Wolves to hang on this time
Wolves vs Crystal Palace
Wolves were minutes away from securing a third straight 1-0 win last time out, but a late Newcastle equaliser burst their bubble, though it was another solid defensive display (xG: WOL 0.8 - 0.3 NEW). They are yet to get going in attack though this season (1.02 xGF pg), which is a concern. Crystal Palace picked up a deserved win against Fulham last weekend (xG: FUL 1.0 - 2.7 CRY), with a much better attacking display the reason for the win. Against better defensive teams though, they have struggled greatly, and that is expected to continue at Molineux. Wolves are taken to get back to winning ways (55%), in a typically low-scoring game (60% U2.5, 41% BTTS) - 1-0.
Back the 1-0 @ 6.411/2
City to be unconvincing again
Sheffield United vs Manchester City
Sheffield United gave a good account of themselves at Anfield last time out, losing 2-1 but creating a few decent chances in the game (xG: LIV 2.8 - 1.7 SHU). While they sit second bottom of the table, the Blades sit 15th in our xG table, showing that results haven't fairly reflected their performances so far. Manchester City don't look like their usual selves right now. They appear to be struggling greatly in attack, averaging just 1.51 xGF per game through five games, and now Sergio Aguero is injured once again, leaving them short of options at centre-forward. Defensively they looked good at West Ham (xG: WHU 0.3 - 1.1 MCI), but overall have allowed 1.57 xGA per game this season. Sheff Utd will fancy their chances of causing City problems here, but Pep's side are taken to scrape an unconvincing win (60% MCI), in a high-scoring game (58% O2.5, 55% BTTS) - 1-2.
Back the 1-2 @ 9.417/2
Chelsea to edge to Turf Moor win
Burnley vs Chelsea
Burnley, now with a nearly fully available squad, put in a solid performance on Monday against Tottenham, being unfortunate to come away empty handed (xG: BUR 1.1 - 0.8 TOT). The way in which they stifled Spurs was impressive, and a similar performance here would be welcome and would likely yield at least a point. Chelsea were hugely disappointing from an attacking stand-point at Old Trafford, racking up just 0.3 xGF in 90 minutes from six shots. It was a decent enough defensive display, even if United did create the better opportunities (0.8 xGA), but we are yet to see the balance of attack and defence that would see them in the title conversation. So far this season, Chelsea have created an average of just 1.11 non-pen xGF per game. That number realistically needs to almost double if they are to make their mark this season. I feel as though Frank Lampard will take a more proactive approach in this game, which would likely see them win (51% CHE), with goals more likely than not (54% O2.5, 55% BTTS) - 1-2.
Back the 1-2 @ 9.28/1
Reds to end Hammers run
Liverpool vs West Ham
Liverpool got back to winning ways last Saturday, but they had to work for it against Sheffield United (xG: LIV 2.8 - 1.7 SHU). It was the result that mattered most, but the performance was good too, as the Reds created plenty of chances. West Ham picked up another early season scalp by drawing 1-1 with Manchester City at the London Stadium, with the impressive aspect of the draw being the fact that they limited City to just 1.1 xG. Having beaten Leicester and Wolves, draws with Tottenham and Manchester City have made it an impressive start to the season, and the fact that they sit fourth in our xG table makes it even more impressive. David Moyes' side shouldn't be underestimated here, but this is the ultimate test for West Ham, which Infogol expects them to fail (66% LIV). Goals should flow here (67% O2.5, 60% BTTS) - 2-1.
Back the 2-1 @ 9.617/2
Saints to get a point at Villa Park
Aston Villa vs Southampton
Aston Villa's 100% record was abruptly brought to a halt last Friday, as they were thumped 3-0 by Leeds in a hugely one-sided game (xG: AVL 1.5 - 2.7 LEE). It was one-way traffic after the opening goal was scored, with Leeds racking up 27 shots. That was Villa's worst defensive performance since last season's break, according to xG. They will be looking to get back to their solid best here. After losing their first two matches, Southampton have taken 10 points from their last four matches, including a point at Chelsea and a win over Everton last time out (xG: SOU 0.8 - 0.3 EVE). The way in which they limited Everton was impressive, and they will prove tough to break down once again here. The draw appeals in this game, though the model is giving a small edge to Southampton (38%). Both teams are taken to net (57%) - 1-1.
