Sunday FA Cup Tips: Leicester will beat familiar foes

Leicester manager Brendan Rodgers.
Will Brendan Rodgers be applauding his Leicester side after their match with Brentford?

Dan Fitch can see the similarities between Leicester and their fourth round opponents Brentford, as he previews that game and Fulham's match with Burnley...

"In the last round of the FA Cup they faced another Championship side in Stoke and thrashed the eighth placed team 4-0 at the Britannia Stadium."

Back Leicester to beat Brentford at 1.748/11

Foxes won't get stung by Bees

Brentford 5.49/2 v Leicester 1.748/11; The Draw 3.9
Sunday 24 January, 14:30
Live on BT Sport 1

Brentford reached the semi-finals of the EFL Cup and looks set to be tough opposition for Leicester in the fourth round of the FA Cup.

The Londoners are currently third in the Championship and their recent defeat away at Spurs is their only loss from their last 19 games (W11 D7). Their EFL Cup run saw them defeat Premier League clubs such as Southampton, West Brom, Fulham and Newcastle en-route to the semi-finals.

Brentford and Leicester have much in common, Both punch above their weights in their respective divisions, due to consistently making the right decisions when it comes to appointing managers and recruitment of players.

The Bees have lost two of their star players since reaching the play-off final last season, with Ollie Watkins moving to Aston Villa and Said Benrahma joining West Ham. Yet they remain in the hunt for promotion, with a new look attack. Ivan Toney has scored 16 goals since being signed from League One side Peterborough in August.

Leicester have an attacking talisman to replaced themselves, after the news that Jamie Vardy will be out for some weeks with an injury. Brendan Rodgers will hope that the absence of the striker will not disrupt his side too much, for they have just put in two excellent performances over the last week, beating first Southampton 1-0 and then Chelsea 2-0.

The Foxes are third in the Premier League, just two points behind the leaders Manchester United. In the last round of the FA Cup they faced another Championship side in Stoke and thrashed the eighth placed team 4-0 at the Britannia Stadium. As good as Brentford are, Leicester could prove value at 1.748/11 to win.

Low scoring game between Premier League pair

Fulham 2.3211/8 v Burnley 3.412/5; The Draw 3.412/5
Sunday 24 January, 14:30
Live on BT Sport Extra

This all-Premier League clash involves two teams who are playing better than their position in the table might indicate.

Fulham are 18th, but are competitive in every match these days, even if the result doesn't go their way. That was the case last weekend when they came close to holding Chelsea to a draw before conceding a late goal and also in midweek, when they took the lead against Manchester United, only to lose 2-1.

As well as Fulham are playing, they will go down unless they start winning matches soon, with Scott Parker's side having gone eight games without a victory in the Premier League (D5 L3). Fulham can be given something of a free pass considering the strength of the teams that they've played during this run, but with games against Brighton and West Brom to come after this cup tie, winning at least one of those is a necessity.

Burnley opened up a seven point lead over Fulham with a historic 1-0 win at Liverpool on Thursday, when they became the first away team to win a Premier League game at Anfield for four years. Since the start of December, the Clarets have been very good defensively, only conceding five goals in their last nine Premier League games.

Both managers rotated a little in the last round, but ultimately picked pretty strong sides. That was against lower league opposition, so it would be a gamble for either manager to go too weak in what looks likely to be a close game.

Under 2.5 goals seems a safe bet at 1.738/11, landing in all of Burnley's last six matches and in eight of Fulham's last nine. The value would seem to be with Burnley at these odds, with the visitors 2.47/5 in the Draw No Bet market to pull off a second successive away win.

Dan Fitch 2020/21 Season P/L

Staked: 442.00 pts
Returned: 451.85 pts
P/L: +9.85 pts

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