Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides La Liga result and scoreline predictions as two former league leaders meet in Madrid...
"Real Madrid and Real Sociedad have both topped the table this season, but the reigning champions now sit a full 11 points ahead of their opponents after mixed fortunes around the turn of the year."
Levante to build on surprise Atléti win
Few anticipated Levante picking up four points from their Atlético Madrid double-header, but they achieved the unexpected and now have some momentum ahead of the visit of Athletic. Paco López's side have lost just one of their last 13 in league and cup, and Infogol gives them a narrow advantage as they attempt to avenge the 2-0 loss they suffered at San Mamés in the autumn.
Eibar to earn home win in relegation six-pointer
Relegation battles don't come much closer than this, with 17th place Eibar one of three teams on 21 points and Huesca just two behind. An away win would be enough to lift Pacheta's team off the bottom, but an away average of 1.66 xGA has contributed to the league's worst points record on the road, and the home side can dig themselves out of trouble after a run of results which betray some decent chance creation and relative defensive solidity.
Barcelona to put the brakes on Sevilla's forward momentum
While this season's narrative has been one of Sevilla and Atléti upsetting the apple cart and putting the 'big two' in their place, Barça's league displays have been more impressive than their place in the table suggests. With Ronald Koeman's side all but out of Europe, they'll be keen to pick up the win they need to stay above Saturday's opponents, and Infogol gives them a slight edge despite the hosts' solid home form of just 1.04 xGA per game.
Embattled Osasuna to sneak important away win
Osasuna are out of immediate danger, but not out of the woods just yet with the gap to the bottom three standing at four points. A win at Mendizorrotza would help, and Infogol makes the visitors narrow favourites against an Alavés side which averaged 2.46 xGA across two heavy defeats in their last two games. The reverse fixture ended all-square despite Osasuna playing most of the game with 10 men, and Jagoba Arrasate will be hopeful of a second straight away victory.
Getafe to snap losing streak against poor travellers Valencia
Getafe can't have too many complaints about recent results, having averaged just 0.29 xGF per game across their last five matches and failing to score any actual goals in any of the five. However, this weekend sees them host a Valencia side with just one away win in 10, and Javi Gracia's poor travellers are the ideal opponent against whom the struggling hosts can return to winning ways, with Infogol expecting them to edge a low-scoring game.
Celta to stay solid at home
Celta have lost just once at Balaídos since Eduardo Coudet took over as manager in mid-November, and that run should continue at home to a Valladolid side whose 0.8 xGF per game is the second-lowest in all of La Liga. Coudet's predecessor Óscar García could only manage a goalless draw in the corresponding game last term, but Celta's 2.02 xGF on home soil can make this a comfortable one, according to infogol.
Betis to edge close game in Cádiz
Cádiz picked up a helpful if unexpected point at Camp Nou last weekend, but a worrying home record - the second worst in the league - could count against them as Betis come to Ramón de Carranza. Infogol gives the visitors a 43% of picking up a second win against Álvaro Cervera's side, with a better than 50:50 chance of both sides finding the net; something which has happened in three of the hosts' last four home games.
Home win to keep Granada in the top half
Having weathered an Eibar storm to take an important three points last weekend, Elche could be as high as 16th by Sunday evening. Infogol doesn't expect this to happen, though, with the numbers pointing to a seventh home win of the season for a Granada side who won at Martínez Valero in December and can point to their opponents' average of 2.16 xGA across their last three away games.
Atléti to get back on track in title pursuit
Defeat to Chelsea in the Champions League made it three games without a win for Atlético Madrid, the first time this has happened in more than 12 months, so the league leaders might be getting a little nervous. Diego Simeone's side still have a cushion at the top, but a trip to Villarreal will need them to call upon all the excellence which has brought a league-best 0.98 xGA away from home. Infogol's model backs the side from the capital, but it's unlikely to be easy.
Madrid to triumph in battle of high-flyers
Real Madrid and Real Sociedad have both topped the table this season, but the reigning champions now sit a full 11 points ahead of their opponents after mixed fortunes around the turn of the year. The visitors are coming off three straight wins, with forward Alexander Isak scoring nine times in his last six outings, but Infogol's model believes the hosts can silence their opponents and all but end La Real's Champions League hopes.