Spurs to end Everton's European hopes
Everton v Tottenham
Everton's European hopes look increasingly slim, as wins have deserted Carlo Ancelotti's side. They are winless in four league games, scoring just twice in that time, with their poor underlying numbers having finally caught up to them. Over the last 25 league games, the Toffees have averaged a shocking 1.1 xGF and 1.5 xGA per game.
Tottenham are also looking up at the top six now, following one win in four, with their attacking process stalling and their defensive numbers soaring. They do look vulnerable defensively, but facing a toothless and undermanned Everton, Mourinho's side will fancy their chances of keeping a clean sheet.
Of the two sides, Spurs get the nod in a tight and low-scoring game. At least one team not to score looks a good way in here given the issues highlighted - 0-1.
Hammers to edge another cracker
Newcastle v West Ham
Newcastle were inspired once again by Allan Saint-Maximin last weekend, as his introduction led to a turnaround in their favour at Burnley. That 2-1 win moved them six clear of the bottom three with a game in hand, but the key for the Magpies is that they are creating more and better chances on a regular basis.
However, along with a more ambitious attacking approach comes the propensity to be more vulnerable defensively. Newcastle have allowed over 2.0 xGA in their last two, so are giving up opportunities, something West Ham can exploit.
The Hammers moved to within a point of Leicester by beating the Foxes last weekend in a 3-2 thriller. That was the third straight game in which they had scored three, but also the third in which they conceded two or more. Their underlying process away from home is excellent (1.6 xGF, 1.3 xGA pg), and should have enough to win up North - 1-2.
Back the 1-2 @ 9.89/1
Wolves to go back-to-back
Wolves v Sheffield United
Wolves scored very late to beat Fulham last weekend, ending a five-game winless run. It was more about defence in that contest, but in games prior, Wolves had created decent chances, and this game represents a decent opportunity to open the taps up and let loose.
Sheffield United's miserable season is nearly over, with the Blades relegation soon to be confirmed. They have lost five straight heading into this, and have lost 25 of 31 this season, with issues at both ends costing them greatly.
Away from home this season the Blades have averaged just 0.8 xGF per game, while allowing 2.0 xGA per game, so Wolves look good to register the win (57%) in a typically low-scoring game (55% U2.5) - 2-0.
Arsenal to add to Fulham woes
Arsenal v Fulham
Arsenal had the perfect bounce back game last weekend, thumping Sheffield United 3-0, but the performance of the so-called 'second string' was exciting, racking up 1.8 xGF. While performances can be inconsistent, their process is trending in a positive direction (1.5 xGF, 1.3 xGA pg).
Fulham's defeat to Wolves coupled with Newcastle's win last weekend leaves them six points from safety having played a game more, meaning they are staring down the barrel. Just five wins in 32 games is why they are struggling, as is their underlying process (1.2 xGF, 1.5 xGA pg).
It is must-win territory for Scott Parker's side, but Arsenal have the ability to swat aside the Cottagers (54%) in a controlled manner (52% U2.5) - 2-0.
Back the 2-0 @ 8.88/1
United to win again
Manchester United v Burnley
Manchester United were excellent last weekend against Tottenham, winning 3-1 thanks to a dominant display (xG: TOT 0.9 - 2.0 MUN). They now have a nine-point cushion back to fifth placed Chelsea, while a win here would move them to within eight of Manchester City.
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's side have an excellent xG process at Old Trafford this season (2.0 xGF, 1.3 xGA pg), despite winning just eight of 15 and all of their losses coming at home.
Burnley have won of eight as they head across the M66, and are now just seven points above the relegation zone, though that cushion should prove enough. Sean Dyche's side have been more adventurous in recent weeks, averaging 1.5 xGF per game over their last five matches, so are fancied to notch at Old Trafford in a home win (65%) - 2-1.
Reds to edge to away success
Leeds v Liverpool
Leeds have won three straight following a shock victory at Manchester City last weekend, though based on the quality of chances created in the game, Infogol calculates they had just a 1% chance of collecting the three points (xG: MCI 2.6 - 0.1 LEE).
Defensively, Marcelo Bielsa's side remain vulnerable, allowing an average of 1.8 xGA per game this season, and Liverpool can take advantage of that here, especially given their xG process away from Anfield (2.0 xGF, 1.2 xGA per game).
There is no doubt that the Reds have done their best work on their travels this term, with only City having collected more xPoints on the road. They should be well rested ahead of this game, and are fancied to win at Elland Road (51%), though both teams should net (62%) - 1-2.
Back the 1-2 @ 8.615/2