Championship Playoff Final Tips: Huddersfield heaven as Forest miss the wood for the trees

Stephen Tudor
28 May 2022
3.30 min read

Steve Cooper has transformed the Tricky Trees

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Ste Tudor braces himself for another Hunger Games to play out at Wembley, an event also known as the Championship Playoff Final...

"When Forest was last a top-flight club, B*Witched were blaming it on the weatherman and Furbys were massive. It was a different age."

The fortunes and fantasia that awaits the winner of a Championship Play-Off final routinely makes this fixture a conflicting spectacle.

On the one hand, it is riveting to witness two teams play out a contest that determines heaven or hell. To the victors comes £170m and trips to Anfield and the Emirates next term. For the losers, the prospect of having their best stars plundered as they head to Rotherham on a cold Tuesday evening.

With so much at stake however, this annual Hunger Games played out on Wembley's lush green turf is not only unmissable but also - more often than not - a dull and disappointing affair as FOMO trumps adventure. Caution holds sway, full-backs stay at home, and goals are subsequently kept to a minimum.

This might well be the case again on Sunday even with a side as easy-on-the-eye as Nottingham Forest participating. When Forest was last a top-flight club, B*Witched were blaming it on the weatherman and Furbys were massive. It was a different age.

Twenty-three years and 19 managers later it initially looked like another campaign of struggle was in store until Steve 'Super' Cooper arrived early on and transformed them. Forest have been sublime for the most part in 2021/22.
As for Huddersfield Town they resided in the top-flight as recently as 2019 but frankly no-one expected to see them return for quite some time. Last season, they finished 20th in the Championship.

Yet, bringing in some clever loans and revitalising old heads has worked wonders for Carlos Corberan's collective, while brilliant form since late last year has hardly hurt either.

Neither team deserves to miss out at Wembley. Neither team deserves that heartbreak. And knowing this, we will watch on riveted.

Tricky Trees

When Cooper took the reins eight games in, Forest were rock-bottom having won 4 points from 24. Ever since, they have accrued 1.9 points per game, a ratio that would have seen them promoted had he arrived in the summer.

Typically deployed as a 3-4-1-2, wing-backs Djed Spence and Jack Colback are pushed up high, entrusted to gain possession and so many of Forest's chances and goals this season have been sourced from this strategy. James Garner meanwhile has been consistently excellent in the centre and up front Cooper will be torn between going with Sam Surridge - who started both semi-final legs - or opting for Villa-loanee Kienan Davis who boasts five in 15.

Davis has also been booked once in every three games and this brings up a point of interest.

Although not a dirty side by any means, the Tricky Trees have racked up 90 cautions this term along with three dismissals. If they freeze on the day, expect them to give referee Jon Moss plenty to think about in his last game before retirement.

Take a punt on Davis to be booked @

6.5

Terrific Terriers

Huddersfield are precisely the kind of well-organised, awkward side Forest tend to struggle against. Indeed, the Terriers were the last team to beat them at the City Ground way back in December.

Down the flanks, Sorba Thomas and Harry Toffolo are key while in goal, Lee Nicholls has a legitimate claim to be the best stopper in the division. In attack, Danny Ward has scored 21.9% of his team's league goals this term.

Corberan's men unquestionably head to the capital in the best form of the two, having lost only twice since late November and it's a consistency grounded in fortitude and being hard to beat. At the back they've been breached on just four occasions from April on as their direct rivals began to wilt around them and Huddersfield's sustained ability to eke out clean sheets - 20 all told in 2021/22 - is a crucial consideration in this unique fixture where 13 of the last 20 finals have been won to nil.

Pertinently, 10 of the last 18 offered up under 1.5 goals.

Back the slight outsiders Huddersfield to win to nil @

5.5

Shooting for the top

If the Terriers' defensive parsimony gives the impression they are a conservative side that has become less true in recent weeks. In their final five league fixtures, the Terriers have averaged 4.6 shots on target and even if this figure lags behind Forest's numbers - as too does their seasonal chance conversion rate, though only marginally - they are still the side best equipped to handle a nervy grind. And Sunday will be a nervy grind.

No doubt Forest will begin brightly and full of endeavour but if their early charges bring no reward expect the odds to tilt in Huddersfield's favour, more suited as they are to dealing with adversity. Not for nothing have they won six from six of their penalty shoot-outs from previous play-off exploits.

It is highly relevant too that Forest have conceded 65% of their goals this term in the second period.

Back the Terriers to have 4 or more shots on target @

1.9

Play-Offs past

This was once a game known for producing classics but the last memorable encounter that stands out was a six-goal thriller back in 2011. In the past decade there has been a sharp decrease to 1.7 goals per game with three 0-0s in that period played out in regulation time and that's because so huge are the rewards now that teams who have been extravagantly good from August to May typically become timorous with the finish line in sight.

Should Sunday follow the same pattern don't be surprised if a shared caginess takes hold, with chances only appearing once tiredness descends. Don't be shocked either if a set-piece settles matters and in this respect it matters that only three Championship sides have scored more headers than Huddersfield this season.

Go for under 0.5 goals in first half @

2.5