Back the 1-1 @ 7.613/2
Toffees to scrape narrow win
Newcastle vs Everton
Newcastle put in another smash-and-grab performance at Wolves last time out, with a late free-kick earning them a point (xG: WOL 0.8 - 0.3 NEW). That was the second time they have scored late to get an undeserved result, as their process continues to be disappointing (1.05 xGF, 1.67 xGA per game). Everton suffered their first defeat of the season at Southampton last weekend, in what was an unusually timid attacking performance. That was the first time that the Toffees had failed to create over 1.0 xGF, with their season average 1.84 xGF per game. They are to be without Lucas Digne and Richarlison for this game through suspension, so could well struggle again. Fortunately, they are playing a poor Newcastle team who rarely to create, so the model gives them a 42% chance of winning a low-scoring game (58% U2.5, 48% BTTS) - 0-1.
Back the 0-1 @ 8.615/2
United to inflict another defeat on Arsenal
Manchester United vs Arsenal
The big game of the weekend comes from Old Trafford. These sides are a far cry from the rivalry that encapsulated the footballing world in the early 00's, but we should still be in for an interesting game. Manchester United were left frustrated by a negative Chelsea performance last weekend, as the Blues were happy to take a draw in that game. United were the only team looking like scoring, but Ole Gunnar Solskjaer was also more cautious in his selection, playing both McTominay and Fred, understandably so given the way they defended pre-international break. Arsenal suffered their third defeat of the season at the hands of Leicester (xG: ARS 1.0 - 0.9 LEI), yet again looking toothless in attack. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has failed to score in five league games, with his xG total for the season (0.44) less than what Branislav Ivanovic managed on his West Brom debut (0.55). That is an issue for Mikel Arteta. As a team, the Gunners have averaged 1.23 xGF per game while allowing 1.29 xGA per game, so are still posting a negative process. The model makes Manchester United odds on favourites to win this one (55%), with goals more likely than not (50% O2.5, 51% BTTS) - 2-1.
Back the 2-1 @ 9.89/1
Spurs to keep good run going
Tottenham vs Brighton
Tottenham edged to a 1-0 win over Burnley last Monday, in what was their worst attacking performance of the season to date, based on xG (xG: BUR 1.1 - 0.8 TOT). It was a game of few chances, but a Kane-Son link-up again proved decisive. Their process so far this season has been strong (2.21 xGF, 1.41 xGA per game), but they are winless at home in the Premier League and have struggled to deal with Brighton in recent seasons. The Seagulls continue to frustrate, as they played a strong first half against West Brom before struggling in the second (xG: BHA 0.8 - 0.5 WBA). While they sit 16th in the table through six games, Graham Potter's side sit sixth in our xG table. They have already performed extremely well against Chelsea and Manchester United, and should make life tough for Spurs here. The model thinks that Mourinho's side will get the job done on Sunday (55%), with goals highly-likely (55% O2.5, 55% BTTS) - 2-1.
Back the 2-1 @ 9.28/1
Unsurprising low-scoring six-pointer
Fulham vs West Brom
Fulham and West Brom haven't had the best of starts to the new Premier League season, with both still searching for their first wins of the campaign. These two sides sit bottom of our xG table through gameweek six. Fulham were well beaten by Crystal Palace last time out, once again looking weak defensively (xG: FUL 1.0 - 2.7 CRY). Scott Parker's side have averaged 1.95 xGA per game this season, while creating just 1.12 xGF pg. West Brom earned a point at Brighton thanks to an improved second half display in which they conceded only one shot (0.03 xGA). That's three draws in their last four matches now, with their last three games seeing few chances at either end. Overall, the Baggies underlying numbers are hugely concerning, especially in attack (0.55 xGF pg). These two drew both meetings in last seasons Championship, and a draw looks likely again in a low-scoring game (62% U2.5) - 1-1.
Back the 1-1 @ 7.7
Leeds and Foxes to draw
Leeds vs Leicester
Leeds were mightily impressive against Aston Villa last Friday, bouncing back from defeat to Wolves in style. That 3-0 win was their second-best performance of the season according to xG, their best being against Manchester City. While Bielsa's side do create chances (1.63 xGF per game), defensively they are vulnerable (1.68 xGA per game) due to their crazy press. Leicester bounced back from successive defeats by beating Arsenal at the Emirates last weekend, a game in which they conceded no big chances to the Gunners. That result means they have won all three of their away matches so far, with their defence leading their charge on the road (0.96 xGA per away game). The model thinks Leicester will avoid defeat (67%) in a low scoring game (54% U2.5) - 1-1.
Back the 1-1 @ 7.06/1