Football Tips

Premier League Hot and Cold Tips: No stopping Arsenal

Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta
Mikel Arteta's side can overcome another hurdle this week

After two winners and a push from four tips last weekend, Sporting Life's Jake Osgathorpe is back to provide his xG Hot and Cold tips...

HOT trends?

Gunners to keep firing

The way in which Arsenal brushed Tottenham aside last weekend was like that of a title winning team. They were dominant and controlled.

Mikel Arteta's side return home for this huge clash, with their process sensational at the Emirates this season (2.36 xGF, 0.85 xGA per game).

They have won seven of eight home games this term, possess a process akin to that of Manchester City, yet they are still being rated as a few levels below the champions.

When City hosted United earlier this season, they went off at 1.45, so if we can account for an improvement from the Red Devils since then, and even if we say the Gunners aren't quite at 'City level', it's still a stretch to get the price past the 1.8 mark.

We can back Arsenal at 1.94 here, which is simply too big for a team playing at home and racking up the same underlying numbers as City.

This is especially the case when we factor in United will be missing Casemiro, and that their are still question marks around them on their travels.

Erik ten Hag's men have won just five of 10 on the road, beating four of the current bottom six plus Fulham, so have taken no major scalps.

Magpies soaring

Like Arsenal, Newcastle are flying. They are fourth and nine points off the leaders heading to Crystal Palace, where I like them to win again.

A glance at their xGD per game away from home (+0.22) would suggest they aren't the most dominant of travellers, but it has to be noted that Eddie Howe's side have already played away at Liverpool, Manchester United, Tottenham and Arsenal.

If we remove away games against the big six, their underlying numbers look extremely impressive, with their xGD per away game jumping to +0.77.

Against 'the rest', they have been dominant, and given the issues Crystal Palace have shown at Selhurst Park recently, I like the look of 1.97 about the Magpies winning here.

COLD trends?

Cherries being plucked

Bournemouth are bad. They have lost eight of nine league games, with their only victory coming against an equally bad Everton side.

Their attack is woeful, averaging 0.87 xGF per game, while their defence remains in the bottom three in the league (1.81 xGA per game).

At home they are slightly better, but not by much, and an improving Nottingham Forest side are well placed to capitalise this weekend.

Forest have won back-to-back games to climb out of trouble, with one of those victories their first on the road this term against relegation strugglers Southampton.

Last weekend they beat a Leicester side also in the relegation mix, so we could be seeing that this Forest side are just a touch better than those relegation candidates - which includes the Cherries.

They landed a winner for us last week in this column, and I'm happy to play the same bet again, with Nottingham Forest +0 Asian Handicap appealing at 2.0.

Foxes in trouble

We opposed Leicester last weekend, and we are going in again, with the Foxes looking extremely vulnerable currently.

Brendan Rodgers' side have lost all four league games since the restart, allowing 2.04 xGA per game, with their defence now truly relegation-worthy.

That spells major trouble with arguably the hottest attacking team in the Premier League visiting the King Power.

Yes, that is Brighton, with the Seagulls purring under Roberto De Zerbi, winning three of four since the World Cup break - losing only to leaders Arsenal.

They have racked up 1.70 xGF per game since the Italian took charge, and have scored multiple goals in six of their last seven league games, which is the angle in here.

The Seagulls are still a vulnerable defence, which has me hesitating to back them to win the game, but taking Brighton to score 2+ at 2.04 makes great appeal.


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