Premier League Correct Score Predictor with Infogol: Tips for every fixture of GW1

Jack Grealish Manchester City
Jack Grealish could make his Premier League bow for Manchester City on Sunday

Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides Premier League result and scoreline predictions for the opening weekend of the season...

"Manchester City's title defence begins at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, one of two away grounds where they suffered defeat last season."

Arsenal to ruin Brentford's opening night

Brentford v Arsenal
Friday, 20:00
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Arsenal finished last season very strongly, winning their last five league games, albeit with a little good fortune along the way. Mikel Arteta's side will be keen to pick up where they left off against newly-promoted Brentford, and the Gunners' away xGA of 1.13 last season - the third-best in the entire Premier League - suggests the home side may have to work hard to overcome a defence boosted by the big-money addition of Ben White.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? No
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 0-2 @ 11.0010/1

Man Utd to make early statement

Manchester United v Leeds United
Saturday, 12:30
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Manchester United slightly overperformed their home xGF last term, scoring 38 times from 34.3 xG, but Leeds had an even greater discrepancy between away xGA (40.2) and goals conceded (33). Infogol backs the hosts to take the points at Old Trafford, with marquee summer signing Jadon Sancho in contention to play a part, though we might not see as many goals as the start of last season when Leeds played out a seven-goal thriller at Anfield.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 9.4017/2

Brighton to show Burnley the size of their task

Burnley v Brighton & Hove Albion
Saturday, 15:00
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Turf Moor hosts a match-up between two of the quieter sides in the summer transfer market, and two sides whose proximity in last season's table belied their respective performances. Infogol's xG table put Brighton in the top six last term, rather than the bottom six, and the model has them taking the points against a Burnley side whose squad may need reinforcements before the transfer window shuts.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 0-2 @ 12.50

Vieira to endure tough start at Palace

Chelsea v Crystal Palace
Saturday, 15:00
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Patrick Vieira might have wanted an easier start to life as Crystal Palace manager, but instead he's up against a Chelsea side who beat the Eagles 4-0 last term. The hosts averaged just 0.89 xGA per game at Stamford Bridge last season, and have since enjoyed a first pre-season campaign under Thomas Tuchel after the German led them to Champions League glory, so Infogol's model is going big on the home win.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 3-0 @ 8.4015/2

Benitez to get off to winning start

Everton v Southampton
Saturday, 15:00
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Rafa Benitez hasn't been able to strengthen a great deal since taking over from Carlo Ancelotti, but his Everton side should still have enough for a Southampton outfit which might need a bit more time to react to the loss of Danny Ings. Infogol makes the hosts 50% favourites against a Saints side which averaged 1.76 xGA per game across its last six of the 2020-21 campaign and took just 14 points from their last 21 games.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-0 @ 10.5019/2 or the 2-1 @ 9.6017/2

Lucas Digne 1280 Werder Bremen v Everton.jpg

Leicester to begin latest top-four push with a win

Leicester City v Wolverhampton Wanderers
Saturday, 15:00
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The last time Leicester City hosted Wolves in the Premier League, a win to nil put the Foxes top of the table. Brendan Rodgers' side ultimately ended the season in fifth after falling away towards the end of the campaign, but Infogol expects them to get the better of a Wolves side who are welcoming back Raúl Jiménez after the Mexican striker spent most of last season on the sidelines.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-0 @ 8.6015/2

Villa to impress in first game of post-Grealish era

Watford v Aston Villa
Saturday, 15:00
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There has been plenty of player movement at Villa Park over the summer, not least Jack Grealish's big-money move to Manchester City, and Dean Smith will want to show his team has reinvested the windfall well. Newly-promoted Watford have also had a busy window, but a visiting side coming off victories over Tottenham and Chelsea at the end of last season will fancy their chances and Infogol gives the Villans a 46% chance of victory.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 0-2 @ 13.0012/1 or the 1-2 @ 10.5019/2

Liverpool to enjoy fast start at Carrow Road

Norwich City v Liverpool
Saturday, 17:30
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Norwich's last Premier League campaign began with a defeat against Liverpool, and Infogol's model anticipates a similar outcome this time around. The visitors have a strong back-line once again, having moved past last season's central defensive woes, and they're 68% favourites to begin with a win after 16 points from their last six games last season - with an average of 2.66 xGF per game - secured a top-four berth.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Yes
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 0-3 @ 10.009/1

West Ham to get revenge over Newcastle

Newcastle United v West Ham United
Sunday, 14:00
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Newcastle were a bit of a bogey team for West Ham last season, beating the London side twice to help deny them an unlikely top-four berth, but Infogol makes the visitors narrow favourites to get one over Steve Bruce's men. The outcome may rest on whether Joe Willock - who scored the winner in this fixture last term - completes his likely move from Arsenal in time to feature for the hosts.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 10.009/1 or the 1-1 @ 7.6013/2

City to make winning start to title defence

Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester City
Sunday, 16:30
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Manchester City's title defence begins at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, one of two away grounds where they suffered defeat last season. However, with Spurs in worse shape than at that point last season, and with Pep Guardiola's mending Jack Grealish to an already impressive squad, Infogol expects Nuno Espírito Santo to begin his firs season in north London with a defeat.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 0-2 at 8.6015/2

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