Premier League Midweek ACCA Tips: Brighton to frustrate Man City

Hopeless pressing to allow full flow

Liverpool v Man Utd
Tuesday, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

In the 5-0 defeat at Old Trafford back in November Man Utd's awful pressing - hapazardly undertaken in ones and twos to leave gaping holes for Liverpool to walk through - led to a heavy defeat. It is pretty embarrassing that nothing has changed at United in the six months since, despite a new manager being in the dugout.

Ralf Rangnick is happier to sit off, compressing the space from a safe holding position and not closing down the opposition defenders. However, his players lack discipline and don't appear to be listening to him, which means we can expect more random rushing out from the block to apply pressure, creating the sort of gaps in midfield that we saw from Manchester City in the first half last weekend.

The unusual configuration put out by Pep Guardiola had Phil Foden and Jack Grealish in unusual positions that saw the press fall apart, leading to Liverpool easily cutting through the lines at full flow. They should be able to do that very easily at Anfield against one of the most disorganised teams in the division, leading to a simple win.

Back Liverpool to win with a -1 handicap at 2.01/1

Free-role Mount to attack the right

Chelsea v Arsenal
Wednesday, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

Arsenal have lost four of their last five Premier League matches, partly because young squads tend to go through slumps, struggling to maintain confidence in the face of disappointment, but mainly because they badly miss Kieran Tierney and Thomas Partey. Without their crucial defensive midfielder Arsenal are struggling to stop the opposition from being dominant in the transition, and when that happens they look particularly soft in their left-back position.

Nuno Tavares has not been playing well, although it does not help that he receives inadequate support from Granit Xhaka in central midfield. Mason Mount has been excelling again recently in a slightly changed role for Chelsea, operating freely as a number ten behind Timo Werner and Kai Havertz, and he should quickly realise where the vulnerability is here.

Look out for Mount leaning to the right side to put pressure on Tavares, doubling up with Reece James in that area to create chances for Werner as he makes runs on the shoulder of a bold Arsenal defensive line. This should be a rare chance for Thomas Tuchel to play largely in the transition, as he often likes to, suggesting a very difficult match for the visitors.

Back Chelsea to win with a -1 handicap at 3.412/5

Lampard should settle on a new approach

Everton v Leicester
Wednesday, 19:45

Frank Lampard would like to be playing progressive football based around attacking in high numbers and pressing high up the pitch, but it has been shown over and over again that he is unable to do this with enough sophistication to be a success. But the danger of Everton's position ought to have focused his mind on a simpler strategy, and the 1-0 win over Manchester United in their last game was evidence of a new way forward.

Everton have performed consistently better when sitting deep, closing off space in the simplest old-school way possible. Lampard should be aware this is the way to beat Leicester City, who lost 2-1 at the weekend to a Newcastle United side that held just 31% possession.

Injuries continue to plague their season, and without a natural goalscorer up front they would likely be stumped by an out-and-out defensive formation by the hosts. Missing Jamie Vardy and Wilfried Ndidi, Leicester look disjointed, while Everton are buoyed by a return to form of Fabien Delph to central midfield. They can squeeze through a low-quality game at Goodison Park.

Back Everton to win at 2.35/4

Potter has the tactical model for an upset

Man City v Brighton
Wednesday, 20:00

Brighton have come into good form at just the wrong moment for Pep Guardiola, who faces them after successive wins against Arsenal and Tottenham. Graham Potter's 3-5-2 has been very successful in squeezing out space through the middle of the pitch while relying on Leandro Trossard and Tariq Lamptey to push back in the wide areas, leading the charge as Brighton pass their way calmly out from the back.

Man City historically struggle to play with enough speed when faced with this kind of blockade through the middle, and may again find themselves frustrated for long periods. What's more, Brighton's ability to calmly evade the opponent's counter-press, thanks mostly to the work of Yves Bissouma and Moises Caicedo, means they can avoid being penned in for too long.

Then again, Guardiola's team are far stronger in attack than the stumbling Arsenal, while Spurs were stunted mainly because they were not able to play on the counter-attack through Harry Kane. Eventually City should find the breakthrough, but it may be a tricky game that stays level for a long time.

Back half-time draw at 2.77/4