We are down to the final four in the Europa League and Jake Osgathorpe uses expected goals (xG) to assess the likely winners and scorelines of both semi-finals...
"The Infogol model makes United narrow favourites to progress (51%) from the tie, but can’t split the teams in the 90 minutes, giving both United and Sevilla a 36% chance of winning the match."
Extra-time needed between evenly matched sides
Sevilla vs Manchester United
Sevilla edged into the semi-finals after a 1-0 win over Wolves (xG: WOL 1.2 - 1.6 SEV), a game in which they conceded an early penalty before looking completely assured defensively, allowing just 0.4 non-pen xG.
The Europa League specialists have, unsurprisingly, been impressive in the competition this season, boasting a solid underlying process of 2.1 xGF and 0.7 xGA per game.
Julen Lopetegui's side are now unbeaten in 19 games in all competitions, with their last defeat coming in early February, keeping 11 clean sheets in that run. They really are playing like an elite European team.
Manchester United needed extra-time to get past Kobenhavn, but they ultimately deserved to. They struggled to create in normal time of that game (1.0 xGF), but simply blew Copenhagen away in the first half of extra time, winning the xG battle in the first ET period 2.1 - 0.0.
Like Sevilla, they too have impressed throughout the UEL, boasting a very similar process to that of their Spanish opponents (2.2 xGF, 0.8 xGA pg).
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's side will have to play better than they did against Copenhagen if they are to progress to the final, though they have been an exceptionally hard team to beat since late January, losing just once in 24 games in all competitions (vs CHE in FA Cup).
The Infogol model makes United narrow favourites to progress (51%) from the tie, but can't split the teams in the 90 minutes, giving both United and Sevilla a 36% chance of winning the match.
Given the firepower on show in this game from both teams, the model makes it more likely than not that both sides will net (51% BTTS), though under 2.5 goals is favoured (45% O2.5). Given we can't split the two, I'm sitting on the fence - 1-1.
Back the 1-1 @ [6.8]
Inter to make the final in 90 minutes
Inter Milan vs Shakhtar Donetsk
Inter were mightily impressive in their quarter-final against Leverkusen, dominating from start to finish and winning the xG battle in extremely convincing style (xG: INT 3.0 - 0.7 B04).
They are into favouritism to win the UEL on the back of that win, and the Infogol model agrees that they should be favs (33%), mainly due to this being a more one-sided semi-final on paper.
Antonio Conte's side have been excellent since dropping into the Europa League (2.2 xGF, 0.9 xGA pg) from the Champions League, and that should continue in this game.
Romelu Lukaku has been unplayable in their first two games of the UEL restart, and will be difficult for Shakhtar to contain, he's [4.33] to score first on the Sportsbook.
Shakhtar made light work of Basel, winning 4-1 on the night thanks to a clinical display, netting three non-penalty goals from chances equating to 1.2 non-pen xGF.
Nonetheless, it was a dominant display, allowing just 0.6 xGA up until the 92nd minute, so they can't be totally dismissed in this tie following two really dominant wins since the UEL restart.
However, in their five games since dropping into the UEL, while they have knocked out some decent sides, they have averaged 1.8 xGF and 1.5 xGA per game, by far the worst underlying numbers of the remaining four teams.
The model gives Inter a 71% chance of progressing to the final, and a 64% chance of winning this game in 90 minutes. Goals are likely given the attacking styles the sides opt to play (75% O2.5, 68% BTTS) - 2-1.
Back the 2-1 @ [8.6]
For more information on Infogol, visit infogol.net
Infogol's 19/20 Correct Score P+L
Sevilla vs Manchester United: Back the 1-1 @ [6.8]
Inter Milan vs Shakhtar Donetsk: Back the 2-1 @ [8.6]