Everton v Wolves: More turgid stuff at Goodison

Everton v Wolves
Wednesday 19 May, 18:00
Live on Sky Sports

Problems at home for Everton

It was an all too familiar tale for Everton against Sheffield United on Sunday. Following a decent return of four points from two away games, they returned to Goodison Park and put in a terrible performance to lose 1-0 to Sheffield United.

Its was their ninth home defeat in 18 at Goodison this term, and they only won five of the other nine. The Toffees have actually scored as many goals on the road as they have at home, but with 28 conceded on Merseyside, they have a much inferior home record.

European football appears to be off the table for Carlo Ancelotti's men now, and with a trip to the Etihad to come, this could be their last opportunity for three points.

As for the team news, Ancelotti pretty much has his first team to pick from, so it will be interesting to see how many changes he makes from Sunday's debacle.

Wolves looking to reset

The season can't come to an end soon enough for Wolves, and it is perhaps a slight credit to them that they have managed to hover around mid-table for pretty much all of the campaign.

Nuno Espírito Santo lost Diogo Jota in the summer, and he has had to cope without the services of Raul Jimenez for most of the year too. Jonny has only managed seven games too.

On Sunday they were beaten 2-0 at Spurs, and it could have been worse if Conor Coady wasn't on his 'A' game. Prior to that they beat Brighton 2-1, but it's worth remembering that the Seagulls were 1-0 up when Lewis Dunk was sent off.

Given his threadbare squad, I expect a similar line-up to the one that played in North London.

Match Odds very trappy

The hosts are trading at just below even money at 1.9420/21, with the draw next in at 3.7511/4 and the visitors at 4.57/2.

To be perfectly honest, I have no interest in touching this market with a bargepole. I am half tempted to lay Everton, given that their home win percentage is a mere 28%, however Wolves aren't a team to have any faith in really.

The clincher though for a no bet, is that there will be home fans in the ground, and that could give the Toffees a boost. Still, 1.9420/21 is not a betting price.

Low-scorer expected at Goodison

The Over/Under 2.5 Goal Market does offer a decent opportunity though, as two goals or fewer looks like a bit of a certainty to me.

It is currently trading at around the 1.84/5 mark on the Betfair Exchange, and with Wolves averaging less than a goal a game away from Molineux, I doubt that they will be able to take advantage of Everton's poor home defensive record.

It is also worth noting that while the hosts have scored 23 home goals this term, nine of those came in their opening two fixtures. Since then, it's been either one goal or no goal in 13 of their 16.

Bet Builder

Obviously I am swerving the match odds in my Bet Builder but the first selection is the above Under 2.5 Goals.

Ruben Neves has had 16 shots on target this season, and with Everton struggling at home, he should get some opportunities to pull the trigger on Wednesday.

Finally, despite their struggles, Wolves are actually eighth in the corner stats this year, with Everton down in 17th. On that basis, I will include Wolves +1 Corner on the Corner Handicap.

The above comes to 8.979/10, and that looks good to me.