Premier League: Which newly-promoted club will survive?

The Premier League is a daunting prospect for any newly promoted club these days. The financial chasm between the top tier and the second means that all 17 of those already in the division have an economic advantage over the three that join - and things look even more ominous than usual ahead of the 2022/23 season.

Perhaps it is a little bit early for such pessimism. This is the time for fans of Fulham, Bournemouth, and particularly Nottingham Forest to be excited; what else is the off-season for, if not to dream big of things to come?

And all three will feel confident, each having seemingly been promoted at the right time. Fulham were utterly dominant and clearly too good for the Championship. Bournemouth have gained promotion at the second time of asking, and look far stronger than they did in 2020/21. Forest have surged from nowhere, but manager Steve Cooper is on an upswing and it's hard not to get swept up in the story.

Nevertheless the Premier League looks strong right now. Leeds United will surely struggle with a whole season of Jesse Marsch, likely to scrub away the Marcelo Bielsa era and, therefore, see them regress to their natural level - especially without Rafinha. Southampton have performed worse year on year under Ralf Hasenhuttl and may finally see the bottom fall out.

But that's it. Above those two, the other 15 are all managed well and coached to a very high quality, making survival an uphill challenge for all of the newly promoted sides.

Fulham to suffer from Silva's openness

Marco Silva's Premier League record at Hull City, Watford, and Everton is not very good. In all three jobs his teams played very attacking football, committing huge numbers forward in highly-choreographed patterns that suggested he was aligned with the tactical trends of modern football. But the level of players at his disposal was a problem.

Even Everton, who came eighth in Silva's only full season in charge, ultimately struggled to play quite such attacking football, their unbelievably leaky defence in line with what fans of Hull and Watford saw. Sadly, it seems Fulham will go the same way in 2022/23.

Fulham were superb in the Championship, scoring 106 goals in a season defined by brilliant possession football. Their style regularly drew comparisons with Pep Guardiola, and yet the jump to the Premier League most likely makes this style a weakness, not a strength.

Silva has already gone on record saying he will not adapt his tactics for the challenge ahead. That means pouring bodies forward, and leaving space behind, in a division packed with managers who diligently prepare a Germanic system of transition- and counter-based football. They will probably be repeatedly exposed, leading to a string of heavy defeats and Silva's demise... which is exactly what happened at Hull, Watford, and Everton.

Add to that the departure of key player Fabio Carvalho to Liverpool, and the fact Aleksandar Mitrovic has a history of struggling in the top flight, and it's looking pretty grim.

Back Fulham to go down at 2.111/10

Cautious Parker will take it close

Bournemouth stand a better chance than Fulham because Scott Parker isn't quite as gung-ho, even if he too likes to play a high-pressing possession game. One of the main complaints about his team thorughout 2021/22 was an unwillingness to take risks, with their passing very cautious and commitment to attack minimal.

That is a decent starting point for the Premier League, where Bournemouth will be forced to hold less of the ball and be patient in how and when they build their attacks. It helps significantly that Parker is experienced, having performed relatively well at Fulham in his single season as a top-flight manager.

That year, he learnt quite late in the game to be defensive when necessary and focus on keeping things tight - explaining the hesitancy at Bournemouth and possibly pointing to a more successful campaign this time around. Those backing Bournemouth will also note plenty of Premier League experience in the ranks, from a solid midfield partnership of Philip Billing and Jefferson Lerma to Nat Phillips in defence.

Dominic Solanke is one of the players to have most benefitted from Parker's talented coaching, scoring 29 goals in the Championship, and he will be relishing another shot at the Premier League - as will Todd Cantwell. The component parts are there for Bournemouth to scrape 35-40 points and hover just above the line, but in a competitive year, the safer bet is still for the Cherries to finish in the bottom three.

Back Bournemouth to go down at 1.738/11

Forest can follow Brentford & Sheff Utd

There always seems to be one team who spring a surprise, using a burst of freshness and energy through the autumn to get points on the board and become everyone's favourite second team. Nottingham Forest seem the best placed to do that this season, having soared into the Premier League after Cooper took charge with the club rock bottom with seven games played.

Cooper is renowned throughout the game as an exceptional tactician and coach, whose attention to detail has dramatically risen the level of everyone at the club. What's more, Forest play the kind of complex attacking football - mixing directness and compression between the lines with sharp counters - that has defined similar stories at Brentford and Sheffield United in recent years.

Forest always take the game to the opposition, just without the kind of aggressive openness we see from Fulham. It is noteworthy that they were competitive in the FA Cup this season, beating Arsenal and Leicester City before narrowly losing 1-0 to eventual winners Liverpool. All three teams were shocked by the confidence and tactical awareness of Cooper's side.

It will take a few savvy purchases this summer, of course, but with young Brennan Johnson - who amassed 19 goals and 10 assists in the Championship - Nottingham Forest can ride the high of their unlikely promotion and survive the drop.

Lay Forest to go down with Betfair Exchange at 1.910/11