Premier League Key Battles: Man Utd to win at Chelsea

• Forest defence a big test for Liverpool
• Kamikaze Bighton to lose at Man City
• Man Utd can defeat Chelsea

Defensive Forest an important test of the 4-2-4

Nottingham Forest v Liverpool
Saturday, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1

Steve Cooper has made a dramatic tactical alteration since signing a new contract, a move that perhaps reflects just how big a reset that moment was. Aware that he is now in it for the long haul, Cooper has decided to make Forest into a purely defensive team, replacing the expressive passing football for a very low block with no spaces between the players.

In the three matches since his new contract Forest have averaged 40.7% possession and conceded just two goals. This is definitely the tactical system they will deploy to try to stop Liverpool, who will again use the 4-2-4 formation that has led to a revival for Jurgen Klopp thanks to its sheer aggression; the use of four up front has recalibrated the high press and minimised problems developing in midfield and defence.

But this is its first major test up against a low block. With Diogo Jota injured, much will rest on how Trent Alexander-Arnold, Harvey Elliot, and Mohamed Salah combine on the other flank. After an exhausting week, the visitors may find themselves frustrated by the lack of space in the final third.

Back under 2.5 goals at 2.6313/8

Bold Brighton to sew chaos

Man City v Brighton
Saturday, 15:00

Roberto de Zerbi has been remarkably bold since taking over at Brighton. They have held more than 70% possession in their last two games - the first time they have ever achieved that in the Premier League - as part of a very hard pressing strategy of quick possession football. The most important example was De Zerbi's debut, a chaotic 3-3 draw with Liverpool that could be repeated on Saturday.

That day, De Zerbi targeted Liverpool's weakness in the transition and in their right-back position through Leandro Trossard, and while Man City do not have a similar flaw Brighton will fearlessly take the game to them. That means an unusual amount of pressure down in-form Trossard's side, where Joao Cancelo is largely absent, and it means running at the heart of a Man City midfield that can be under-stocked in this area.

Newcastle United drew 3-3 with Man City by being aggressive and taking advantage of the more stretched Man City shape now that Erling Haaland is in the team. Brighton can break quickly in a similar manner, although their higher line should leave them brutally exposed to Haaland and Kevin de Bruyne. Expect a wild game that will ultimately allow the hosts to score as many as they want.

Back over 4.5 goals at 3.711/4

Awkward Chelsea formation spells trouble

Chelsea v Man Utd
Saturday, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

Graham Potter's 3-4-2-1 is beginning to look very awkward following two poor performances, the first against a direct counter-attacking Aston Villa and the second against a more cautious Brentford. His first 'Big Six' game as Chelsea manager will likely expose the issues he is having in the wing-back positions, where players seem over-worked in the transition and unable to create fluency in the final third.

Manchester United's rapid front three will be able to break on the outside of the three centre-backs and behind the wing-backs, not only because this is the logical way to target Chelsea's flaws but because Erik ten Hag has shown a willingness to sit a little deeper and play on the break in tough matches. Consequently the two-man midfield of Casemiro and Fred should have enough close support to deal with ponderous football from Chelsea.

What's more, Ten Hag's pressing structure is beginning to take shape and is likely to work against a hesitant Chelsea back line, plus Lisandro Martinez was superb at coming out of the defensive line to confront Harry Kane in midweek, suggesting he can keep track of Mason Mount and Kai Havertz.

Back Man Utd to win at 3.55/2

Attacking dearth means dreary game

Tottenham v Newcastle
Sunday, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

Newcastle United have developed into a very effective team this season, playing in a neat midpoint between the high-pressing sides and those who sit deep; Eddie Howe is coaching Newcastle to pounce into action in the middle third and maintain a confrontational stance not unlike Crystal Palace under Patrick Vieira, with the general idea to then release their forwards...

The problem is that, with Alexander Isak and Allan Saint-Maximin injured, they don't have the attacking players to really cause any damage. Tottenham Hotspur are a very conservative team under Antonio Conte and continually serve up dull games unless allowed to sit deep and exploit counter-attacking space in behind the opponent, which Newcastle will not provide.

Consequently, what will be billed as a major test of Newcastle's top-four credentials will be a damp squib. Newcastle and Spurs are both too cautious to allow the other space, and both will surely settle for a low-scoring draw.

Back the draw at 3.55/2