Copa Libertadores Tips: 13/1 tip as bad week beckons for Bolivians

Nathan Joyes
16 May 2022
3:00 min read

Independiente Petrolero lost 8-1 in their only away match to date

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Nathan Joyes landed two winners in the last round of fixtures and he's off to Venezuela where all five of his selections take place...

"Call me mad, but Independiente Petrolero may just be the worst Copa Libertadores team I have witnessed in recent years, and although there Tachira have endured a poor campaign compared to last year’s, there’s an opportunity here for a big win."

With a break in between game weeks, I found the opportunity to pencil in two antepost goalscorer bets which you can read here.

Now, lets turn our attention to our trip to Venezuela.

The Strongest to draw a blank once more

Caracas v The Strongest
Tuesday, 23:15

A record breaking 5-0 victory for The Strongest last time out against Brazil's Athletico PR was the biggest win by any Bolivian side in Copa Libertadores history. Four headed goals, as well as an own goal embarrassed the Brazilians who have been bitterly disappointing in what is a rather weak group.

Caracas, on the other hand, have slowly been going about their business in Group B, notching up five points after four matches, leaving them only behind The Strongest on goal difference.

The Venezuelans are yet to concede at home and have been nothing short of professional and defensively sound so far in this competition, drawing 0-0 with Athletico PR before beating current group leaders Libertad 1-0.

Their defence starts with their attacking line, who press high and look to force mistakes on their opponents, which has happened ion several occasions across both home ties. They have faced 13 shots on target against Libertad and Athletico at home, but Caracas' experienced goalkeeper, Alain Baroja, has put in two excellent shifts with several important saves.

The Strongest have only played Athletico PR away in this year's tournament, losing 1-0, but their chances were very limited. They only had four shots within the 90 minutes, and only tested the goalkeeper on one occasion.

This was the seventh straight Copa Libertadores match away from in which The Strongest have failed to score. They are well and truly a different beast out of Bolivia and with Caracas already being able to hold far stronger opponent son home soil, they'll be desperate to keep a third straight clean sheet in front of their own fans.

Both teams to score no at @ 1.9520/21 is very much worth a one-point stake in this crucial encounter.

More misery for travelling Petrolero

Deportivo Tachira v Independiente Petrolero
Thursday, 01:00

It's been a nightmare debut campaign for Independiente Petrolero, and while many would have anticipated the Bolivians to struggle, a solitary point after four matches as well as conceding sixteen goals is about as bleak as it could be at this stage.

Deportivo Tachira, on the other hand, have an opportunity to pile the pressure on Emelec for second spot in what is a must win game for the Venezuelans.

Sitting just one point behind Emelec, who travel to current champions Palmeiras, a win could potentially put them two points clear of third spot and with a trip to Brazil themselves in the final week.

This does appear to be the Venezuelans last opportunity for points.

However, a bonus for Tachira is that they just turned Petrolero over 2-1 in their own back yard and back on home soil in front of their own fans, they'll be in a confident mood.

Now, the Bolivians have conceded some poor goals during their last four Copa Libertadores matches, but Tachira's opening goal summed up Petrolero's campaign altogether, where a simple long ball wasn't dealt with and an embarrassing mix up at the back allowed the ball to simply roll into the back of the net.

Tachira's second, and eventual match winner, was slightly more well-constructed, where a ball crossed into the box was neatly put away with a composed finish by Simisterra. However, he was left totally unmarked and once again, the Bolivians switched off.

The Venezuelans, despite not coping with Palmeiras and Emelec, know how to get a job done at home over Bolivian teams. Tachira hammered Always Ready 7-2 last year, (in an empty stadium due to Covid), when they needed both goals and points, and they are in a similar situation here, so I'm recommending a two-point bet on Deportivo Tachira and over 1.5 match goals at 2.01/1.

I also can't let over 2.5 match goals unbacked, having landed in seven out of the eight matches these teams have contested in so far. I will have a one-point stake at 1.804/5.

Call me mad, but Independiente Petrolero may just be the worst Copa Libertadores team I have witnessed in recent years, and although there Tachira have endured a poor campaign compared to last year's, there's an opportunity here for a big win.

This is why I'm also backing Tachira to win by exactly three goals at 8.07/1 as well as four goals or more at 14.013/1 with small 0.5-point stakes.

Good luck to those who follow.

You can follow @NathanJoyes1 on Twitter here.