PSG face Bayern Munich in the final of the Champions League and Jake Osgathorpe uses expected goals (xG) to assess the likely winners and the scoreline...
"We should see a lot of enthralling and classy attacking play from both sides, but if this turns into a shoot-out, which I think it will, then I fancy Bayern to come out on top with the model calculating that they have a 52% chance of winning the match."
Bayern to win an end-to-end encounter
PSG vs Bayern Munich
We have a thrilling Champions League final in store on Sunday, as two of Europe's best attacking sides clash in Lisbon.
PSG booked their place in their first ever UCL final in impressive fashion, thumping RB Leipzig in what was an almost perfect display in which they created a host of chances and allowed few (xG: RBL 1.0 - 3.1 PSG).
Their level of dominance was exceptional and hugely surprising, with the returns of Kylian Mbappe and Angel Di Maria proving key in them asserting themselves much more in their opponent's final third.
Thomas Tuchel's side have looked very impressive in both of their Champions League games since the break, finding a good balance between attack (6.2 xGF) and defence (1.4 xGA), though maintaining the latter could be difficult in this game.
It is worth pointing out just how tough PSG's run to the final has been, topping a group with La Liga winners Real Madrid (who also sat top of our La Liga xG table), before knocking out Bundesliga runners-up Dortmund, Italy's best team according to xG Atalanta and the second best team in Germany according to xG, RB Leipzig.
PSG's process has been excellent across their 10 UCL games (2.4 xGF, 1.1 xGA pg), and they will fancy their chances of exploiting Bayern's high-line with the searing pace of Mbappe and his fellow forwards.
Bayern Munich were emphatic winners also in the Champions League semi-final, but their game was much more tightly contested than PSG's, as Lyon created plenty of opportunities against the tournament favourites (xG: LYO 1.7 - 3.6 BMU).
Hansi Flick's side play with an arrogance and a mindset of 'we'll score more than you', which is why they leave themselves exposed at times, but their high-line, as Mark O'Haire pointed out on this weeks Football...Only Bettor, allows them to trap their opponents and win the ball back high up the pitch.
We saw this to great effect in the 8-2 win over Barcelona, where Bayern racked up 5.4 xGF, and I'm sure we will see it here, with the Bavarians set to create a host of chances again - while also allowing PSG in the back door.
Bayern have won their 10 UCL games by an aggregate of 42-8, and their underlying numbers in that time have been eye-watering, with Bayern averaging 3.5 xGF and 0.9 xGA per game.
We should see a lot of enthralling and classy attacking play from both sides, but if this turns into a shoot-out, which I think it will, then I fancy Bayern to come out on top with the model calculating that they have a 52% chance of winning the match.
Goals are extremely likely (72% BTTS, 54% O3.5), and while I'm not expecting a 10-goal thriller, it may not be far behind - 2-3.
Back the 2-3 @ [21.0]
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Infogol's 19/20 Correct Score P+L
PSG vs Bayern Munich: Back the 2-3 @ [21.0]