary of Son Heung-min, a player who has scored seven times against the Blues in recent years. The Korean forward may not be enjoying a vintage season, but he's still struck 32.1% of Tottenham's league goals.

That aside, it's hard to look past the ruthless hosts extending on their long unbeaten streak that has seen them accrue an astonishing 43 points from 45 since losing to Crystal Palace back in October. All told, this term City have taken the lead in 80% of their games and won every one of them. They also happen to have kept more clean sheets at this juncture than at any time under Pep Guardiola.

Raheem Sterling and Benardo Silva are two of only six players who have scored four match-winners in the Premier League but let's concentrate on the opening phases instead because City don't waste any time these days in getting off the mark.

Backing City to be ahead on 20 minutes has served us well this season. Let's go for it again @ 2.88

Leeds v Manchester United (Sunday, 14:00) - Old rivals to see yellow

A lot has changed since the Reds blew Leeds away on the opening day of the season, a 5-1 demolition that prompted the club's Twitter account to publish the league table, admittedly in jest.

One thing that hasn't altered however is Marcelo Bielsa's side stubbornly setting themselves up far too openly against opponents that can hurt them and this we have seen evidenced time and again.

Paul Pogba has assisted for Bruno Fernandes on four occasions to date, the most productive combination in the league, so that's a decent shout regarding a goal-source. But this one is all about bookings, especially as it's a fiery clash at the best of times.

Both sides are in the bottom three of the fair play table while the referee in charge, Paul Tierney has dished out more yellows this term than any of his colleagues.

Over 5.5 cards is a mightily tempting 4.33

Wolves v Leicester (Sunday, 16:30) - Foxes find respite

The Foxes have conceded a whopping 11 times from corners this season, a weakness that is now gaining national attention, so they'll be somewhat relieved it's Wolves they're facing on Sunday. Bruno Lage's side have won the third fewest number of corners in 2021/22, an average of just 4.35 per game.

The hosts meanwhile will be thankful of a Leicester trait that balances out their own Achilles heel. All campaign long the Wanderers have responded poorly to going behind, winning only once from the nine times they have conceded first. It's a blessing therefore for the home side that their opponents have an unfortunate habit of being breached in the first half, likely rendering a comeback of any kind unnecessary.

Under 4.5 corners for Wolves is well-priced @ 2.55