Premier League Weekend Tips: Top four race hots up as Spurs hit home advantage

Tottenham v Burnley (Sunday, 12:00) - Son always shines on TV

Son Heung-min doesn't have an outstanding record against the Clarets, in comparison to his strike-rates elsewhere. Balancing that out, one of his three goals in 11 was the Goal of the Season in 2019/20, an individual effort that still astounds.

The Korean forward notched his 21st of this term on Thursday evening, amidst the fiery environs of a north London derby. With Harry Kane back to his lethal best, this formidable pairing have scored 57% of Tottenham's league haul, assisting 17 times combined for good measure.

There is a lot to like about Spurs right now, but this remarkable duo will always grab the attention.

Burnley defender James Tarkowski's possible absence with a tight hamstring is a crucial consideration in this lunchtime clash that will go a long way to determining the top four and relegation narratives. The 29-year-old is Burnley's organiser-in-chief at the back and would be a huge miss. Paul Robinson has included a Spurs win as part of a 12/1 treble.

Aston Villa v Crystal Palace (Sunday, 14:00) - Palace under siege

Two iconic Premier League midfielders go head-to-head in the technical area for the second time this season with Villa's 2-1 win at Selhurst Park last November sowing the seeds for Steven Gerrard's honeymoon period, before reality bit deep and the defeats began to rack up.

What stood out from that fixture was Villa's ability to dig out 10 attempts on goal despite only having a third of the possession throughout. It's encouraging to see their front-foot approach with the ball return of late. In their last five games Villa have averaged 14.4 shots per 90 and that's a 19% increase on their season's average as a whole.

It's no coincidence therefore that Ollie Watkins looks bang back in form, the striker boasting three in six.

Palace are typically decent on their travels so the temptation is to go for BTTS. Backing Villa to continue their high shot-count, however, is where the real value lies.

Leeds v Brighton (Sunday, 14:00) - A fate almost sealed

If results go against Leeds this weekend, then it's all over for them bar a miracle and the shouting, a situation that felt unlikely a few weeks ago, until they encountered three of the 'top six' in quick succession.

Leeds' woeful record against the elite this term has gone a long way to deciding their fate, losing all 12 encounters, and conceding an average of 3.9 goals per loss. It's an unremitting failing that gained a new dimension against Man City, Arsenal and Chelsea, with goals conceded early on each occasion and twice finding themselves a man down in the first-half.

The unfortunate habit of Jesse Marsch's side to quickly go behind is worthy of note considering that Brighton have twice got off the mark inside 15 minutes in their last three games. It's ill-discipline that jumps out as a key consideration here though, especially in a contest where heads might 'go'.

Leeds are bottom of the fair play table by some considerable margin while the Seagulls are hardly saintly, residing 16th. Tom Victor is backing a Brighton win in his xG round-up.

Watford v Leicester (Sunday, 14:00) - Kicked when down

The Foxes have only won once on the road since October but they will fancy their chances here against a relegated Watford who already have one eye on this summer and a chance to rebuild.

In their last four games, the Hornets have averaged just a single shot on target per 90. Even if Roy Hodgson has orchestrated the occasional clean sheet since boarding the sinking ship, this is still a hapless, error-prone back-line that has been breached every 46 minutes in 2021/22. Apologies for stating the obvious but that's nigh-on a goal conceded per half, every half, all season long.

Leicester have Jamie Vardy back fit and firing and James Maddison in good form. They could potentially fill their boots at Vicarage Road.

West Ham v Man City (Sunday, 14:00) - Score lots and make-do

Title-chasing City have ramped up their already formidable goal-scoring output in recent games, becoming the first side in the top-flight to ever win five consecutive matches by a 3+ margin in beating Wolves 5-1 on Wednesday evening.

City's record against West Ham is just as one-sided, blasting them by fours and fives on a semi-regular basis in Pep Guardiola's time and losing only once since 2015, that to a League Cup penalty shoot-out. All of which suggests that a Hammers back-line that has kept only two clean sheets in their last 12 might be in for a troublesome afternoon.

Yet don't discount the Blues having problems of their own at the other end, weakened as they are by an injury crisis that has struck at the worst possible time. With John Stones, Ruben Dias, Aymeric Laporte all out and stand-in centre-back Fernandinho struggling with a muscle knock there is the possibility of a makeshift pairing of a half-fit Nathan Ake and Rodri filling the void this Sunday.

Michail Antonio and 10-goal man Jarrod Bowen will be relishing the prospect.

Wolves v Norwich (Sunday, 14:00) - There is no U in team

Any side can suffer a hammering at the hands of Manchester City, even miserly Wolves who all campaign have placed great stock - and reaped the benefits - of being a well-drilled defensive unit that is immensely difficult to break down.

Until Wednesday's chastising Conor Coady and company had been bested every 92.6 minutes in 2021/22, exasperating deadly and in-form strike forces along the way.

Relegated Norwich do not possess a deadly or in-form strike force. They rely too heavily on Teemu Pukki showing an occasional flash of acuity but elsewhere they are wasteful on good days and shot-shy the rest of the time. The Canaries haven't found the back of the net now in over six-and-a-half hours of Premier League football.

Everton v Brentford (Sunday, 16:30) - Basics and bee stings

Eleven points from 18 have lifted the Toffees to relative safety but one stumble could see them mired again in quicksand.

It is a half-realised recovery brought about by Frank Lampard deconstructing his side to basics, playing five at the back and very much favouring fortitude over flair. Avoiding defeat is the be all and end all and this was evidenced at Watford mid-week where a drab goalless affair was - rightly -portrayed as a positive.

If the ends justify the means, it's also an approach that comes with risk, especially against a side as dangerous on their day as Brentford. The Bees have won three of their last five away games and scored three times recently inside 15 minutes.

Should the visitors convert early it will leave the Blues in need of inspiration from a side that has been deliberately stripped of it.

Newcastle v Arsenal (Monday, 20:00) - An immediate response

It's hard to gauge the current health of Newcastle, with consecutive losses to title-chasing Liverpool and City both excusable. Prior to that, four wins on the bounce ignited optimism and excitement for what might transpire next term. St James' Park will be bouncing on Monday night and Bruno Guimaraes will be brilliant. These two factors should not be under-played.

As for the Gunners, how they psychologically respond to a seismic defeat across North London will go a long way to determining this fixture. Last November a humbling and heavy set-back at Anfield abruptly halted all momentum but Mikel Arteta's side immediately returned to winning ways, beating Newcastle via two second-half goals.

Thursday evening was a more significant reality check for Arsenal, but let's give them the benefit of the doubt and believe they can go again.