Football Tips

Copa Libertadores Tips: Home advantage key across the board

  • Nathan Joyes
  • Published on
  • Updated on
  • 2:00 min read
Hulk playing in the Copa Libertadores
Hulk returns to the squad after recovering from Covid.

South American expert Nathan Joyes analyses four second leg ties in the Copa Libertadores qualifiers, where he's backing the vast majority of home teams to progress to the final round.

  • Cerro Porteno prioritise the Libertadores

  • Huracan to breeze past Boston

  • Atletico to dominate in Brazil

  • Altitude to help Always Ready


Paraguayans to progress

Cerro Porteno v Curico Unido
Tuesday, 22:00

Cerro Porteno dominated the first leg, but only managed to come away with a 1-0 victory.

The Paraguayans limited their opponents to a single shot on target, while firing 18 shots of their own, before an 89th minute corner was headed home by Patino Martinez.

Argentine head coach Facundo Sava knows the tie isn't done and dusted. He made the decision to rest seven of his players which started against Curico Unido in their domestic match against Resistencia.

Back on home soil, expect Cerro Porteno to pick up where they left in Chile and look for an early goal to effectively kill the tie.

The Chilean club showed little in front of their own fans, and look set to whimper out of the qualifiers on Tuesday evening.

Back Cerro Porteno to win to nil

2.0

No way through for Boston

Huracan v Boston River
Wednesday, 22:00

Uruguayan outfit Boston River were able to frustrate Huracan at home last week, but in Argentina, it should be a different story.

At home, the Argentinian club have been prolific, winning their last seven on the bounce.

In those matches, Huracan have kept three clean sheets and scored 18 goals - only failing to score more than once on one occasion.

Boston River have only managed two wins in their last six matches - which were both ties against Venezuelan club Zamora - who had previously lost 19 of their 20 Libertadores matches.

They've lost three of their four domestic matches, failing to score in three of those.

The home side have an exciting 18-year-old striker in Juan Gauto who may lead the line. However, 23-year-old Nicolas Cordero has scored three goals in five games in 2023 and will also be eager to impress.

Back Huracan to win and over 1.5 match goals

1.70

Hulk returns to get Atletico back on track

Atletico MG v Carabobo
Thursday, 00:30

The Brazilians left Venezuela last week with a disappointing 0-0 draw. Despite having 80% possession and 20 shots, Atletico struggled without their star man, Hulk.

The 36-year-old missed out due to testing positive for Covid, but is expected to be back in the frame for this all important second leg.

Last year's club top goalscorer has already found the net seven times this season in just six matches and he's continuing to prove that age is just a number.

With Hulk back in the squad, and the Brazilians at home, it isn't hard to see why they are such short priced favourites. Expect Atletico to entertain the home crowd.

Carabobo have only played three Libertadores matches away from home, and have failed to score in any of them, let alone win or draw.

Back Atletico -1 Handicap & over 2.5

1.75

Always Ready set for tough battle

Always Ready v Magallanes
Thursday, 22:00

Wilfried Bony's debut, (yes, that's right), didn't quite go to plan as Chilean club Magallanes won the first leg 3-0.

Two late goals have made this second leg extremely hard work for the Bolivians, who will need to score at least three goals in order to take this game to extra-time.

However, if there's any team which can turn a game on its head, it's Always Ready.

The Bolivian team play over 3,500 metres above sea level, and the high altitude is a nightmare for away teams to handle.

Magallanes play at high altitude themselves at around 2,000m, but this is another level, and with the Bolivians expected to play with a high tempo and press, there's no room for error.

An early goal for the home side will make this encounter very interesting, and it wouldn't be very Bolivian for Always Ready to bow out without scoring at home.

Back Always Ready and over 1.5 match goals

1.65

Nathan's Copa Libertadores P/L

2023: Staked: 2pt Returned: 2pts 2022: Overall P/L: +19.18pts

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