Man Utd v Man City Tips: History hints at 15/4 draw and late goals in Charity Shield

• High volume of draws in Community Shield

• Late goals so often feature in Wembley curtain-raiser

• Back Rashford to score for Man Utd against Man City at 3/14.00

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The Manchester derby is set to grace Wembley once again as the Premier League winners and the FA Cup winners so battle ahead of the 2024/25 season, and what better way to celebrate the return of domestic football than with a Betfair SuperBoost!

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Haaland has loved playing in these matches since joining City, having been involved in nine goals in six appearances against Manchester United, scoring six and assisting three more.

He is also one of few players who enjoyed a fairly quiet summer, and after a full pre-season with nine goals in six games since the FA Cup final (including games for Norway in June), he should be raring to go in the curtain raiser. Back the SuperBoost below!

*this is not a tip, but a promotion of a Betfair SuperBoost

Here we are then, with a new season upon us, preceded as always by the curtain-raiser that divides the nation, this time with Premier League champions Manchester City playing FA Cup winners Manchester United.

There are those who believe the Community Shield is a genuine title and silverware worth winning. Others, meanwhile, insist it is a meaningless friendly, its sole aim to get some minutes into players' legs.

Let's leave that debate well alone. Like Brexit or whether Michael McIntyre is funny it's a difference of opinion that will never be resolved.

Instead, let's focus on something we can all agree on, that this fixture is unique in so many ways.

Because by acknowledging this we can study the patterns from previous Community Shields to help us better understand what potentially awaits us at Wembley this weekend.

FA Community Shield often ends in draw

When traversing the last 25 Community Shields what immediately demands attention is the amount of draws there have been, the games settled by penalties.

Since 1999, eight of the contests have ended honours even, and this is far above the norm, equating to 32%. Typically draws occur 22% of the time.

Indeed, should we go back even further, to 1974 when the fixture first moved to Wembley, we find this high percentage is maintained. Is it because teams lack a killer instinct, what with it being their first game back? Moreover, is there a lack of risk-taking required to win out, not to mention absolute desire? Very possibly.

It's worth noting too that 27% of Manchester derbies have historically finished all-square. Again, this is above the average.

Second half goals common in FA Community Shield

Some statistics need to be interpreted, viewed a certain way in order to make sense of them. Others slap you right across the face. Such is the way with the high volume of second-half goals scored in the Community Shield over the last quarter of a century.

At face value, 61.5% of the 65 goals being converted in the second period is not a staggering number. More goals are scored after the break in football and that is typically true of any competition, from World Cups to the EFL Trophy.

But when we dig a little deeper we discover just how often late goals occur in this fixture and that's the Eureka moment.

Since 1999, 32.3% of goals have arrived beyond the 70th minute and what's more, the trend is swiftly accelerating. Eight of the last 10 Community Shield goals have been scored in this time period.

Tiredness must play a part in this, the players not yet in peak condition. A proliferation of subs used, disrupting game-plans late-on is likely another factor.

Cup trumps League in FA Community Shield

Is it merely a quirk that eight of the last 10 winners of this fixture lifted the FA Cup months earlier rather than being crowned league champions? Maybe. Or maybe cup holders tend to have a fraction more motivation to succeed in a contest viewed by league champions as an obligation.

Certainly that was the narrative that played out last year, with Mikel Arteta roundly - and unjustly - mocked for supposedly 'over-celebrating' Arsenal's bettering of Manchester City.

The season before, the Gunners had finished runner-up to City and trophyless elsewhere. Pep Guardiola's men, meanwhile, hoovered up a memorable treble.

One team therefore had something to prove, the other much less so.

And pertinently, similar logic can be applied to last May's FA Cup final, featuring both Manchester giants.

City had won the league six days earlier, whereas United were hell-bent on putting some gloss on an otherwise traumatic campaign.

It would be quite remiss to suggest that City lack drive in any endeavour they undertake. Guardiola would simply not allow that. The fact remains, however, that the Blues have lost three Community Shields on the bounce, and given how rarely they lose, there must be something in that.

Subs make impact in FA Community Shield

From 1999 right up to 2010 no substitutes scored in a Community Shield. Since then 12 have.

As with late goals, the trend is accelerating with coaches now having the luxury of a greater number of subs to throw on. Seven of the last nine scorers have come off the bench.

Looking beyond the non-starters, centre-forwards have repeatedly come to the fore in this fixture, converting exactly a third of the total goals tally.

With Rasmus Hojlund injured, and Joshua Zirkzee not yet ready for action, might Ten Hag deploy Marcus Rashford in that role? If so, it's relevant that the England star has previously slotted home six at City's expense.

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