We are down to the final four in the Champions League and Jake Osgathorpe uses expected goals (xG) to assess the likely winners and scorelines of both semi-finals...
"Bayern have won every game they have played in the Champions League this season, with their underlying process reading a quite ridiculous 3.5 xGF and 0.8 xGA per game."
PSG to edge out RBL
RB Leipzig vs PSG
RB Leipzig caused a bit of an upset in beating Atletico Madrid in the quarter-finals, but it was a solid defensive display that saw them progress, allowing just 0.35 non-pen xG.
They were really impressive on the night, dominating Diego Simeone's side and controlling them exceptionally well throughout with their clever tactical approach.
Throughout the UCL, Julian Nagelsmann's side have been fantastic, topping a competitive group before breezing past Tottenham and edging out Atletico, with their process very solid (1.9 xGF, 1.1 xGA pg).
PSG were minutes away from exiting the competition against Atalanta, but scored twice after the 90th minute to turn the game around, with two unlikely scorers (Marquinhos and Choupo-Moting).
They rightly won the game after a dominant display, according to expected goals (xG: ATA 0.4 - 3.1 PSG), with the turning point being the introduction of Kylian Mbappe.
After the youngster's introduction, Les Parisiens racked up 2.1 xGF, with his pace and direct play giving them a different dynamic, and it gave Atalanta another player to worry about.
He is expected to be fit enough to start this match, and Angel Di Maria, who is also a crucial player for the French champions, is back from suspension, both are huge boosts to Thomas Tuchel.
Infogol calculates a 47% chance of PSG winning this game in 90 minutes, with their additional quality likely to prove decisive, but we should be in for another entertaining game (76% O2.5, 74% BTTS) - 1-2.
Back the 1-2 @ [9.4]
Bayern to win comfortably
Lyon vs Bayern Munich
Lyon caused a huge shock by knocking out Manchester City.
No one gave them a chance really. They were priced at [12.0] outsiders to win the match, and [9.0] to qualify from the tie, and while they won 3-1 on the night, they were fortunate at both ends of the pitch.
Les Gones were extremley clinical with their opportunities, scoring three times from chances equating to 0.9 xGF, two of which were City errors, while Rudi Garcia's side only conceding once from 2.7 xGA, with Gabriel Jesus and Raheem Sterling squandering guilt-edge opportunities.
They rode their luck against Juventus too after allowing 3.1 xGA, so are conceding a lot of good chances at the moment, which doesn't bode well heading into this game.
Bayern Munich were emphatic to say the least in their quarter-final, completely dismantling Barcelona on the night, running up an eye-watering 8-2 scoreline.
Hansi Flick's side continue to look imperious, with that success their 19th straight win in all competitions, and it was the manner of victory that was so impressive, as the Bavarians were ruthless in their approach, racking up 5.4 xGF.
They have won every game they have played in the Champions League this season, with their underlying process reading a quite ridiculous 3.5 xGF and 0.8 xGA per game.
We think this will be a step too far for a Lyon team who have shown defensive vulnerabilities of late that have gone unpunished, that won't be the case here against an unforgiving Bayern team.
Bayern have an 82% chance of winning according to the Infogol model, but we may not see a hat-full of goals (54% U3.5), and it is expected that the French side fail to get on the scoresheet (55% BTTS 'no') - 0-3.
Back the 0-3 @ [10.0]
For more information on Infogol, visit infogol.net
Infogol's 19/20 Correct Score P+L
RB Leipzig vs PSG: Back the 1-2 @ [9.4]
Lyon vs Bayern Munich: Back the 0-3 @ [10.0]