Newport v Brighton Tips: Back draw in FA Cup Third Round

Newport County v Brighton & Hove Albion
FA Cup Third Round
Sunday 10th January 19:45
Live on BT Sport 1

Tricky preparations, for Newport and Albion's Potter

Newport have a huge reputation for cup giant killings in recent years, having reached the fourth round of the FA Cup in two of the past three seasons, emphasise Opta. Few can have failed to hear about the exploits of the Welsh side.

Sadly for them, it has meant some of their best players leaving for higher level clubs rather than translated into promotion of their own, but they do go into this match having led League Two for several months until the New Year, when Carlisle United went top.

Brighton, until last season, have done pretty well in the FA Cup during two of three consecutive seasons (before this one) in the Premier League. A year ago, however, they lost to Sheffield Wednesday. Opta say they have not been eliminated in consecutive seasons against lower ranked sides since a run of four from 1994-98. Manager Graham Potter will not want to add to the statistic and will be very wary of Newport's cup reputation.

The Seagulls have not had a great string of results recently, winning two and drawing eight of their 17 Premier League matches, leaving them fourth from bottom. Therefore could they go the way of Leeds (then of the Championship), Leicester and Middlesbrough (in a replay) by losing at Valley Parade, or even be held to a draw over 90 minutes like Tottenham. Millwall beat the Exiles last season in London, while Manchester City shook off their challenge in a previous year with a 4-1 win in Wales. Newport have also beaten Swansea and Watford in the League Cup this season and only lost on penalties to Newcastle - all at home.

Flynn needs to put forward his best Di-Amond

The manager who has overseen all the cup glories mentioned above is Michael Flynn, who pulled Newport out of the relegation mire at the back end of the 2016-17 season. He faces a few headaches going into this weekend though.

Loan defender Brandon Cooper, 20, has been recalled by Swansea. Just as bad at the other end of the field, Scott Twine, 19, has been recalled by League One strugglers Swindon after a fine half-season in which he has scored seven and contributed seven assists. His immediate replacement, West Brom's Owen Windsor, has already spent time on loan at Grimsby and is cup tied.

For whatever reason Flynn has been saving Padraig Amond, the striker's time is surely now. The Irishman, 32, has made as many league appearances off the bench (nine) as in the starting XI this season, but started three of the four League Cup ties, plus began EFL Trophy matches. In last season's shortened campaign, he'd started 32 games in all competitions and made 10 substitute appearances. Twine had been allowed to flourish alongside Tristan Abrahams.

Amond has still tucked in a few key goals though, including one, as a substitute, to help see off Salford City in the last round. It was a penalty, which Matt Dolan, Josh Sheehan and Abrahams are all also capable of taking.

Brighton have their own potent weapon in Frenchman Neal Maupay, who has netted six times this season - and 10 last - at a level three times higher than Newport. Unlike some clubs who have ended higher than Brighton's bottom six placings in their three finished Premier League seasons, the Seagulls don't seem to have shied away from a cup run. A battling 3-3 draw at home to Wolves last Saturday, from 3-1 down at half-time, showed their fighting spirit.

The visitors should have the quality to win, of course, but so did several other opponents who have fallen at Valley Parade. Potter's team might not be feeling especially confident about Premier League matches. But they will surely see this as a chance to cement or push for regular places, although Danny Welbeck is ruled out through injury. It is a chance for some to continue to show what they can do, for example Ben White at the right of a defensive three. Adam Lallana misses out through illness and who knows if highly rated and coveted Yves Bissouma will be risked from the start?

Even if Potter feels they have had a "positive week" after looking back at that comeback against Wanderers, they certainly can't afford to be complacent against a team steeped in cup joy - if not personally then tales from team-mates. A draw over 90 minutes could ensue and appeals most in the match odds market at 4.67/2, against the home win at 6.611/2. Brighton to win makes little appeal in the circumstances, at 1.584/7. And if the draw argument appeals, it's not a stretch to imagine Newport can hold on for penalties, through which they are 14-1 to win on Sportsbook with Brighton 12-1.

Back a score draw over 90 minutes

With the above in mind, and "both teams to score" under events, the layers clearly think that Newport, as the underdogs, can score, as well as Brighton. As the Exiles have won seven at home in the league and drawn one, losing just once, it seems fair enough.

Their tenacious spirit ought to be able to nullify Brighton's attacking forces, whether the supply line comes from the reliable captain Lewis Dunk or White, who is developing fast.

Newport have plenty of attacking threats whether it be from Jamie Proctor, who scored in the last round but who is not a regular, midfielder Joss Ladabie, who seems due a goal after only scoring once this season - in the League Cup - or the occasional defender contributing. A tight game can ensue and a 1-1 scoreline at 10.09/1 is only fractionally bigger in the correct score market than Brighton winning 1-0, 2-1 or 2-0, each around 8.07/1.

Maupay to score, but will that be enough?

Maupay leads the "first scorer" market at 3-1 on Sportsbook and there are four further players ahead of the first Newport one, Tristan Abrahams, at 6-1. He's 5-2 to score at any time as opposed to Maupay in that market at evens. It might pay to wait for the starting line-ups and hit the Exchange on the day, looking for those prices.

Amond remains the name most likely to attract attention, from pundits and Brighton defenders alike. He can't be ignored at 3-1 to score at any time, because if Newport do go behind they are not likely to lie down. Going ahead, by scoring first, against the "giant" is always the more difficult thing. He's 15-2 to be the game's first scorer.