Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol Tom Victor provides Bundesliga scoreline predictions ahead of a huge game in Wolfsburg...
Wolfsburg's unbeaten home record finally fell last weekend as they suffered a 3-2 defeat to Bayern Munich, and their game against Dortmund now takes on some real significance.
Köln to cling on to survival hopes
Köln's surprise win over RB Leipzig went against the xG pattern of the game, but interim boss Friedhelm Funkel won't be complaining. The task at hand is now to ensure that result doesn't do to waste, and hosts Augsburg probably won't need to get too nervous about their own Bundesliga future if - as anticipated by Infogol's model - the league's 17th place side earns back-to-back wins for only the second time this season.
Hoffenheim to close in on top-half spot
After turning around a two-goal deficit to beat Borussia Mönchengladbach in midweek, Hoffenheim ought to be in decent spirits. Sebastian Hoeneß hasn't been able to get enough consistency from his team to mount a European challenge, but three games unbeaten against three of last season's top five bodes well ahead of a trip to Freiburg, where Infogol makes Hoffenheim narrow favourites to take the points.
Mainz's long unbeaten run to finally end
A run of seven games without defeat has lifted Mainz five points clear of relegation danger, which is just as well considering the game that awaits them on Saturday. Bayern turned a two-goal deficit into a 5-2 win in the reverse fixture, and are expected to complete the double over Bo Svensson's side despite the Dane - appointed one day after the loss at the Allianz Arena - helping revive the side.
Union to hand Werder a concerning defeat
Things are beginning to get a little too close for comfort as far as Werder Bremen are concerned, with six straight defeats leaving Florian Kohfeldt's side just four points north of the relegation play-off place and surely worried about Hertha Berlin's games in hand. First up, though, is the other side from the capital, and Infogol expects a Union side averaging just 0.98 xGA at home to shut out Kohfeldt's men.
Dortmund to blow top four race wide open
Wolfsburg's unbeaten home record finally fell last weekend as they suffered a 3-2 defeat to Bayern Munich, and their game against Dortmund now takes on some real significance. An Infogol-supported win for the visitors would represent a third on the spin - most recently a dominant attacking display against Union Berlin - and while Edin Terzić's men would still be outside the top four it would mean those above them have little margin for error.
Away form to harm Frankfurt at BayArena
While Eintracht Frankfurt remain unbeaten at home, only four teams have a higher xGA average on the road than their 1.67 per game. This could be a problem away to a Leverkusen side coming off back-to-back home wins, and Infogol backs the home side to avenge the defeat they suffered at Deutsche Bank Park in the first league game of 2021.
Stuttgart to suffer a fourth straight defeat
Stuttgart have begun to run out of steam without the injured Silas Wamangituka, with three straight defeats putting their hopes of a top-half finish in jeopardy, and their chances of taking anything from their trip to Leipzig will rely on them maintaining an impressive 1.79 xGA per away game - and the goals to go with it - without the young striker. Infogol doesn't see that happening, backing Julian Nagelsmann's hosts to rebound from their midweek setback inn Köln.
Gladbach to keep Arminia in danger
Arminia have tightened up at the back since riding their luck in Mainz at the start of the month, averaging just 0.46 xGA per game across their last three in the league, but their woes in front of goal present the bigger problem ahead of their trip to Borussia-Park. Only Schalke have a worse away xGF than Frank Kramer's side, and Infogol's model is backing an inconsistent Gladbach to have few concerns against the strugglers.