Premier League Correct Score Tips: Infogol's predictions for every match of GW29

Newcastle's woes compounded

Newcastle v Aston Villa
Friday, 20:00

Newcastle are winless in four after a goalless draw at West Brom, though their performance in that game warranted a defeat (xG: WBA 1.9 - 0.7 NEW). Steve Bruce's side are missing key attacking personnel for this game, and have averaged 1.1 xGF per game this season with them, so more struggles offensively are expected.

Aston Villa's attacking numbers have declined drastically too, coinciding with the absence of Jack Grealish. They have failed to score in three of their last five, but have remained resolute defensively. Villa's away record has been excellent, and they are taken to register the win here (45%), though goals aren't likely (57% U2.5) - 0-1.

Back the 0-1 @ 7.613/2

Another controlled Blues win

Leeds v Chelsea
Saturday, 12:30

Leeds suffered a fourth loss in five games at West Ham on Monday, with that 2-0 defeat the third game in four where they had failed to score. They are still creating the chances though, averaging 1.7 xGF per game in that most recent four. However, they face a stubborn defence here.

Chelsea's win over Everton was impressive, and extended their unbeaten league run to nine matches, keeping clean sheets in seven of those. Defence has been the main reason for their unbeaten run, with no team creating more than 1.0 xG in any of their nine matches, as the Blues have allowed a sensational 0.5 xGA per game since Tuchel took over. An away win is expected (54%), and another low-scoring one - 0-2.

Back the 0-2 @ 9.617/2

Baggies in another goalless draw

Crystal Palace v West Brom
Saturday, 15:00

Crystal Palace were thumped 4-1 by Spurs last weekend, another game in which they offered extremely little in attack, even after Wilfried Zaha was introduced (xG: TOT 2.3 - 0.7 CRY). That was the 14th time in 15 league games that Hodgson's side had created less than 1.0 xG. In that period, Palace sit bottom of our xG table based on expected points, and have ranked as the worst attacking team in the division, averaging just 0.6 xGF per game.

West Brom remain in serious trouble after only drawing with Newcastle, though they were unfortunate not to win that game (xG: WBA 1.9 - 0.7 NEW). They are eight points from safety with 10 games left, but the positives are that they have won the xG battle in four of their last five. The Baggies are improving, and can get another point here in a game that is likely to be very low-scoring (65% U2.5) - 0-0.

Back the 0-0 @ 8.27/1

Toffees to bounce back with narrow win

Everton v Burnley
Saturday, 17:30

Everton's three-game winning streak was brought to an abrupt end on Monday, as they were well-beaten by Chelsea after a tame display (xG: CHE 2.8 - 0.3 EVE). Despite boasting some excellent attacking talent, the Toffees have really struggled in to create chances of late, averaging 0.9 xGF per game in their last 14 league matches.

Burnley are winless in five heading into this one, but have lost just one of those, although that sole defeat was their only away game in that time. On the road this season, Sean Dyche's side have been poor, with their process showing that they are vulnerable on their travels (0.9 xGF, 1.7 xGA pg). Everton are taken to win (44%), though another low-scoring Toffees game is likely (60% U2.5) - 1-0.

Back the 1-0 @ 7.613/2

City to ease past Cottagers

Fulham v Manchester City
Saturday, 20:00

Fulham's win over Liverpool moved them level on points with Brighton, and that victory at Anfield was fully deserved (xG: LIV 0.98 - 1.63 FUL). The Cottagers have lost just one of their last seven, winning three, so are in good form, but they have struggled at home this season, averaging 1.1 xGF and 1.6 xGA per game this term.

Manchester City bounced back from derby defeat with a 5-2 victory over Southampton in midweek, with Pep's side finding their scoring boots. That was their 22nd win in 23 games, and they moved 14 points clear at the summit with that win. Defensively they have been excellent this season, even away from home (0.8 xGA pg), so can keep Fulham at bay here in a routine win (68%) - 0-2.

Back the 0-2 @ 6.611/2

St. Mary's the scene for cagey draw

Southampton v Brighton
Sunday, 12:00

Southampton gave a decent account of themselves at the Etihad on Wednesday, but still slumped to an eighth win in 10 league games. Attacking struggles have been an issue for the Saints, with their attacking process only the sixth best in the division (1.1 xGF pg).

