Champions League Final Betting Tips: History could inform the outcome of Liverpool v Real Madrid

We don't need a form guide or history book to tell us that this Saturday's marquee event at the Stade de France has all the ingredients to be a Champions League classic.

Both Liverpool and Real Madrid are European royalty having reached 25 finals between them and lifted the big-eared trophy an astonishing 18 times. This season, La Liga winners Real and a treble-chasing Reds have scored 270 goals across all comps, equating to 2.3 goals per 90 combined. They have scored 3+ goals in 41% of their combined fixtures in 2021/22. They have collectively lost only 10% of their commitments this season.

Furthermore, these are unquestionably elite sides with firepower to spare. Up front, Karim Benzema, Vinicius Jr, Sadio Mane and Mo Salah have accumulated stats this term that require a double-take.

So, of course we should focus on the substantial attributes of both sides and anticipate a continental cracker. At the very least, a drab goalless encounter feels unlikely and a goal-fest feasible.

Yet before we concentrate exclusively on the present, the past needs a word, and that's because such is the scale and individuality of this fixture it has developed its own distinctive traits down the years; its own personality if you will though perhaps that's pushing it.

By studying the patterns of previous finals, it helps us better understand what very possibly awaits us in Paris.

First goal wins

A study conducted last year revealed that teams who score first win out 63% of the time. In the 21 Champions League finals contested since the turn of the century that figure rises sharply to 76%.

Naturally, the inclusion of extra-time and pens impacts on this increase, by taking away the option of a draw, yet it remains a persuasive figure all the same. Champions League final history informs us that whoever takes the lead this Saturday will prevail three times out of four.

So where does this leave us when assessing two sides who are formidably good front-runners? Between them, Liverpool and los Blancos have gone ahead on 89 occasions in 2021/22. Guess how many times they went on to lose? That's right, precisely none.

Not only is this a big consideration for the in-play markets, but such data also lends itself to the half time/full time options. Backing the favourites Liverpool to end each half ahead offers up a perfectly reasonable 3.3. The real value though lies in their opposition, especially as the Reds have shipped in early goals to Villarreal, Aston Villa, Southampton, and Wolves in recent weeks.

Timing is everything

Needless to say, the possibly of extra-time cannot be ruled out. It's just that when it comes to games entering nail-biting territory in this competition's past there is not much to report. On seven occasions since 2000, a final has reached 120 minutes, a 33.3% ratio that is distinctly ordinary. In that time period eight Europa League finals have gone to extra time. Six in FA Cup finals.

What does jump out however, is the high volume of late goals that have been scored in this prestigious fixture. Eleven of the 56 strikes witnessed this century have come beyond the 80th minute and that is 3% higher than the norm. All told, 59% of the final's goals were converted in the second period and that is also 3% above the norm.

What's more, it's a trend that is accelerating. A notable 70% of the last 20 Champions League final goals have been scored after the break.

Glory hunters

Those 56 goals equate to 2.6 per final and when once again reiterating the sustained prolificacy of both teams this season it is reasonable to anticipate a busy evening for Alisson and Thibaut Courtois.

As for who ultimately grabs the glory, the answer - when looking back at previous finals - leads us to an obvious conclusion, that being the ferociously lethal strikers each side possesses. Since 2000, 39% of Champions League final goals have been claimed by centre-forwards, a high percentage in an era when one is typically deployed up front, surrounded by wide attacking talent. It's a large number that evokes cliches involving big names and big stages and in Benzema and Salah this is a showpiece event that features Europe's most clinical finishers.

Discipline

An average of 4.4 yellow cards per final since 2000 is a touch over the average but the heightened drama of the occasion explains that away and besides, two volatile clashes featuring Real and Atletico in recent years considerably bumps up the quota. Elsewhere, there are plenty of twos and threes across the past couple of decades as officials try to allow one of the biggest games of their career flow without controversy.

This leads us to Clement Turpin, the referee this weekend, who has somewhat of a split personality it seems, racking up a no-nonsense card count in Ligue 1 but turning all zen for European encounters. Turpin officiated a Champions League knock-out game featuring Liverpool last term and didn't reach into his pocket once.

And he should - with heavy emphasis on the should - have a fairly routine 90 minutes or more in Paris. Both Real and Liverpool topped their respective fair play tables and even if that's not unusual for winning machines, an average of 1.6 yellows per league match between them is still commendable.

It's pertinent too that only one caution was dished out in their 2018 final.