Premier League Correct Score Tips: Infogol's predictions for every match of GW31

Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp
Jurgen Klopp can see his side get another road win

Sporting Life's Jake Osgathorpe uses Infogol's expected goals (xG) model to predict the likely winners and scorelines of each match as the Premier League returns...

"Liverpool have won all of their last four away from Anfield without conceding, and they have been the best attacking team away from home in the Premier League this season (1.9 xGF pg). "

Another clean sheet for Chelsea

Chelsea v West Brom
Saturday, 12:30

Chelsea remain unbeaten under Thomas Tuchel, and in the Premier League have won six of 10, keeping eight clean sheets in the process. Unsurprisingly, no team has been better defensively since Tuchel took over than the Blues (0.5 xGA pg), but they are yet to click offensively, ranking only eighth best in the league (1.5 xGF pg).

West Brom look all-but relegated and have for some time. The Baggies prop up the league in all major underlying metrics and should struggle to lay a glove on Chelsea in this game, though can avoid a heavy defeat - 2-0.

Back the 2-0 @ 6.05/1

Leeds to go back-to-back

Leeds v Sheffield United
Saturday, 15:00

Leeds snapped a three game winless run by beating relegation threatened Fulham before the international break, but will be pleased to return back to Elland Road, where their process has been strong this season (1.7 xGF, 1.4 xGA pg).

It has been a season to forget for Sheffield United, but they did fight hard in their recent FA Cup defeat to Chelsea, showing encouraging signs. However, away from home they have been woeful this term (0.8 xGF, 1.9 xGA pg), and Leeds should get the win here in typically high-scoring fashion - 2-1.

Back the 2-1 @ 8.415/2

City to get revenge

Leicester v Manchester City
Saturday, 17:30

Leicester were in great form before the break, winning three on the bounce including a 3-1 victory in the FA Cup over Manchester United. Brendan Rodgers has had to adapt due to injuries to key attacking players James Maddison and Harvey Barnes, with former Man City striker Kalechi Iheanacho stepping up (0.6 xG/95).

Manchester City continued in imperious form following defeat in the Manchester derby, winning four straight in all competitions. They will win the title this season, currently sitting 14 points clear with just nine games left, and have been excellent on the road this term (1.9 xGF, 0.8 xGA pg). The visitors are taken to win here, but won't have it their own way against a Leicester team who have started creating more and better chances regularly - 1-2.

Back the 1-2 @ 9.28/1

Reds to continue resurgence

Arsenal v Liverpool
Saturday, 20:00

Arsenal are improving. Despite a crazy performance and result against West Ham, Mikel Arteta has the Gunners heading in the right direction. They have been the sixth best team in the league according to xG, and their process in that time (1.7 xGF, 1.2 xGA pg) is the best seen since Arsene Wenger departed.

Liverpool are in town though, and they looked more like themselves prior to the break, only after Jurgen Klopp finally decided to play players in their right positions. They have won all of their last four away from Anfield without conceding, and they have been the best attacking team away from home in the Premier League this season (1.9 xGF pg).

Arsenal are still vulnerable at the back, and are more than capable of shooting themselves in the foot, while Liverpool are tough to stop in attack, especially with Diogo Jota back fit. An away win is expected in this one, but both should net - 1-2.

Back the 1-2 @ 10.09/1

Burnley to get something at St. Mary's

Southampton v Burnley
Sunday, 12:00

Southampton entered the international break on a high by beating Bournemouth 3-0 and qualifying for the FA Cup semi finals, but their league form has been terrible for months, collecting just four points from a possible 36.

Burnley have been very tough to beat of late as they have pulled clear of the relegation zone, losing just one of eight, while they collected five points from their last three games that included Leicester, Arsenal and Everton. Neither team creates much in terms of chances, with Southampton averaging 1.2 xGF per home game and Burnley averaging 0.9 xGF per away game, so a draw looks the way to go here - 1-1.

Back the 1-1 @ 6.411/2

Spurs to build on Villa performance

Newcastle v Tottenham
Sunday, 14:05

Newcastle are looking over their shoulder in hope of Fulham toiling at the moment, as the Magpies look bereft of ideas. Their 3-0 defeat at Brighton was a shocking display in which they offered next to nothing in attack (xG: BHA 0.9 - 0.1 NEW), and will be desperately hoping that Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin can recover quickly.

Jose Mourinho's side had to bounce back from two terrible performances and did so impressively at Villa Park, cruising to a 2-0 win, with a change in system working for Tottenham. They have been far from consistent away from home this season, but should have enough to get a win against this Newcastle team - 0-2.

Back the 0-2 @ 8.07/1

Villa to add to Fulham woes

Aston Villa v Fulham
Sunday, 16:30

Will Jack Grealish be back for Villa? That is the main question, and if he starts, expect the price about a Villa win to shorten quickly. They are a timid attacking team without him, having averaged 1.1 xGF per game across the seven matches he has missed recently, so their hopes of threatening a decent Fulham defence revolve around the Englishman.

The Cottagers had been extremely tough to beat for some time, but three defeats in their last four have slowed their momentum. While results have been better on the road than at home for Scott Parker's side this season, they are still vulnerable when travelling (1.6 xGA pg) and have shown that they are susceptible in recent weeks. Villa should win this, but narrowly - 1-0.

Back the 1-0 @ 7.413/2

United to squeeze past Brighton

Manchester United v Brighton
Sunday, 19:30

Manchester United are in a strong position as they aim to secure another top four finish, and continue to be hard to beat, heading into this game on a nine-match unbeaten run in the league. While they haven't looked overly convincing in that period, the consistency with which they are playing deserves credit, and their defence is improving (1.0 xGA pg last nine).

Brighton recorded back-to-back wins before the break to put themselves six points clear of the bottom three. They currently occupy fourth spot in Infogol's xG table, showing just how impressive their underlying numbers have been this season, especially their defence. Only Manchester City (0.8 xGA per game) and Chelsea (0.9) have been better defensively than Graham Potter's side (1.1) over the course of the season.

The Seagulls will prove to be tough opponents for Manchester United, but the hosts should edge to a narrow win - 1-0.

Back the 1-0 @ 7.06/1

More home issues for Everton

Everton v Crystal Palace
Monday, 18:00

Everton entered the break on the back of three straight defeats in all competitions, including two at Goodison Park. Their home form is dreadful, having picked up four points from their last seven matches including five defeats. They have been the worst home side since Boxing Day based on expected points, generating just 0.9 xGF per game while allowing 1.4 xGA per game.

Crystal Palace have been uninspiring all season long, but have lost just two of their last nine, keeping three clean sheets in their last four as Roy Hodgson's side have reverted to being tough to beat. Their underlying numbers have been atrocious all season long, but against an Everton team bereft of ideas in attack, I think they can get a result - 0-0.

Back the 0-0 @ 9.28/1

Wolves v West Ham
Monday, 20:15

Wolves have gone back to be tough to beat under Nuno Espirito Santo, losing just two of their eight, with those defeats coming against Man City and Liverpool. They have looked better at the back, allowing fewer chances than they were earlier in the campaign, but they continue to struggle offensively, generating just 1.3 xGF per game over that eight-game span.

West Ham had the three points in the bag after 35 minutes against Arsenal before capitulating, missing a golden opportunity to take a firm grip on a European place. The Hammers have been excellent on the whole though this term, averaging 1.6 xGF and 1.3 xGA per game, but I'm fence sitting here, with a low-scoring draw the way to play - 1-1.

Back the 1-1 @ 7.06/1

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