Rochdale v Plymouth: Hardie to see Pilgrims not winning

Ian Lamont
04 December 2021
4:00 mins min read

Ryan Lowe's Plymouth should squeeze past Rochdale in the FA Cup

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A striker in form and a team flying high in League One should be too much for Rochdale in the FA Cup, says Ian Lamont, who senses some goals...

"Rochdale's Jake Beesley and, from midfield, Alex Newby both have five goals, but the worry for Robbie Stockdale is whether the defence can hold off opponents riding high in the level above."

Rochdale v Plymouth
FA Cup Second Round
Sunday December 5, 12.15 kick-off
Live on ITV

Can Rochdale's stubborn return of five home draws (and two wins) - contributing to a 10-game unbeaten run - withstand Plymouth's fine exploits in League One? The Pilgrims' performance graph in recent years mirrors Rochdale's, with one firmly going up under the manager, Ryan Lowe, who lifted them out of League Two, sitting in the top four in League One this season.

The visitors might have lost three games in a row, but two of those sides, Wycombe and Wigan, now sit above them. It is not like they are losing to teams at the bottom.

Dale have a lot to make up

Robbie Stockdale is steadily building a side capable of shinning up the table, but progress is measured, against a backdrop of ownership wrangles. Any manager does well to keep such well-known and public stories at bay from his mind, so the team can concentrate on the football.

Rochdale are 3.814/5 in the match market, while Plymouth, who have strong away form with four wins and three draws, are 2.26/5 and that draw which seems so familiar at Spotland is 3.814/5.

While Plymouth are likely to feature a couple of players on their return to fitness in the nine substitutes allowed, they will doubtless treat this contest as seriously as a League One tie. Why not? The financial rewards are high in the FA Cup. They have accumulated television fees for two rounds now. There is no need to field any sort of weakened team. This is a chance in particular for all-action midfielder Panutche Camara to show what he can do, with rumours already linking him with a January move.

Somehow, Rochdale have to contain Ryan Hardie, who has nine goals this season, who has Kieran Agard snapping at his heels from the bench for a chance to show what he can do after a couple of goals in the EFL Trophy. Luke Jephcott is another danger man, scoring five from midfield.

Can the hosts keep up with that? Jake Beesley and, from midfield, Alex Newby both have five goals, but the worry for Stockdale is whether the defence can hold off opponents riding high in the league above.

They have four clean sheets this season, beat ambitious National League side Notts County in the last round only after a replay and a 90th minute goal through Beesley and have drawn five of their last six, including the FA Cup tie and replay. There's a vulnerability at the back, it seems.

They might be unbeaten in five league and FA Cup games at home, but only have one win. Plymouth's defeat at Charlton recently was their first loss away since the season's opening day. The week before, they won 4-1 at Accrington. They should have the quality to overcome their hosts.

Both sides can score but Pilgrims pinch win

Rochdale have only drawn one blank in front of goal in eight games, indicating they have plenty of confidence going forward. And perhaps that they are aware they are also likely to concede.

I think both teams will score, it's just a case of fathoming the best betting market to take advantage.

Both both teams to score is short enough at 1.768/11 while over 2.5 goals is likely to settle at just under evens at about 1.9620/21. Over 3.5 goals @ 3.412/5 just might be pushing my luck. Therefore, I think a 2-1 scoreline to the visitors @ 9.08/1 in the correct score market might do the trick.

Hardie to set the pace

Camara, listed as a striker by some, has a more withdrawn role in practice and so will be about 17.016/1 for first scorer, as he has netted just twice in 20 starts. He clearly isn't as likely to net as Hardie. The latter scores most of his goals as Plymouth's opening scorer. Remarkably, he is only a touch shorter on Sportsbook, at 4/1 to score first ahead of Jephcott at 5/1.

For Rochdale, Beesley and Newby are both 7/1 and both capable of busting the net early in matches. However, if you fancy one of them to score at all I think the 12/5 on scoring at any time might be best, because the visitors should set the pace. They should bear out the Opta stats that Rochdale are winless in their last four home FA Cup matches, whereas Plymouth have won their last five against lower division rivals.