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Back goals in League 1 and Bundesliga
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Mbappe and co. great value in Ligue 1
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Three-fold comes to 7/52.40
From Sixfields Stadium to the Red Bull Arena, I have been scouring the Saturday slate across a wide range of leagues to land on this value treble.
Leg 1 - Northampton Town v Bristol Rovers
Tip: Both teams to score
These two teams have very similar trajectories and similar issues which should lead to goals in this match.
Taking the last five matches into consideration, Northampton are averaging around 1.8 xG against, which is one of the poorest xG against totals in the league in that timeframe. It also means that their total xG per match in this recent period is around 2.8, again a very high total for the league.
The actual goals data is also very compelling for this bet when observing Northampton's recent record. Early in the season, Jon Brady was quite circumspect in approach, doing well at keeping games fairly tight, but seven of Northampton's last ten matches have seen both teams score with an average of 4.2 goals per match in their last five played in League One.
Bristol Rovers have been a long term BTTS selection in League One. Matt Taylor has failed to arrest the issues at the back for the Gas. They have kept one clean sheet in 20 matches in all competitions, and it came at goal-shy Exeter.
Their most recent couple of matches have been rollercoasters .They went 2-0 down in both before mounting comebacks. The 3-2 victory at Stevenage last time out should create a positive outlook amongst the Rovers players to give them confidence to score again at Northampton.
Again though, it seems unlikely that they will find a way to keep the back door closed. They sit alongside Northampton in averaging over 1.5 xG against per game so all signs point to both teams getting chances.
Leg 2 - RB Leipzig v Borussia Monchengladbach
Tip: Over 2.5 goals
A goal-fest looks set to be in-store when Leipzig welcome Monchengladbach to the Red Bull Arena.
Leipzig's games have seen an average of 3.52 goals per game this campaign. The hosts have looked dangerous going forward at home, scoring an average of 2.55 goals per match.
An abundance of goals have been scored across Monchengladbach's away trips this season, with an average of 4.5 goals per game.
The visitors have the fifth-best away attacking output in the league, scoring an average of 1.9 goals per away match. However, Gerardo Seoane will be disappointed with the fact that his side have the worst away defensive record in the league.
Both sides have demonstrated their attacking capabilities this season, and both, particularly Gladbach, have been far from perfect defensively. Everything points towards at least three goals flying in here.
Leg 3 - Nantes v Paris Saint-Germain
Tip: Back PSG to win
PSG are excellent odds to beat Nantes in Ligue 1 on Saturday evening at 1.444/9.
Nantes have lost their last four home matches without facing particularly strong opponents in that time. Relegation-threatened Clermont, Ligue 2 side Laval and a Lens side that does not travel well are among the teams to have overcome Jocelyn Gourvennec's men in that period.
Some recent improvement has come off the back of Mostafa Mohamed's return from AFCON duty with Egypt. But Nantes will be depleted by injuries in their defence for this match and that spells trouble against a PSG side that is laced with dangerous offensive players.
Les Parisiens, meanwhile, have won nine of their last 10 matches in all competitions as well as seven of their 10 away matches in Ligue 1. On Wednesday, they overcame Real Sociedad 2-0 in the Champions League, and even if the performance was not the most fluid, the individual talent that flows through this side should be sufficient to overcome Nantes.
PSG have won their last four matches against Nantes, scoring 13 goals in the process, including a 2-1 success in early December.
Home boss Gourvennec has lost 13 of his 17 career matches against PSG. The league leaders offer strong value to take the points at Stade de la Beaujoire on Saturday.
Reading on Desktop? Back Andy's three-fold here.
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