Premier League Weekend Tips: A party for Vardy and Mane to shine

Leicester v Leeds (Saturday, 12:30) - Skittles and vodka at the King Power

Leicester's leading goal-scorer in the league this season is Jamie Vardy with only James Maddison within touching distance. This feels wholly unsurprising, perhaps even inevitable.

Only then it's acknowledged that the 35-year-old has played just 62% of his team's game-time this season and we can conclude that one of the Foxes' primary problems is that nobody has stepped up in his absence and become the main man.

If that is troubling with the arch-poacher's retirement somewhere on the horizon it is less of a concern right now, because last Tuesday at Burnley, Vardy returned from injury to notch his 94th top-flight goal since turning 30.
"He is a huge boost for us," Brendan Rodgers said post-victory. "To have that quality and mentality back in the team will help us."

Leeds conceded an average of four goals per game across February and have frankly been shambolic of late, but the arrival of new boss Jesse Marsch gives them an unpredictable edge.

It's best therefore to stick with what we know, and that is where there's a Vardy, a party is not far behind.

Back Vardy to open the scoring @ 3.75

Aston Villa v Southampton (Saturday, 15:00) - Saints and sinners

Steven Gerrard has got Villa playing more on the front foot and more in the opposition's faces, and this has considerably improved their output. Prior to his arrival, the Villans had scratched together 0.7 points-per-game. In the 14 games since, that has doubled to 1.4 ppg.

Such a dramatic change of approach however comes at a cost, namely a disciplinary issue that's seen the Midlands giants plummet in the fair play table. Away to Brighton last week they picked up four bookings in the first half alone.

The Saints are hardly saints in this regard either and though there are many elements to this clash that intrigues, what most stands out is the probability of aggro.

Over 4.5 cards is around 2.0

Burnley v Chelsea (Saturday, 15:00) - Blues start as they mean to go on

The timing of Luton Town's opener at Chelsea's expense this week shocked as much as the goal itself because under Thomas Tuchel the Blues don't typically concede early. Remarkably, it was only the third time they have been breached inside 25 minutes in 41 games this term.

Add all those 25 minutes up and it amounts to three goals against in a little over 17 hours of football. As stated, that's remarkable.

Furthermore, Chelsea's consistent early resistance is usually extended to the break. No other team have conceded fewer first half goals in the top-flight to date.

Burnley too demand patience from opponents, except that is when they face the top six. Against Manchester City and Manchester United - twice - they have come undone in the early knockings.

Chelsea to be ahead after 30 mins is around 2.6

Newcastle v Brighton (Saturday, 15:00) - Stalemate kings have gone stale

The Seagulls have been widely praised this season and rightly so, but the south-coast-chilly fact is they have won only three games since mid-September, relying too often on draws to maintain their top ten aspiration.

In recent weeks those draws have deserted Graham Potter's side and it's not a coincidence the goals have dried up too. Brighton have failed to find the back of the net for 278 minutes.

Newcastle, by stark contrast, are scoring regularly though in truth, that was never their chief concern anyway. At the back they have conceded only three in their last six contests and this newly-discovered parsimony can swiftly get a team out of the relegation mire.

Newcastle to win to nil is a decent shout @ 4.5

Norwich v Brentford (Saturday, 15:00) - Honours even in a nervy affair

Is Brentford's campaign unravelling, after winning over neutrals prior to Christmas with a series of adventurous displays? Certainly, a solitary win in 2022 doesn't bode well ahead of what can only be described as a relegation six-pointer at Carrow Road this weekend.

The return of a fully fit Ivan Toney is a big plus for the Bees, who have only managed to trouble the opposition keeper every 56 minutes in their last five matches while Norwich will once again turn to Teemu Pukki for inspiration. The Finnish forward has scored 40% of the Canaries' league goals.

A score-bore, sorry, score-draw is around 4.3

Wolves v Crystal Palace (Saturday, 15:00) - Wolves have lost their bite

Consecutive defeats in the capital have given Wolves plenty of pause for thought just as they were eying up a top six spot and Bruno Lage's side can't even claim they were unfortunate against Arsenal and West Ham, accruing just three shots on target across the two games.

Not that the Black Country outfit have been especially fertile in front of goal this season, scoring on average every 97 minutes but with a defence as well organized as theirs, that is not normally a huge concern.

Palace will fancy their chances at Molineux, having won out 2-0 in the corresponding fixture back in November. Just don't expect a goal-fest.

Go for under 1.5 goals @ 2.6

Liverpool v West Ham (Saturday, 17:30) - Mane the main man

With Diogo Jota and Luis Diaz both having quickly established themselves as integral parts of Liverpool's front three and Salah ferociously brilliant on a weekly basis, it has left Sadio Mane a somewhat overlooked figure this season. There have even been claims he has fallen below his usual levels of excellence.

In fact, the Senegalese international has nearly matched Salah for prolificacy in sight of goal with a 24% conversion rate just a single percentage below his feted team-mate. Mane is also bang in form with three in his last two Premier League outings and it matters also that he enjoys coming up against the Hammers with five goals and three assists from 11 previous encounters.

West Ham have a poor recent record at Anfield and that goes double for David Moyes who is still to win there in 17 attempts.

Mane to assist anytime is good value @ 4.0

Watford v Arsenal (Sunday, 14:00) - Arteta's kids to thrive

Statistically no other team have created a higher percentage of their chances down the middle than the Gunners and that reflects highly on Alexandre Lacazette even if the French forward has hardly been prolific by his standards in 2021/22. His work-rate and movement in central areas have allowed his younger team-mates to thrive and boy have they done so. Bukayo Saka is the only player under the age of 21 to reach double figures for goals and assists in the Premier League. Emile Smith Rowe meanwhile has a shot accuracy of 78%, a league high. It also happens to be astonishing.

Arsenal have won three on the bounce away from home while Watford have lost seven in a row at Vicarage Road. It's hard to see these trends changing on Sunday.

Arsenal to win and score over 2.5 goals is around 2.6

Manchester City v Manchester United (Sunday, 16:30) - A one-sided derby

United's wastefulness in front of goal continued at home to Watford last week, with Ralf Rangnick's men racking up 22 attempts to no avail. What they wouldn't give right now for a clinical finisher such as Edinson Cavani but the Uruguayan is injured at present.

And the Reds cannot afford to take their sloppiness into the 187th Manchester derby, not against a City rearguard that usually affords opponents a half-chance per half at best.

At the other end, the league champions remain remorseless with Riyad Mahrez leading the way in the goal-scoring stakes. The Algerian has converted 11 in his last 12 games.

Expect the hosts to control the narrative of this contest and for that to translate into winning lots of corners. In their last five home fixtures, City have averaged 9.6.

The Blues are fancied to win over 8.5 corners @ 2.4

Tottenham v Everton (Monday, 20:00) - Spurs to spark early

To put Frank Lampard's task into perspective, this is the Toffees lowest points haul to this stage of a league campaign for over 90 years. And though there have been some encouraging signs - mainly at Goodison, emboldened by their passionate fans - this is still a side that have gone behind on 19 occasions this season. This is still a side that has scored only eight times in the first period of games, equating to a goal every two-and-a-bit hours.

Tottenham of course also have their problems as they continue to blow hot and cold, but their habit of getting off the mark before the half-time oranges will serve them well here.

Spurs to be ahead at half time is a tempting 2.1