Armenia v Republic of Ireland Tips: Kenny starts second chapter

Armenia v Republic of Ireland
Saturday June 4, 14:00
Live On RTE/Premier Sports

The next chapter

It may be disliked by elite figures in the club game and of little significance to top countries who routinely qualify for tournaments but the Nations League matters more as you work your way down the European rankings.

For countries like the Republic of Ireland, desperate to return to the major finals, any avenue to get there is of interest.

And that is why there won't be an end of season feel around this gathering for Stephen Kenny's side.

Saturday's game with Armenia kicks off the most important ten days of 2022 for his squad with home matches with Ukraine and Scotland to follow before a return encounter with the Ukrainians on neutral soil.

A strong performance in the Nations League could guarantee Ireland a Euro 2024 playoff before regular qualifying begins next year; a significant safety net for a country that always tends to be around the cutoff point whether it's a 16 or 24 team competition.

It would also give them the chance of a higher seeding for October's draw in Frankfurt so there's a two pronged reason to be seriously motivated to deliver.

Kenny has a new contract in his back pocket and discussion around his future has eased. Still, there is an expectation that progress will be reflected in competitive results this year after a slow start to his tenure.

All 27 players he named in his squad reported for duty at the weekend. The absence of suspicious summer cryoffs - which often weaken countries around this time of year - suggests Ireland mean business.

Rule out complacency as a factor here. Ireland are taking this very seriously.

Armenian weakness

What will they face on Saturday?

Armenia's recent results paints a puzzling picture.

And their squad is short on recognisable names with the international retirement of Roma's Henrikh Mkhitaryan, their top scorer and best known player, still a big talking point.

He announced his decision to concentrate on club football in March, prior to an international window where Armenia suffered a 9-0 humiliation in Norway.

They were reduced to ten men early but it points to how they can really lose their way on a bad day.

Armenia are in the same Nations League qualifying pool as Ireland, Scotland and Ukraine because they won their League C group in the autumn and winter of 2020.

Along the way, they got the better of North Macedonia, a team which has improved dramatically since then.

A year later, Armenia lost 5-0 at home to North Macedonia in a World Cup qualifier in Yerevan.

Armenia had won their three opening games of their ill-fated attempt to reach Qatar, including home wins over Iceland and Romania.

But they took three points from their remaining seven fixtures, shipping six in Germany as well as their Macedonian drubbing.

The nadir was arguably a home draw with Liechtenstein.

They like to retain possession, but they are a team that lacks consistency and appear to be on a downward spiral.

Irish value

One thing that can be predicted with certainty as regards Armenia is the weather.

With the 5pm kickoff local time (2pm Irish) it will be warm in the stadium with temperatures expected to be north of 30 degrees.

This will be unusual for the guests and this element has to be factored into consideration as regards staking. Don't go mad here.

However, there's ample reason to believe that the 2.111/10 about a away win represents good value.

Ireland are a better side than Armenia and they have performed well on their travels under Kenny, especially against teams who try and take the game to them. Armenia do sit in at times and rely on their front four but they are expected to take a few more risks here.

They will likely view this fixture as their best chance to get points on the board and they do have beef with Ireland dating back a decade when controversial refereeing decisions allowed a key Euro 2012 qualifier in Dublin to go the way of then boss Giovanni Trapattoni.

However, Armenia are a diminished force now and their approach to this encounter could well play into Irish hands.

Bet building

A win bet in the main market is the straightforward recommendation but if you want a fun bet at a longer price then there are bet building opportunities.

Rotherham's Chiedozie Ogbene is now a key player for Kenny who has a knack of getting into the right place at the right time; the team's style allows him to run off Callum Robinson and find impactful positions.

Put a goal or assist for Ogbene in with an Ireland win and 'No' to a goal scored in both halves - a low scoring affair is envisaged - and you've got a 11.28257/25 bet for sport.