Brighton are winless in five league games heading into this after a 2-1 loss against Leicester. As mentioned numerous times on this column, the Seagulls are much better than their league position of 17th suggests, occupying fifth in Infogol's xG table with a stellar process (1.6 xGF, 1.1 xGA pg). Four of Brighton's five league wins have come on the road this term, though fence sitting may be the best option here, with both teams netting (53%).

Back the 1-1 @ 7.26/1

Foxes to beat sorry Blades

Leicester v Sheffield United
Sunday, 14:00

Leicester turned things around against Brighton last weekend to earn a 2-1 win and maintain their position of third in the table, but their home form has been concerning. The Foxes have won six and lost six of their 13 games at the KP, with their xG process at home ranking as the 13th best in the league (1.5 xGF, 1.5 xGA pg).

Now 12-point from safety, Sheffield United look doomed, and their performance last week was that of a team resigned to their fate (xG: SHU 0.9 - 2.1 SOU). They were missing many players, but they struggled greatly against Southampton. Away from home they have been terrible (0.9 xGF, 1.7 xGA pg), and are yet to keep a clean sheet on the road, something that shouldn't start in this game. Leicester should win (59%) comfortably - 2-0.

Back the 2-0 @ 7.613/2

All-square in NLD

Arsenal v Tottenham
Sunday, 16:30

Arsenal performed well last week against Burnley, creating plenty of opportunities but failing to take them (xG: BUR 1.1 - 2.9 ARS). That followed a 2.2 xGF performance against Leicester, and a 2.2 performance at home to Leeds - in between those two was a disappointing display against Man City. They look to have found a formula and a balance in their team of late, but they will have to be wary of what Spurs can offer, with the Gunners being extremely naïve in the reverse game.

Tottenham themselves have also turned a corner in attack of late, putting four past Burnley and Crystal Palace in the league, with the front three of Bale-Kane-Son now regular starters and extremely dangerous. In their last four league games they have averaged 2.0 xGF per game, and it will be interesting to see if Jose Mourinho sets Tottenham up to attack again here. I think not, with both sides wary of the other, meaning they could cancel eachother out. A low-scoring draw looks the way to go here - 1-1.

Back the 1-1 @ 7.06/1

United to edge past top-four chasing Hammers

Manchester United v West Ham
Sunday, 19:15

Manchester United were simply excellent last weekend in the Manchester derby, winning 2-0 at the Etihad to extend their unbeaten league run to eight matches. They are playing very consistently, being tough to create against, shown by the fact that they have kept five clean sheets in that eight-game run. Their process at Old Trafford has been strong this term too (2.0 xGF, 1.3 xGA pg).

West Ham's win over Leeds means they remain just two points off the top four, and only six points behind Manchester United with a game in hand, making this an excellent chance for them to drag United towards them. The Hammers have been excellent all season, and especially on the road (1.7 xGF, 1.2 xGA pg), so will fancy their chances of getting something. The Infogol model though, thinks a home win is the way to go (56%) in a high-scoring game (53%) with both teams netting (53%) - 2-1.

Back the 2-1 @ 9.89/1

Away comforts for Liverpool

Wolves v Liverpool
Monday, 20:00

Wolves squandered numerous chances in their goalless draw with Aston Villa, with Romain Saiss missing an open net as Nuno's side racked up 2.0 xG. Nonetheless, they have lost just one of their last seven league games (vs Man City), though in that time they have allowed 1.7 xGA per game.

Liverpool's collapse continued last weekend, as they were beaten 1-0 at home to Fulham, their sixth straight loss at Anfield. Of their last seven, they have won one and lost six, with that sole victory coming against bottom side Sheffield United. While scoring goals and creating chances has been an issue for Jurgen Klopp's side at home, away from home they have had no such issues, having averaged 2.3 xGF per game in their last five road games. The Reds are expected to win at Molineux (46%), while holding Wolves at bay - 0-2.

Back the 0-2 @ 9.28/1