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Lay Newcastle on the Betfair Exchange @ 1.794/5
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Back Sunderland to win & under 2.5 goals @ 9/110.00
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Read Betfair's new 90 Minute Payout offer here
Sunderland v Newcastle
Saturday January 06, 12.45
Live on ITV & ITVX
Toon unbackable on derby day
Those that read my weekly Notebook column won't be surprised with my angle on the game here. I'm very keen to lay Newcastle at 1.794/5.
The Toon have gone from a team that were hard to beat to one that is now very easy to create good quality chances against, especially away from home.
Newcastle conceding 7.27 worth of expected goals in a Premier League match at Liverpool was beyond alarming.
There was a severe lack of cohesion in their defending in that 4-2 Anfield defeat and not once did they muster the confidence or energy to sustain attacks towards the Liverpool goal. There seems to be cracks developing in what looked an unshakable team spirit.
Newcastle have lost nine Premier League games this season. They lost just five games all last season. It's now seven loses in their last eight games across all competitions and they have picked up just five Premier League away points - only Sheffield Utd (2) have fewer.
The 7.27 worth of expected goals shipped at Anfield now means only Luton have a worse combined expected goals against record away from home this season than Newcastle's (23.52).
A fixture of such importance, riddled with huge expectation and arguably the game of the weekend, is the last thing Eddie Howe needs right now. It's not a tournament he's ever really flourished in either as a manager, never making it past the fifth round in 13 seasons. That includes getting knocked out at first hurdle in each of the last two seasons at Newcastle by Cambridge and Sheff Wed - both League One teams at the time.
Furthermore, Sunderland have an excellent recent record against Newcastle, boasting an unbeaten run in their last nine meetings, winning six of the last seven. That obviously comes with the caveat that this is the first meeting between the teams since the Saudi investment arrived.
Go fishing for a big-price Sunderland win
Although I'll happily hit the lay button on Newcastle at short odds, it's not a betting tactic for everyone. There is however enough juice in the Sunderland win price of 3/14.00 to go hunting a big-priced winner.
Sunderland possess very reliable and hardworking players that don't give much away but also don't exactly know how to cut loose. All 10 of their last 10 fixtures have fallen under the 3.5 goal line with just 18 goals scored combined in those fixtures, equating to a per-90 average of just 1.8 goals. Meanwhile, Newcastle's attack is floundering, scoring just six goals in their last eight fixtures.
Howe spoke of this lack of fluidity in attack during his press conference, he said: "Confidence is a very fragile thing for the players, so anything that helps them find their best rhythm as quickly as possible is what we are seeking."
I'll be surprised if Howe heads to Wearside with any desire to shoot the lights out. It will be safety first. This should lead to a low-scoring affair with under 2.5 goals on offer at 23/202.15. If you combine the Sunderland win angle with under 2.5 goals you conjure up a tasty looking 9/1 shot to cheer on.